Since peaking at more than 200 MMbbl in 2000, offshore oil production in Australia has declined steadily by falling to below 100 MMbbl in 2011. Various initiatives and policies have been introduced by the Australian Government to encourage exploration of frontier basins to find a new oil province that may stop this production decline.
By analysing the exploration and production profiles of established petroleum provinces in offshore Australia, the reasons behind similarities, differences and trends can be understood. This knowledge can be applied to future exploration efforts and provides a variety of possible outcomes should success come in immature and frontier provinces.
Analysis of data mainly from the Bonaparte, Browse, Gippsland, North Carnarvon and, to a lesser extent, the Otway and Perth basins, shows that early success typifies these petroleum provinces.
The degree of early success is, however, not always a good indication of later exploration results. While the creaming curves of some basins conform to the hypothetical basin creaming curve, characterised by large initial reserves increases and falling discovery size across time, it is evident that this cannot be universally applied. Considerable success much later in the exploration history of a basin is demonstrated, by success driven policy implementation, exploration incentivisation and increases in data acquisition.
In this extended abstract, the importance of using advances in technology is demonstrated by reserves additions following the opening up of deepwater areas and the increased use of high-density 2D seismic and 3D seismic data. This information supports the notion that frontier areas may hold the key to alleviating dependence on foreign supply, success in immature basins is still possible and should not be overlooked.
