Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

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Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli1807.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (8) ◽

pp. 1944-1961 ◽

Cited By ~ 75

Author(s):

Bariş Önol ◽

Fredrick H. M. Semazzi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Temperature Increase ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Change Projections ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

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Development of Statistically Downscaled Regional Climate Model based on Representative Concentration Pathways for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/945/1/012022 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 945 (1) ◽

pp. 012022

Author(s):

Chin Kah Seng ◽

Tan Kok Weng ◽

Akihiko Nakayama

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Peninsular Malaysia ◽

Future Climate ◽

Monthly Average ◽

Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Climate change is one of the challenging global issues that our world is facing and it is intensely debated on the international agenda. It is a fact that climate change has brought about many disastrous events on a global scale which affect our livelihoods. Climate models are commonly used by researchers to study the magnitude of the changing climate and to simulate future climate projections. Most climate models are developed based on various interactions among the Earth’s climate components such as the land surface, oceans, atmosphere and sea-ice. In this study, the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was statistically downscaled to develop a regional climate model (RCM) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The RCM will be used to simulate the average minimum and maximum temperatures and average precipitation for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia for the years 2006 to 2100. The simulated data were bias corrected using the historical observation data of monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures and monthly average rainfall retrieved from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD). The different trends of the simulated data for all the three locations based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for future climate projection.

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Regional climate model simulations of extreme air temperature in Greece. Abnormal or common records in the future climate?

Atmospheric Research ◽

10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.02.005 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 152 ◽

pp. 43-60 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

P.T. Nastos ◽

J. Kapsomenakis

Keyword(s):

Regional Climate Model ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The Future ◽

Climate Model Simulations

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Assessment of climate change exposure of tourism in Hungary using observations and regional climate model data

Hungarian Geographical Bulletin ◽

10.15201/hungeobull.70.3.2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 70 (3) ◽

pp. 215-231

Author(s):

Attila Kovács ◽

◽

Andrea Király ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Strategy Development ◽

Climate Index ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

The Future ◽

Tourism Climate

Climate constitutes key resources for tourism since it influences the range of tourism activities and the development of tourism supply. Tourism is highly sensitive to changes in climate elements. It is extremely important for adaptation strategy-making to explore whether the tourism climate conditions in a given region and at a specific time are appropriate and how they may change in the future. This is described by the exposure of the tourism sector to climate conditions and climate change. In this study, we analyse the exposure of tourism for Hungary on a district level and every month (from March to November) with the help of the modified Tourism Climate Index. First, the present conditions are evaluated based on a gridded observational database CarpatClim-HU, which forms the basis for assessing the future conditions. Afterwards, the expected future circumstances are analysed using regional climate model outputs. In order to interpret the uncertainties of the climate projections properly, we use two different model results (HIRHAM5 and RACMO22E) relying on two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results have demonstrated that the most favourable conditions are found in spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), while in summer (JJA) a decline in climate potential is observed. According to the future tendencies, generally, a decline is expected between May and September, but the other investigated months usually bring an improvement. For a given emission scenario, the expected trend is quite similar for the two model experiments, while for a given climate model, the use of RCP8.5 scenario indicates larger changes than RCP4.5. The results prove that climate change will have an obvious impact on tourism potential in Hungary, and therefore tourism strategy development has to take into account this effect more than before.

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