Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations Using a Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model with Urban Canopy

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

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A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments

International Journal of Biometeorology ◽

10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 64 (10) ◽

pp. 1709-1727

Author(s):

Inne Vanderkelen ◽

Jakob Zscheischler ◽

Lukas Gudmundsson ◽

Klaus Keuler ◽

Francois Rineau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Responses ◽

Model Projection ◽

Global Mean

Abstract Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.

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Climate Change Impacts on Jordan River Flow: Downscaling Application from a Regional Climate Model

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/2010jhm1177.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 860-879 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

Rana Samuels ◽

Alon Rimmer ◽

Andreas Hartmann ◽

Simon Krichak ◽

Pinhas Alpert

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Local Level ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Jordan River ◽

Response Models

Abstract The integration of climate change projections into hydrological and other response models used for water resource planning and management is challenging given the varying spatial resolutions of the different models. In general, climate models are generated at spatial ranges of hundreds of kilometers, while hydrological models are generally watershed specific and based on input at the station or local level. This paper focuses on techniques applied to downscale large-scale climate model simulations to the spatial scale required by local response models (hydrological, agricultural, soil). Specifically, results were extracted from a regional climate model (RegCM) simulation focused on the Middle East, which was downscaled to a scale appropriate for input into a local watershed model [the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE)] calibrated for the upper Jordan River catchment. With this application, the authors evaluated the effect of future climate change on the amount and form of precipitation (rain or snow) and its effect on streamflow in the Jordan River and its tributaries—the major water resources in the region. They found that the expected changes in the form of precipitation are nearly insignificant in terms of changing the timing of streamflow. Additionally, the results suggest a future increase in evaporation and decrease in average annual rainfall, supporting expected changes based on global models in this region.

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Development of Statistically Downscaled Regional Climate Model based on Representative Concentration Pathways for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/945/1/012022 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 945 (1) ◽

pp. 012022

Author(s):

Chin Kah Seng ◽

Tan Kok Weng ◽

Akihiko Nakayama

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Peninsular Malaysia ◽

Future Climate ◽

Monthly Average ◽

Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Climate change is one of the challenging global issues that our world is facing and it is intensely debated on the international agenda. It is a fact that climate change has brought about many disastrous events on a global scale which affect our livelihoods. Climate models are commonly used by researchers to study the magnitude of the changing climate and to simulate future climate projections. Most climate models are developed based on various interactions among the Earth’s climate components such as the land surface, oceans, atmosphere and sea-ice. In this study, the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was statistically downscaled to develop a regional climate model (RCM) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The RCM will be used to simulate the average minimum and maximum temperatures and average precipitation for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia for the years 2006 to 2100. The simulated data were bias corrected using the historical observation data of monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures and monthly average rainfall retrieved from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD). The different trends of the simulated data for all the three locations based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for future climate projection.

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Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2014/753790 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ji-Woo Lee ◽

Suryun Ham ◽

Song-You Hong ◽

Kei Yoshimura ◽

Minsu Joh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Simulation ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Future

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

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