Projection of Future Climate Change over Japan in Ensemble Simulations with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

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A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments

International Journal of Biometeorology ◽

10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 64 (10) ◽

pp. 1709-1727

Author(s):

Inne Vanderkelen ◽

Jakob Zscheischler ◽

Lukas Gudmundsson ◽

Klaus Keuler ◽

Francois Rineau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Responses ◽

Model Projection ◽

Global Mean

Abstract Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.

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Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1867 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hussain Alsarraf

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Arabian Peninsula ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Dynamic Downscaling ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Average Maximum ◽

The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period&#8217;s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1&#9702;C to 3 &#9702;C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.&#160;

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Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Chinese Science Bulletin ◽

10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 57 (10) ◽

pp. 1188-1195 ◽

Cited By ~ 109

Author(s):

XueJie Gao ◽

Ying Shi ◽

DongFeng Zhang ◽

Filippo Giorgi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate

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Climate Change Impacts on Jordan River Flow: Downscaling Application from a Regional Climate Model

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/2010jhm1177.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 860-879 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

Rana Samuels ◽

Alon Rimmer ◽

Andreas Hartmann ◽

Simon Krichak ◽

Pinhas Alpert

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Local Level ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Jordan River ◽

Response Models

Abstract The integration of climate change projections into hydrological and other response models used for water resource planning and management is challenging given the varying spatial resolutions of the different models. In general, climate models are generated at spatial ranges of hundreds of kilometers, while hydrological models are generally watershed specific and based on input at the station or local level. This paper focuses on techniques applied to downscale large-scale climate model simulations to the spatial scale required by local response models (hydrological, agricultural, soil). Specifically, results were extracted from a regional climate model (RegCM) simulation focused on the Middle East, which was downscaled to a scale appropriate for input into a local watershed model [the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE)] calibrated for the upper Jordan River catchment. With this application, the authors evaluated the effect of future climate change on the amount and form of precipitation (rain or snow) and its effect on streamflow in the Jordan River and its tributaries—the major water resources in the region. They found that the expected changes in the form of precipitation are nearly insignificant in terms of changing the timing of streamflow. Additionally, the results suggest a future increase in evaporation and decrease in average annual rainfall, supporting expected changes based on global models in this region.

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