scholarly journals Robust Production Planning in Fashion Apparel Industry under Demand Uncertainty via Conditional Value at Risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Ait-Alla ◽  
Michael Teucke ◽  
Michael Lütjen ◽  
Samaneh Beheshti-Kashi ◽  
Hamid Reza Karimi
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Proper Time ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Fashion Apparel ◽  
Production Orders

This paper presents a mathematical model for robust production planning. The model helps fashion apparel suppliers in making decisions concerning allocation of production orders to different production plants characterized by different lead times and production costs, and in proper time scheduling and sequencing of these production orders. The model aims at optimizing these decisions concerning objectives of minimal production costs and minimal tardiness. It considers several factors such as the stochastic nature of customer demand, differences in production and transport costs and transport times between production plants in different regions. Finally, the model is applied to a case study. The results of numerical computations are presented. The implications of the model results on different fashion related product types and delivery strategies, as well as the model’s limitations and potentials for expansion, are discussed. Results indicate that the production planning model using conditional value at risk (CVaR) as the risk measure performs robustly and provides flexibility in decision analysis between different scenarios.

scholarly journals ESTIMASI NILAI CONDITIONAL VALUE AT RISK MENGGUNAKAN FUNGSI GAUSSIAN COPULA

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 188
Author(s):  
HERLINA HIDAYATI ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Gaussian Copula ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Measurement Tools

Copula is already widely used in financial assets, especially in risk management. It is due to the ability of copula, to capture the nonlinear dependence structure on multivariate assets. In addition, using copula function doesn’t require the assumption of normal distribution. There fore it is suitable to be applied to financial data. To manage a risk the necessary measurement tools can help mitigate the risks. One measure that can be used to measure risk is Value at Risk (VaR). Although VaR is very popular, it has several weaknesses. To overcome the weakness in VaR, an alternative risk measure called CVaR can be used. The porpose of this study is to estimate CVaR using Gaussian copula. The data we used are the closing price of Facebook and Twitter stocks. The results from the calculation using 90%  confidence level showed that the risk that may be experienced is at 4,7%, for 95% confidence level it is at 6,1%, and for 99% confidence level it is at 10,6%.

scholarly journals ESTIMASI NILAI CONDITIONAL VALUE AT RISK (CVaR) PORTOFOLIO MENGGUNAKAN METODE EVT-GJR-VINE COPULA

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
NI WAYAN UCHI YUSHI ARI SUDINA ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Copula Method ◽  
Vine Copula

Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is widely used in risk measure that takes into account losses exceeding the value at risk level. The aim of this research is to compare the performance of the EVT-GJR-vine copula method and EVT-GARCH-vine copula method in estimating CVaR of the portfolio using backtesting. Based on the backtesting results, it was found that the EVT-GJR-vine copula method have better performance when compared to the EVT-GARCH-vine copula method in estimating the CVaR value of the portfolio. This can be seen from the statistical values ??, and  of EVT-GJR-vine copula method which is generally smaller than the statistical values , and of the EVT-GARCH-vine copula method.

scholarly journals Convex approximations for two-stage mixed-integer mean-risk recourse models with conditional value-at-risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 181 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Ruben van Beesten ◽  
Ward Romeijnders
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Error Bounds ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Integer Recourse ◽  
Mean Risk

Abstract In traditional two-stage mixed-integer recourse models, the expected value of the total costs is minimized. In order to address risk-averse attitudes of decision makers, we consider a weighted mean-risk objective instead. Conditional value-at-risk is used as our risk measure. Integrality conditions on decision variables make the model non-convex and hence, hard to solve. To tackle this problem, we derive convex approximation models and corresponding error bounds, that depend on the total variations of the density functions of the random right-hand side variables in the model. We show that the error bounds converge to zero if these total variations go to zero. In addition, for the special cases of totally unimodular and simple integer recourse models we derive sharper error bounds.

scholarly journals D6.3 Report on stochastic optimisation for simple problems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Ayoul-Guilmard ◽  
S. Ganesh ◽  
F. Nobile ◽  
R. Rossi ◽  
C. Soriano
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
High Performance Computing ◽  
Cost Efficiency ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Theoretical Methods ◽  
Stochastic Optimisation ◽  
Performance Computing

This report addresses the general matter of optimisation under uncertainties, following a previous report on stochastic sensitivities (deliverable 6.2). It describes several theoretical methods, as well their application into implementable algorithms. The specific case of the conditional value at risk chosen as risk measure, with its challenges, is prominently discussed. In particular, the issue of smoothness – or lack thereof – is addressed through several possible approaches. The whole report is written in the context of high-performance computing, with concern for parallelisation and cost-efficiency.

On multivariate extensions of the conditional Value-at-Risk measure

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Di Bernardino ◽  
J.M. Fernández-Ponce ◽  
F. Palacios-Rodríguez ◽  
M.R. Rodríguez-Griñolo
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk

scholarly journals Estimation of the Portfolio Risk from Conditional Value at Risk Using Monte Carlo Simulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 370-380
Author(s):  
Ervin Indarwati ◽  
Rosita Kusumawati
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Portfolio Risk ◽  
Portfolio Returns

Portfolio risk shows the large deviations in portfolio returns from expected portfolio returns. Value at Risk (VaR) is one method for determining the maximum risk of loss of a portfolio or an asset based on a certain probability and time. There are three methods to estimate VaR, namely variance-covariance, historical, and Monte Carlo simulations. One disadvantage of VaR is that it is incoherent because it does not have sub-additive properties. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a coherent or related risk measure and has a sub-additive nature which indicates that the loss on the portfolio is smaller or equal to the amount of loss of each asset. CVaR can provide loss information above the maximum loss. Estimating portfolio risk from the CVaR value using Monte Carlo simulation and its application to PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI.JK) and PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN.JK) will be discussed in this study.  The  daily  closing  price  of  each  BBNI  and BBTN share from 6 January 2019 to 30 December 2019 is used to measure the CVaR of the two banks' stock portfolios with this Monte Carlo simulation. The steps taken are determining the return value of assets, testing the normality of return of assets, looking for risk measures of returning assets that form a normally distributed portfolio, simulate the return of assets with monte carlo, calculate portfolio weights, looking for returns portfolio, calculate the quartile of portfolio return as a VaR value, and calculate the average loss above the VaR value as a CVaR value. The results of portfolio risk estimation of the value of CVaR using Monte Carlo simulation on PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk at a confidence level of 90%, 95%, and 99% is 5.82%, 6.39%, and 7.1% with a standard error of 0.58%, 0.59%, and 0.59%. If the initial funds that will be invested in this portfolio are illustrated at Rp 100,000,000, it can be interpreted that the maximum possible risk that investors will receive in the future will not exceed Rp 5,820,000, Rp 6,390,000 and Rp 7,100,000 at the significant level 90%, 95%, and 99%

scholarly journals Market-Risk Optimization among the Developed and Emerging Markets with CVaR Measure and Copula Simulation

Risks ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Trabelsi ◽  
Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Pareto Tails

In this paper, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) copula approach is utilized to solve the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) portfolio problem. Particularly, this approach used (i) copula to model the complete linear and non-linear correlation dependence structure, (ii) Pareto tails to capture the estimates of the parametric Pareto lower tail, the non-parametric kernel-smoothed interior and the parametric Pareto upper tail and (iii) Value-at-Risk (VaR) to quantify risk measure. The simulated sample covers the G7, BRICS (association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and 14 popular emerging stock-market returns for the period between 1997 and 2018. Our results suggest that the efficient frontier with the minimizing CVaR measure and simulated copula returns combined outperforms the risk/return of domestic portfolios, such as the US stock market. This result improves international diversification at the global level. We also show that the Gaussian and t-copula simulated returns give very similar but not identical results. Furthermore, the copula simulation provides more accurate market-risk estimates than historical simulation. Finally, the results support the notion that G7 countries can provide an important opportunity for diversification. These results are important to investors and policymakers.

scholarly journals Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denisa Banulescu-Radu ◽  
Christophe Hurlin ◽  
Jérémy Leymarie ◽  
Olivier Scaillet
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Expected Shortfall ◽  
Conditional Value At Risk ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Marginal Expected Shortfall

This paper proposes an original approach for backtesting systemic risk measures. This backtesting approach makes it possible to assess the systemic risk measure forecasts used to identify the financial institutions that contribute the most to the overall risk in the financial system. Our procedure is based on simple tests similar to those generally used to backtest the standard market risk measures such as value-at-risk or expected shortfall. We introduce a concept of violation associated with the marginal expected shortfall (MES), and we define unconditional coverage and independence tests for these violations. We can generalize these tests to any MES-based systemic risk measures such as the systemic expected shortfall (SES), the systemic risk measure (SRISK), or the delta conditional value-at-risk ([Formula: see text]CoVaR). We study their asymptotic properties in the presence of estimation risk and investigate their finite sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical application to a panel of U.S. financial institutions is conducted to assess the validity of MES, SRISK, and [Formula: see text]CoVaR forecasts issued from a bivariate GARCH model with a dynamic conditional correlation structure. Our results show that this model provides valid forecasts for MES and SRISK when considering a medium-term horizon. Finally, we propose an early warning system indicator for future systemic crises deduced from these backtests. Our indicator quantifies how much is the measurement error issued by a systemic risk forecast at a given point in time which can serve for the early detection of global market reversals. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance.

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