scholarly journals The Simplified Acute Physiology Score III Is Superior to the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II in Predicting Surgical and ICU Mortality in the “Oldest Old”

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aftab Haq ◽  
Sachin Patil ◽  
Alexis Lanteri Parcells ◽  
Ronald S. Chamberlain
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Oldest Old ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
The Usa

Elderly patients in the USA account for 26–50% of all intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. The applicability of validated ICU scoring systems to predict outcomes in the “Oldest Old” is poorly documented. We evaluated the utility of three commonly used ICU scoring systems (SAPS II, SAPS III, and APACHE II) to predict clinical outcomes in patients > 90 years. 1,189 surgical procedures performed upon 951 patients > 90 years (between 2000 and 2010) were analyzed. SAPS II, SAPS III, and Acute APACHE II were calculated for all patients admitted to the SICU. Differences between survivors and nonsurvivors were analyzed using the Student’st-test and binary logistic regression analysis. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed for each scoring system studied. The area under the ROC curve (aROC) for the SAPS III was 0.81 at a cut-off value of 57, whereas the aROC for SAPS II was 0.75 at a cut-off score of 44 and the aROC for APACHE II was 0.74 at a cut-off score of 13. The SAPS III ROC curve for prediction of hospital mortality exhibited the greatest sensitivity (84%) and specificity (66%) with a score of 57 for the “Oldest Old” population.

scholarly journals The Pros and Cons of the Prediction Game: The Never-ending Debate of Mortality in the Intensive Care Unit

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr A. Fuchs ◽  
Iwona J. Czech ◽  
Łukasz J. Krzych
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Icu Mortality ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Icu Discharge ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Long Term Prognosis

Background: The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scales are scoring systems used in intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. We aimed to investigate their usefulness in predicting short- and long-term prognosis in the local ICU. Methods: This single-center observational study covered 905 patients admitted from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017 to a tertiary mixed ICU. SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were calculated based on the worst values from the first 24 h post-admission. Patients were divided into surgical (SP) and nonsurgical (NSP) subjects. Unadjusted ICU and post-ICU discharge mortality rates were considered the outcomes. Results: Baseline SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were 41.1 ± 20.34, 14.07 ± 8.73, and 6.33 ± 4.12 points, respectively. All scores were significantly lower among SP compared to NSP (p < 0.05). ICU mortality reached 35.4% and was significantly lower for SP (25.3%) than NSP (57.9%) (p < 0.001). The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.826, 0.836, and 0.788 for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scales, respectively, for predicting ICU prognosis, and 0.708, 0.709, and 0.661 for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA, respectively, for post-ICU prognosis. Conclusions: Although APACHE II and SAPS II are good predictors of ICU mortality, they failed to predict survival after discharge. Surgical patients had a better prognosis than medical ICU patients.

Effectiveness of the sequential organ failure assessment, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, and simplified acute physiology score II prognostic scoring systems in paraquat-poisoned patients in the intensive care unit

2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 431-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ho Lee ◽  
Seong Youn Hwang ◽  
Hye Ran Kim ◽  
Yang Won Kim ◽  
Mun Ju Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Sofa Score ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Apache Ii Score ◽  
Health Evaluation ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Failure Assessment ◽  
Score Apache

Objective: This study was conducted to assess the ability of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scoring systems, as well as the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II method to predict group mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients who were poisoned with paraquat. This will assist physicians with risk stratification. Material and methods: The medical records of 244 paraquat-poisoned patients admitted to the ICU from January 2010 to April 2015 were examined retrospectively. The SOFA, APACHE II, and SAPS II scores were calculated based on initial laboratory data in the emergency department and during the first 24 h of ICU admission. The probability of death was calculated for each patient based on the SOFA score, APACHE II score, and SAPS II. The ability of the SOFA score, APACHE II score, and SAPS II method to predict group mortality was assessed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration analyses. Results: A total of 219 patients (mean age, 63 years) were enrolled. Sensitivities, specificities, and accuracies were 58.5%, 86.1%, and 64.0% for the SOFA, respectively; 75.1%, 86.1%, and 77.6% for the APACHE II scoring systems, respectively; and 76.1%, 79.1%, and 76.7% for the SAPS II, respectively. The areas under the curve in the ROC curve analysis for the SOFA score, APACHE II scoring system, and SAPS II were 0.716, 0.850, and 0.835, respectively. Conclusion: The SOFA, APACHE II, and SAPS II had different capabilities to discriminate and estimate early in-hospital mortality of paraquat-poisoned patients. Our results show that although the SOFA and SAPS II are easier and more quickly calculated than APACHE II, the APACHE II is superior for predicting mortality. We recommend use of the APACHE II for outcome predictions and risk stratification in paraquat-poisoned patients in the ICU.

scholarly journals Comparison of Mortality Risk Models in Patients with Postcardiac Arrest Cardiogenic Shock and Percutaneous Mechanical Circulatory Support

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Georgios Chatzis ◽  
Birgit Markus ◽  
Styliani Syntila ◽  
Christian Waechter ◽  
Ulrich Luesebrink ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Cardiogenic Shock ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Circulatory Support ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Prognostic Accuracy ◽  
Va Ecmo

Background. Although scoring systems are widely used to predict outcomes in postcardiac arrest cardiogenic shock (CS) after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI), data concerning the accuracy of these scores to predict mortality of patients treated with Impella in this setting are lacking. Thus, we aimed to evaluate as well as to compare the prognostic accuracy of acute physiology and chronic health II (APACHE II), simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA), the intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), CardShock, the prediction of cardiogenic shock outcome for AMI patients salvaged by VA-ECMO (ENCOURAGE), and the survival after venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (SAVE) score in patients with OHCA refractory CS due to an AMI treated with Impella 2.5 or CP. Methods. Retrospective study of 65 consecutive Impella 2.5 and 32 CP patients treated in our cardiac arrest center from September 2015 until June 2020. Results. Overall survival to discharge was 44.3%. The expected mortality according to scores was SOFA 70%, SAPS II 90%, IABP shock 55%, CardShock 80%, APACHE II 85%, ENCOURAGE 50%, and SAVE score 70% in the 2.5 group; SOFA 70%, SAPS II 85%, IABP shock 55%, CardShock 80%, APACHE II 85%, ENCOURAGE 75%, and SAVE score 70% in the CP group. The ENCOURAGE score was the most effective predictive model of mortality outcome presenting a moderate area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79, followed by the CardShock, APACHE II, IABP, and SAPS score. These derived an AUC between 0.71 and 0.78. The SOFA and the SAVE scores failed to predict the outcome in this particular setting of refractory CS after OHCA due to an AMI. Conclusion. The available intensive care and newly developed CS scores offered only a moderate prognostic accuracy for outcomes in OHCA patients with refractory CS due to an AMI treated with Impella. A new score is needed in order to guide the therapy in these patients.

scholarly journals Chronic heart failure in intensive care unit: can we accurately predict the risk?

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Maltes ◽  
S Maltes ◽  
B.M.L Rocha ◽  
G.J.L Cunha ◽  
P Lopes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Saps Ii

Abstract Background Severity of disease scoring systems, namely the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), are widely used to predict mortality in Intensive Care Units (ICU). Yet, neither score includes chronic HF in their model. We aimed to evaluate whether these scores perform well in risk prediction of death of patients previously diagnosed with heart failure (HF). Methodology This is a single-center retrospective cohort of patients admitted to an ICU in 2019. Those whose admission lasted &lt;24 hours were excluded from analysis. The SAPS II and APACHE II scores were calculated using data from the first 24 hours of ICU admission, imputing the worst variable obtained within this timeframe. HF was defined according to the ESC recommendations. In order to assess the performance of the scores, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves were used to predict the risk of death in ICU in HF compared to the non-HF population. Results A total of 267 patients were hospitalized in ICU for a period over 24 hours in 2019 (mean age 67±16 years; 58.8% males; 21.7% with chronic HF; 33.7% admitted for sepsis). Compared to patients without HF, those with chronic HF were older (74±13 vs. 65±16 years; p&lt;0.001) and had higher risk scores (mean SAPS II: 43.2±21.7 vs. 56.5±20.7; p&lt;0.001; mean APACHE II: 19.8±10.0 vs. 25.1±10.0; p&lt;0.001). Moreover, these patients were at higher risk of meaningful events during hospitalization (e.g. acute kidney injury: 38.0 vs. 66.1%; p&lt;0.001; shock at any time: 52.4 vs. 67.8%; p=0.036). Furthermore, patients with HF had a trend towards higher mortality rates in ICU (17.3 vs. 28.8%; p=0.051) and a significantly higher death in overall hospitalization (30.8 vs. 45.8%; p=0.032). ROC curves performed well in predicting the risk of ICU death regardless of HF (SAPS II – AUC 0.78 vs. 0.81; p=0.36; APACHE II – AUC 0.75 vs. 0.78; p=0.37). Conclusion Approximately 1 in every 4 patients admitted to the ICU had chronic HF. Traditional risk scoring systems (SAPS II and APACHE II) performed well regardless of HF. While these results are reassuring as far as risk stratification accuracy is concerned, HF patients remained at a higher risk for worse outcomes. Therefore, prognostic tools with a therapeutic clinical applicability are urgently needed to improve the outcome of this population. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Performance of the simplified acute physiology score III in acute organophosphate poisoning: A retrospective observational study

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 221-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
DH Lee ◽  
BK Lee
Keyword(s):  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Organophosphate Poisoning ◽  
Hospital Case ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratios

The performances of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II have previously been evaluated in acute organophosphate poisoning. We aimed to compare the performance of the SAPS III with those of the APACHE II and SAPS II, as well as to identify the best tool for predicting case fatality using the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) in acute organophosphate poisoning. A retrospective analysis of organophosphate poisoning was conducted. The APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS III were calculated within 24 h of admission. Discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The SMRs were calculated as 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In total, 100 cases of organophosphate poisoning were included. The in-hospital case fatality was 19%. The median scores of the APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS III were 20.0 (10.0–27.0), 41.0 (28.0–54.8), and 53.0 (36.3–68.8), respectively. The AUROCs were not significantly different among the APACHE II (0.815; 95% CI, 0.712–0.919), SAPS II (0.820; 95% CI, 0.719–0.912), and SAPS III (0.850; 95% CI, 0.763–0.936). Based on these scores and in-hospital case fatality, the SMRs for the APACHE II, SAPS II, and SAPS III were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.50–2.72), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.54 -2.78), and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.33–1.99), respectively. The SAPS III provided a good discrimination and satisfactory calibration in acute organophosphate poisoning. It was therefore a useful tool in predicting case fatality in acute organophosphate poisoning, similar to the APACHE II and SAPS II.

scholarly journals Predicting Burn Mortality Using a Simple Novel Prediction Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sneha Sharma ◽  
Raman Tandon
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Apache Ii Score ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis

Abstract Background Prediction of outcome for burn patients allows appropriate allocation of resources and prognostication. There is a paucity of simple to use burn-specific mortality prediction models which consider both endogenous and exogenous factors. Our objective was to create such a model. Methods A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive eligible consenting burns patients. Demographic data, total burn surface area (TBSA), results of complete blood count, kidney function test, and arterial blood gas analysis were collected. The quantitative variables were compared using the unpaired student t-test/nonparametric Mann Whitney U-test. Qualitative variables were compared using the ⊠2-test/Fischer exact test. Binary logistic regression analysis was done and a logit score was derived and simplified. The discrimination of these models was tested using the receiver operating characteristic curve; calibration was checked using the Hosmer—Lemeshow goodness of fit statistic, and the probability of death calculated. Validation was done using the bootstrapping technique in 5,000 samples. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. Results On univariate analysis TBSA (p <0.001) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score (p = 0.004) were found to be independent predictors of mortality. TBSA (odds ratio [OR] 1.094, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.037–1.155, p = 0.001) and APACHE II (OR 1.166, 95% CI 1.034–1.313, p = 0.012) retained significance on binary logistic regression analysis. The prediction model devised performed well (area under the receiver operating characteristic 0.778, 95% CI 0.681–0.875). Conclusion The prediction of mortality can be done accurately at the bedside using TBSA and APACHE II score.

scholarly journals Outcome of Patients With Necrotizing Vasculitis Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for Sepsis: Results of a Single-Centre Retrospective Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 088506662095376
Author(s):  
Marco Krasselt ◽  
Christoph Baerwald ◽  
Sirak Petros ◽  
Olga Seifert
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Tertiary Hospital ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Necrotizing Vasculitis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Sepsis Mortality ◽  
Saps Ii

Introduction/Background: Vasculitis patients have a high risk for infections that may require intensive care unit (ICU) treatment in case of resulting sepsis. Since data on sepsis mortality in this patient group is limited, the present study investigated the clinical characteristics and outcomes of vasculitis patients admitted to the ICU for sepsis. Methods: The medical records of all necrotizing vasculitis patients admitted to the ICU of a tertiary hospital for sepsis in a 13-year period have been reviewed. Mortality was calculated and multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors for sepsis mortality. Moreover, the predictive power of common ICU scores was further evaluated. Results: The study included 34 patients with necrotizing vasculitis (mean age 69 ± 9.9 years, 35.3% females). 47.1% (n = 16) were treated with immunosuppressives (mostly cyclophosphamide, n = 35.3%) and 76.5% (n = 26) received glucocorticoids. Rituximab was used in 4 patients (11.8%).The in-hospital mortality of septic vasculitis patients was 41.2%. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (p = 0.003) was independently associated with mortality in multivariate logistic regression. Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and SOFA scores were good predictors of sepsis mortality in the investigated vasculitis patients (APACHE II AUC 0.73, p = 0.02; SAPS II AUC 0.81, p < 0.01; SOFA AUC 0.898, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Sepsis mortality was high in vasculitis patients. SOFA was independently associated with mortality in a logistic regression model. SOFA and other well-established ICU scores were good mortality predictors.

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