scholarly journals Chronic heart failure in intensive care unit: can we accurately predict the risk?

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Maltes ◽  
S Maltes ◽  
B.M.L Rocha ◽  
G.J.L Cunha ◽  
P Lopes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Saps Ii

Abstract Background Severity of disease scoring systems, namely the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), are widely used to predict mortality in Intensive Care Units (ICU). Yet, neither score includes chronic HF in their model. We aimed to evaluate whether these scores perform well in risk prediction of death of patients previously diagnosed with heart failure (HF). Methodology This is a single-center retrospective cohort of patients admitted to an ICU in 2019. Those whose admission lasted <24 hours were excluded from analysis. The SAPS II and APACHE II scores were calculated using data from the first 24 hours of ICU admission, imputing the worst variable obtained within this timeframe. HF was defined according to the ESC recommendations. In order to assess the performance of the scores, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves were used to predict the risk of death in ICU in HF compared to the non-HF population. Results A total of 267 patients were hospitalized in ICU for a period over 24 hours in 2019 (mean age 67±16 years; 58.8% males; 21.7% with chronic HF; 33.7% admitted for sepsis). Compared to patients without HF, those with chronic HF were older (74±13 vs. 65±16 years; p<0.001) and had higher risk scores (mean SAPS II: 43.2±21.7 vs. 56.5±20.7; p<0.001; mean APACHE II: 19.8±10.0 vs. 25.1±10.0; p<0.001). Moreover, these patients were at higher risk of meaningful events during hospitalization (e.g. acute kidney injury: 38.0 vs. 66.1%; p<0.001; shock at any time: 52.4 vs. 67.8%; p=0.036). Furthermore, patients with HF had a trend towards higher mortality rates in ICU (17.3 vs. 28.8%; p=0.051) and a significantly higher death in overall hospitalization (30.8 vs. 45.8%; p=0.032). ROC curves performed well in predicting the risk of ICU death regardless of HF (SAPS II – AUC 0.78 vs. 0.81; p=0.36; APACHE II – AUC 0.75 vs. 0.78; p=0.37). Conclusion Approximately 1 in every 4 patients admitted to the ICU had chronic HF. Traditional risk scoring systems (SAPS II and APACHE II) performed well regardless of HF. While these results are reassuring as far as risk stratification accuracy is concerned, HF patients remained at a higher risk for worse outcomes. Therefore, prognostic tools with a therapeutic clinical applicability are urgently needed to improve the outcome of this population. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

scholarly journals The Pros and Cons of the Prediction Game: The Never-ending Debate of Mortality in the Intensive Care Unit

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 3394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr A. Fuchs ◽  
Iwona J. Czech ◽  
Łukasz J. Krzych
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Icu Mortality ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Icu Discharge ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Long Term Prognosis

Background: The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scales are scoring systems used in intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. We aimed to investigate their usefulness in predicting short- and long-term prognosis in the local ICU. Methods: This single-center observational study covered 905 patients admitted from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017 to a tertiary mixed ICU. SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were calculated based on the worst values from the first 24 h post-admission. Patients were divided into surgical (SP) and nonsurgical (NSP) subjects. Unadjusted ICU and post-ICU discharge mortality rates were considered the outcomes. Results: Baseline SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were 41.1 ± 20.34, 14.07 ± 8.73, and 6.33 ± 4.12 points, respectively. All scores were significantly lower among SP compared to NSP (p < 0.05). ICU mortality reached 35.4% and was significantly lower for SP (25.3%) than NSP (57.9%) (p < 0.001). The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.826, 0.836, and 0.788 for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scales, respectively, for predicting ICU prognosis, and 0.708, 0.709, and 0.661 for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA, respectively, for post-ICU prognosis. Conclusions: Although APACHE II and SAPS II are good predictors of ICU mortality, they failed to predict survival after discharge. Surgical patients had a better prognosis than medical ICU patients.

scholarly journals Outcome of Patients With Necrotizing Vasculitis Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for Sepsis: Results of a Single-Centre Retrospective Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 088506662095376
Author(s):  
Marco Krasselt ◽  
Christoph Baerwald ◽  
Sirak Petros ◽  
Olga Seifert
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Tertiary Hospital ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Necrotizing Vasculitis ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Sepsis Mortality ◽  
Saps Ii

Introduction/Background: Vasculitis patients have a high risk for infections that may require intensive care unit (ICU) treatment in case of resulting sepsis. Since data on sepsis mortality in this patient group is limited, the present study investigated the clinical characteristics and outcomes of vasculitis patients admitted to the ICU for sepsis. Methods: The medical records of all necrotizing vasculitis patients admitted to the ICU of a tertiary hospital for sepsis in a 13-year period have been reviewed. Mortality was calculated and multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors for sepsis mortality. Moreover, the predictive power of common ICU scores was further evaluated. Results: The study included 34 patients with necrotizing vasculitis (mean age 69 ± 9.9 years, 35.3% females). 47.1% (n = 16) were treated with immunosuppressives (mostly cyclophosphamide, n = 35.3%) and 76.5% (n = 26) received glucocorticoids. Rituximab was used in 4 patients (11.8%).The in-hospital mortality of septic vasculitis patients was 41.2%. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (p = 0.003) was independently associated with mortality in multivariate logistic regression. Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and SOFA scores were good predictors of sepsis mortality in the investigated vasculitis patients (APACHE II AUC 0.73, p = 0.02; SAPS II AUC 0.81, p < 0.01; SOFA AUC 0.898, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Sepsis mortality was high in vasculitis patients. SOFA was independently associated with mortality in a logistic regression model. SOFA and other well-established ICU scores were good mortality predictors.

scholarly journals Performance of Prognostic Scoring Systems in Trauma Patients in the Intensive Care Unit of a Trauma Center

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (19) ◽  
pp. 7226
Author(s):  
Shao-Chun Wu ◽  
Sheng-En Chou ◽  
Hang-Tsung Liu ◽  
Ting-Min Hsieh ◽  
Wei-Ti Su ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Organ Dysfunction ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Prognostic Scoring Systems

Background: Prediction of mortality outcomes in trauma patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is important for patient care and quality improvement. We aimed to measure the performance of 11 prognostic scoring systems for predicting mortality outcomes in trauma patients in the ICU. Methods: Prospectively registered data in the Trauma Registry System from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2018 were used to extract scores from prognostic scoring systems for 1554 trauma patients in the ICU. The following systems were used: the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS); the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II); the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II); mortality prediction models (MPM II) at admission, 24, 48, and 72 h; the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS); the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA); the Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS); and the Three Days Recalibrated ICU Outcome Score (TRIOS). Predictive performance was determined according to the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Results: MPM II at 24 h had the highest AUC (0.9213), followed by MPM II at 48 h (AUC: 0.9105). MPM II at 24, 48, and 72 h (0.8956) had a significantly higher AUC than the TRISS (AUC: 0.8814), APACHE II (AUC: 0.8923), SAPS II (AUC: 0.9044), MPM II at admission (AUC: 0.9063), MODS (AUC: 0.8179), SOFA (AUC: 0.7073), LODS (AUC: 0.9013), and TRIOS (AUC: 0.8701). There was no significant difference in the predictive performance of MPM II at 24 and 48 h (p = 0.37) or at 72 h (p = 0.10). Conclusions: We compared 11 prognostic scoring systems and demonstrated that MPM II at 24 h had the best predictive performance for 1554 trauma patients in the ICU.

Comparison of Sensitivity, Specificity and Accuracy of APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA Scoring Systems as Predictors

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3364-3366
Author(s):  
Aamir Furqan ◽  
Mehwish Naseer ◽  
Rafia Tabassum
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Icu Patients ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Icu Stay ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Aim: To compare the APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA scoring systems as predictors of mortality in ICU patients in terms of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Methodology: A prospective observational study. Intensive care unit from May 13, 2018 to September 15, 2021. For 1368 patients included in study, results for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA were calculated with the worst values recorded. At the end of ICU stay, patient outcome was labelled as survivors and non-survivors. The cut off value for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA was taken as 50% of the highest possible score, with <50% expected to survive and with ≥50% expected to die during their ICU stay. Cross tables were made against real outcome of the patients, and sensitivity, specificity and accuracy for APACHE II, SAPS II and SOFA were calculated. Results: Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 77.53%, 94.28% and 85.45% for APACHE II scoring system; 47.29%, 87.32%, and 66.23% for SAPS II scoring system; and 73.37%, 60.28%, and 67.18% for SOFA scoring system, respectively. Conclusion: Apache Ii scoring system has highest sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in mortality prediction in ICU patients as compared to SAPS II and SOFA scoring systems, with SAPS II being least sensitive and accurate. Keywords: Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Intensive care units (ICU), Mortality.

scholarly journals Combination of APACHE Scoring Systems with Adductor Pollicis Muscle Thickness for the Prediction of Mortality in Patients Who Spend More Than One Day in the Intensive Care Unit

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Elahe Nematifard ◽  
Seyed Hossein Ardehali ◽  
Shaahin Shahbazi ◽  
Hassan Eini-Zinab ◽  
Zahra Vahdat Shariatpanahi
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Adductor Pollicis ◽  
Interquartile Range ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Adductor Pollicis Muscle ◽  
Prediction Of Mortality ◽  
Apache Iii

Background. The objective of the present study was to compare the ability of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) scoring systems with the combination of an anthropometric variable score “adductor pollicis muscle (APM) thickness” to the APACHE systems in predicting mortality in the intensive care unit. Methods. A prospective observational study was conducted with the APM thickness in the dominant hand, and APACHE II and III scores were measured for each patient upon admission. Given scores for the APM thickness were added to APACHE score systems to make two composite scores of APACHE II-APM and APACHE III-APM. The accuracy of the two composite models and APACHE II and III systems in predicting mortality of patients was compared using the area under the ROC curve. Results. Three hundred and four patients with the mean age of 54.75 ± 18.28 years were studied, of which 96 (31.57%) patients died. Median (interquartile range) of APACHE II and III scores was 15 (12–20) and 47 (33–66), respectively. Median (interquartile range) of APM thickness was 15 (12–17) mm, respectively. The area under the ROC curves for the prediction of mortality was 0.771 (95% CI: 0.715–0.827), 0.802 (95% CI: 0.751–0.854), 0.851 (95% CI: 0.807–0.896), and 0.865 (95% CI: 0.822–0.908) for APACHE II, APACHE III, APACHE II-APM, and APACHE III-APM, respectively. Conclusion. Although improvements in the area under ROC curves were not statistically significant when the APM thickness added to the APACHE systems, but the numerical value added to AUCs are considerable.

scholarly journals The Simplified Acute Physiology Score III Is Superior to the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II in Predicting Surgical and ICU Mortality in the “Oldest Old”

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aftab Haq ◽  
Sachin Patil ◽  
Alexis Lanteri Parcells ◽  
Ronald S. Chamberlain
Keyword(s):  
Roc Curve ◽  
Oldest Old ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Simplified Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Acute Physiology Score ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
The Usa

Elderly patients in the USA account for 26–50% of all intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. The applicability of validated ICU scoring systems to predict outcomes in the “Oldest Old” is poorly documented. We evaluated the utility of three commonly used ICU scoring systems (SAPS II, SAPS III, and APACHE II) to predict clinical outcomes in patients > 90 years. 1,189 surgical procedures performed upon 951 patients > 90 years (between 2000 and 2010) were analyzed. SAPS II, SAPS III, and Acute APACHE II were calculated for all patients admitted to the SICU. Differences between survivors and nonsurvivors were analyzed using the Student’st-test and binary logistic regression analysis. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed for each scoring system studied. The area under the ROC curve (aROC) for the SAPS III was 0.81 at a cut-off value of 57, whereas the aROC for SAPS II was 0.75 at a cut-off score of 44 and the aROC for APACHE II was 0.74 at a cut-off score of 13. The SAPS III ROC curve for prediction of hospital mortality exhibited the greatest sensitivity (84%) and specificity (66%) with a score of 57 for the “Oldest Old” population.

Evaluation of illness severity scoring systems and risk prediction in vascular intensive care admissions

Vascular ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Dover ◽  
Wael Tawfick ◽  
Niamh Hynes ◽  
Sherif Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score ◽  
Vascular Intervention ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Operative Severity Score ◽  
Apache Iv

IntroductionThis study examines the predictive value of intensive care unit (ICU) scoring systems in a vascular ICU population.MethodsFrom April 2005 to September 2011, we examined 363 consecutive ICU admissions. Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), APACHE IV, Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), organ dysfunctions and/or infection (ODIN), mortality prediction model (MPM) and physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) were calculated. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) was calculated for patients with aneurysm-related admissions.ResultsOverall mortality for complex vascular intervention was 11.6%. At admission, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) was 0.884 for SAPS II, 0.894 for APACHE II, 0.895 for APACHE IV, 0.902 for MODS, 0.891 for ODIN and 0.903 for MPM. At 24 h, model discrimination was best for POSSUM (AUC = 0.906) and MPM (AUC = 0.912).ConclusionThe good discrimination of these scoring systems indicates their value as an adjunct to clinical assessment but should not be used on an individual basis as a clinical decision-making tool.

scholarly journals The association between four scoring systems and 30-day mortality among intensive care patients with sepsis: a cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyang Hu ◽  
Huajie Lv ◽  
Youfan Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Intensive Care Patients ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Saps Ii Score ◽  
Net Benefits

AbstractSeveral commonly used scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS II, LODS, and SIRS) are currently lacking large sample data to confirm the predictive value of 30-day mortality from sepsis, and their clinical net benefits of predicting mortality are still inconclusive. The baseline data, LODS score, SAPS II score, SIRS score, SOFA score, and 30-day prognosis of patients who met the diagnostic criteria of sepsis were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) intensive care unit (ICU) database. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and comparisons between the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were conducted. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to determine the net benefits between the four scoring systems and 30-day mortality of sepsis. For all cases in the cohort study, the AUC of LODS, SAPS II, SIRS, SOFA were 0.733, 0.787, 0.597, and 0.688, respectively. The differences between the scoring systems were statistically significant (all P-values < 0.0001), and stratified analyses (the elderly and non-elderly) also showed the superiority of SAPS II among the four systems. According to the DCA, the net benefit ranges in descending order were SAPS II, LODS, SOFA, and SIRS. For stratified analyses of the elderly or non-elderly groups, the results also showed that SAPS II had the most net benefit. Among the four commonly used scoring systems, the SAPS II score has the highest predictive value for 30-day mortality from sepsis, which is better than LODS, SIRS, and SOFA. The results of the DCA curves show that using the SAPS II score to predict the 30-day mortality of intensive care patients with sepsis to guide clinical applications may obtain the highest net benefit.

scholarly journals Efficacy of Various Scoring Systems for Predicting the 28-Day Survival Rate among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Requiring Emergency Intensive Care

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihong Feng ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Ping Liu ◽  
Sipeng Chen ◽  
Han Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Survival Group ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Saps Ii ◽  
Severity Of Disease ◽  
Death Group

We aimed to investigate the efficacy of four severity-of-disease scoring systems in predicting the 28-day survival rate among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) requiring emergency care. Clinical data of patients with AECOPD who required emergency care were recorded over 2 years. APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and MEDS scores were calculated from severity-of-disease indicators recorded at admission and compared between patients who died within 28 days of admission (death group; 46 patients) and those who did not (survival group; 336 patients). Compared to the survival group, the death group had a significantly higher GCS score, frequency of comorbidities including hypertension and heart failure, and age (P<0.05 for all). With all four systems, scores of age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and the GCS were significantly higher in the death group than the survival group. The prediction efficacy of the APACHE II and SAPS II scores was 88.4%. The survival rates did not differ significantly between APACHE II and SAPS II (P=1.519). Our results may guide triage for early identification of critically ill patients with AECOPD in the emergency department.

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