scholarly journals Atmospheric Circulation Regimes in a Nonlinear Quasi-Geostrophic Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henriette Labsch ◽  
Dörthe Handorf ◽  
Klaus Dethloff ◽  
Michael V. Kurgansky
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Satisfactory Model ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Interannual And Decadal Variability ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

Atmospheric low-frequency variability and circulation regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasi-geostrophic (QG) three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The model generates strong interannual and decadal variability, with the domination of the annular mode of variability. It successfully reproduces a satisfactory model climatology and the most important atmospheric circulation regimes. The positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation is a robust feature of the quasi-geostrophic T63 model. The model results based on QG dynamics underlie atmospheric regime behavior in the extratropical NH and suggest that nonlinear internal processes deliver significant contribution to the atmospheric climate variability on interannual and decadal timescales.

scholarly journals Toward Understanding the Dynamical Origin of Atmospheric Regime Behavior in a Baroclinic Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 887-904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Sempf ◽  
Klaus Dethloff ◽  
Dörthe Handorf ◽  
Michael V. Kurgansky
Keyword(s):  
High Probability ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Baroclinic Model ◽  
Interannual And Decadal Variability ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Very High

Abstract Dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasigeostrophic three-level T21 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. The model, driven by realistic orography and using a thermal forcing determined by a newly developed tuning procedure, is shown to possess a reasonable climatology and to simulate the Arctic Oscillation quite realistically. It exhibits pronounced internally generated interannual and decadal variability and, in particular, circulation regimes that agree fairly well with observed ones. Two known hypotheses about the origin of regime behavior, as it occurs in the model herein are addressed: (i) multiple equilibria and (ii) chaotic itinerancy between attractor ruins. The first hypothesis is falsified at very high probability, while the second is likely to be true.

scholarly journals Empirical Mode Reduction in a Model of Extratropical Low-Frequency Variability

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 1859-1877 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kondrashov ◽  
S. Kravtsov ◽  
M. Ghil
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Study ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Reduced Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract This paper constructs and analyzes a reduced nonlinear stochastic model of extratropical low-frequency variability. To do so, it applies multilevel quadratic regression to the output of a long simulation of a global baroclinic, quasigeostrophic, three-level (QG3) model with topography; the model's phase space has a dimension of O(104). The reduced model has 45 variables and captures well the non-Gaussian features of the QG3 model's probability density function (PDF). In particular, the reduced model's PDF shares with the QG3 model its four anomalously persistent flow patterns, which correspond to opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as the Markov chain of transitions between these regimes. In addition, multichannel singular spectrum analysis identifies intraseasonal oscillations with a period of 35–37 days and of 20 days in the data generated by both the QG3 model and its low-dimensional analog. An analytical and numerical study of the reduced model starts with the fixed points and oscillatory eigenmodes of the model's deterministic part and uses systematically an increasing noise parameter to connect these with the behavior of the full, stochastically forced model version. The results of this study point to the origin of the QG3 model's multiple regimes and intraseasonal oscillations and identify the connections between the two types of behavior.

scholarly journals Dynamical Link between the Barents–Kara Sea Ice and the Arctic Oscillation

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (14) ◽  
pp. 5103-5122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yi Yang ◽  
Xiaojun Yuan ◽  
Mingfang Ting
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

Abstract The recent accelerated Arctic sea ice decline has been proposed as a possible forcing factor for midlatitude circulation changes, which can be projected onto the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and/or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode. However, the timing and physical mechanisms linking AO responses to the Arctic sea ice forcing are not entirely understood. In this study, the authors suggest a connection between November sea ice extent in the Barents and Kara Seas and the following winter’s atmospheric circulation in terms of the fast sea ice retreat and the subsequent modification of local air–sea heat fluxes. In particular, the dynamical processes that link November sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas with the development of AO anomalies in February is explored. In response to the lower-tropospheric warming associated with the initial thermal effect of the sea ice loss, the large-scale atmospheric circulation goes through a series of dynamical adjustment processes: The decelerated zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies propagate gradually from the subarctic to midlatitudes in about one month. The equivalent barotropic AO dipole pattern develops in January because of wave–mean flow interaction and firmly establishes itself in February following the weakening and warming of the stratospheric polar vortex. This connection between sea ice loss and the AO mode is robust on time scales ranging from interannual to decadal. Therefore, the recent winter AO weakening and the corresponding midlatitude climate change may be partly associated with the early winter sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas.

Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

2011 ◽  
Vol 39 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 495-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giles H. F. Young ◽  
Danny McCarroll ◽  
Neil J. Loader ◽  
Mary H. Gagen ◽  
Andreas J. Kirchhefer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Fennoscandia ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

scholarly journals Temporal Variability in the Expression of the Arctic Oscillation in the North Pacific

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 3110-3126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongxu Zhao ◽  
G. W. K. Moore
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Although the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been identified as important modes of climate variability during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter, whether the AO or the NAO is more fundamental to the description of this variability, especially in the North Pacific, is still an open question. An important contributor to this uncertainty is the lack of knowledge of the low-frequency linkages between the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. This paper explores the linkage between the two oceanic basins on interdecadal time scales using the sea level pressure (SLP) field during the twentieth century. In particular, it is shown that the winter mean SLP in the North Pacific was positively correlated with the sign of the NAO during the periods of 1925–50 and 1980–98, which resulted in the classical AO pattern being the dominant mode in the NH. In contrast, during the period of 1951–79, the winter mean SLP in the two basins was decoupled, resulting in a dominant mode that more closely resembled the NAO. Using paleoclimate reconstructions, it is also shown that this interdecadal variability in the North Pacific climate began around 1850, which is nominally considered to be the end of the Little Ice Age.

scholarly journals Self-Organizing Maps of Atmospheric Circulation and Interannual Variability of Hydrometeorological Fields in the Arctic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. E. Lemeshko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Self Organizing

The article suggests the use of a nonlinear method of data analysis based on a neural network – an algorithm of Kohonen self-organizing maps for the task of typing the atmospheric surface circulation in the Arctic. Based on the construction of self-organizing surface pressure maps, the seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric circulation in the Arctic for the period 1979–2018 is studied. Several modes were distinguished: cyclonic, two anticyclonic, and three mixed types. Indices of seasonal and annual repeatability of self-organizing atmospheric pressure maps are introduced, which allow us to study the temporal variability of atmospheric circulation modes and a composite method is proposed for calculating connected maps of other hydrometeorological parameters. The regimes of variability of the area of sea ice distribution and sea surface temperature depending on the type of atmospheric circulation are highlighted. Depending on the type of wind regime, there is a change in the area of sea ice distribution due to the variability of the flows of warm Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean. The characteristic types of sea surface temperature variability in the Barents Sea are identified, which are modulated by cyclonic / anticyclonic regimes of atmospheric circulation in the region and are an indicator of heat advection by the Atlantic waters. The interrelation is established of the repeatability index of self-organizing atmospheric pressure maps characterizing the types of atmospheric circulation with the variability of the Arctic Oscillation Index. The revealed regularities of the change in the types of cyclonic-anticyclonic atmospheric circulation are manifested in the interannual variability of the introduced repeatability index of selforganizing atmospheric pressure maps, which is a development of the Arctic Oscillation Index, improves understanding of the atmospheric climate circulation regimes in the Arctic.

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