scholarly journals Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Lingyun Liu ◽  
Jianli Zhou ◽  
Haoxin Dong ◽  
Yao Tao ◽  
Yunna Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Low-Speed Wind Power Projects Based on an Aggregated Cloud Method: A Case in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunna Wu ◽  
Shaoyu Ji ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Zixin Song
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Speed ◽  
Order Preference ◽  
Wind Curtailment ◽  
Cloud Theory ◽  
Power Project

Due to the aggravating wind curtailment phenomenon, low-speed wind power project (LSWPP) with the superiority of its generation being absorbed locally is rapidly developing in China. As the risk and opportunity coexist, a comprehensive risk assessment should be implemented to evaluate the risk level of a LSWPP. This paper firstly identified 38 risk factors based on a questionnaire survey and then sorted out 17 critical risk factors and divided them into 4 criteria to form the evaluation index system. In order to overcome the deficiencies of not considering randomness of linguistic variables and neglecting the interrelationship between factors, we proposed an aggregated method which combined ANP, the cloud theory, and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for LSWPPs risk assessment. After a case in China was studied and the sensitivity was tested, the effectiveness and application of this framework are demonstrated. Through the calculation of membership of each project, it indicated that the overall risk level of LSWPPs is relatively high. Finally, some recommendations of each critical risk factor were given for government, investors, and decision-makers to help them make more appropriate decisions and distribute the limited resources more rationally.

scholarly journals Risk Identification and Assessment during the Excavation of the Deep Foundation Pit

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Guowang Meng ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
Hao Liu ◽  
Bo Wu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Fuzzy Decision Making ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Deep Foundation ◽  
Foundation Pit ◽  
Entropy Weight Method ◽  
Weight Method

This study presents a new model for identifying and evaluating high-risk factors in foundation pit excavation. The model combines the fuzzy decision-making trial and the evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL), the entropy weight method, and the multiattributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method. Firstly, the risk factors such as geology, surrounding environment, monitoring, construction, and management are studied in detail. Secondly, the subjective weight is calculated by the fuzzy DEMATEL method, and the objective weight is calculated by the entropy weight method. Then, the MABAC method is introduced to identify the key risk factors of the foundation pit and the risk level of foundation pit construction. Finally, Jinan Rail Transit R2 Line Kaiyuan Road Station is used as a case study for analysis based on the risk assessment model. The results show that the model can identify key risk factors in different construction stages of foundation pits, which can provide guidance for risk management decision-making.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Tunnel Portals in the Construction Stage Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 69-87
Author(s):  
Xianghui Deng ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Tian Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Tunnel Portal

AbstractThis study presents a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) by integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy cognition to evaluate the construction risks of tunnel portals. Wuguanyi Tunnel is taken as the research objective to validate the performance of the proposed method. The result shows that the proposed decision making method can effectively identify risk factors and determine the risk level during the construction of tunnel portals. Finally, the corresponding control measures during the construction of the Wuguanyi Tunnel portal are proposed according to the risk assessment results.

scholarly journals Pb Content, Risk Level and Primary-Source Apportionment in Wheat and Rice Grains in the Lihe River Watershed, Taihu Region, Eastern China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6256
Author(s):  
Lian Chen ◽  
Shenglu Zhou ◽  
Qiong Yang ◽  
Qingrong Li ◽  
Dongxu Xing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Source Apportionment ◽  
Health Risk Assessment ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Rice Grains

This study detailed a complete research from Lead (Pb) content level to ecological and health risk to direct- and primary-sources apportionment arising from wheat and rice grains, in the Lihe River Watershed of the Taihu region, East China. Ecological and health risk assessment were based on the pollution index and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) health risk assessment model. A three-stage quantitative analysis program based on Pb isotope analysis to determine the relative contributions of primary sources involving (1) direct-source apportionment in grains with a two-end-member model, (2) apportionment of soil and dustfall sources using the IsoSource model, and (3) the integration of results of (1) and (2) was notedly first proposed. The results indicated that mean contents of Pb in wheat and rice grains were 0.54 and 0.45 mg/kg and both the bio-concentration factors (BCF) were <<1; the ecological risk pollution indices were 1.35 for wheat grains and 1.11 for rice grains; hazard quotient (HQ) values for adult and child indicating health risks through ingestion of grains were all <1; Coal-fired industrial sources account for up to 60% of Pb in the grains. This study provides insights into the management of grain Pb pollution and a new method for its source apportionment.

scholarly journals Design and Contruction of Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Triple-Stage Savonius Type as the Alternative Wind Power Plant

KnE Energy ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Tedy Harsanto ◽  
Haryo Dwi Prananto ◽  
Esmar Budi ◽  
Hadi Nasbey
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Output Power ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Wind Power Plant ◽  
Vertical Axis Wind Turbine ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Simple Materials

<p>A vertical axis wind turbine triple-stage savonius type has been created by using simple materials to generate electricity for the alternative wind power plant. The objective of this research is to design a simple wind turbine which can operate with low wind speed. The turbine was designed by making three savonius rotors and then varied the structure of angle on the three rotors, 0˚, 90˚ and 120˚. The dimension of the three rotors are created equal with each rotor diameter 35 cm and each rotor height 19 cm. The turbine was tested by using blower as the wind sources. Through the measurements obtained the comparisons of output power, rotation of turbine, and the level of efficiency generated by the three variations. The result showed that the turbine with angle of 120˚ operate most optimally because it is able to produce the highest output power and highest rotation of turbine which is 0.346 Watt and 222.7 RPM. </p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: Output power; savonius turbine; triple-stage; the structure of angle</p>

Research on Low-Wind-Speed Wind Power

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 1811-1814
Author(s):  
Hai Hui Song ◽  
Jian Jun Wang ◽  
Zhi Hua Hu ◽  
Jin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Research Development ◽  
High Wind ◽  
Power Development ◽  
High Wind Speed ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Key Technologies ◽  
Wind Power Development

For high-wind-speed wind power development and problems, propose development and application of low-wind-speed wind power (LWSP). Analysis of the characteristics of LWSP , advantages and necessity of development and application of it. Research the key technologies of LWSP development. It ultimately lay the foundation for research, development and application of LWSP technologies.

Risk assessment of coal mine safety production management activities based on FMEA-BN

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Xiaochuan Wang ◽  
Huixian Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coal Mine ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mine Safety ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Layer By Layer ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Coal Mine Safety ◽  
Safety Production

At present, the situation of coal mine safety production is still grim. The key to solve the problem is to analyze the risk of management activities in the process of coal mine safety production. This paper takes the management activities in the process of coal mine safety production as the research object. Firstly, according to the coal mine safety production standardization management system, the safety production management activities are carried out layer by layer. Then, the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is used to identify the human errors that lead to the failure of management activities at all levels of coal mine. Furthermore, the Fuzzy Set Theory is used to determine the evaluation results of experts on the risk level of coal mine safety production management activities. Combined with Bayesian network (BN), the risk assessment model of coal mine safety production management activities is established. Through the model, the risk probability of coal mine enterprise management activities is accurately calculated. According to the evaluation results, the risk of management activities in coal mine safety production is analyzed.

scholarly journals MEVA - a new method of occupational health and safety risk assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 290 ◽  
pp. 12008
Author(s):  
Doru-Costin Darabont ◽  
Eduard Smîdu ◽  
Alina Trifu ◽  
Vicențiu Ciocîrlea ◽  
Iulian Ivan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Occupational Health And Safety ◽  
New Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Safety Risk

The paper describes a new method of occupational health and safety risk assessment. This method, called MEVA, unlike the old ones, focuses more on reduce or eliminate subjective issues in determining the probability of manifestation of risk factors and is based on a deductive reasoning, with the help of which is studied the chain between two or more events. The novelty of the method consists in combining risk assessment techniques with evaluation of compliance with legal and other requirements, aiming to provide a more objective results of the risk assessment. In the MEVA method, the risk matrix is defined by 5 classes of severity and 5 probability classes, resulting in 5 levels of risk. After quantifying the risk factors, prevention measures are proposed for all the identified risk factors and each partial risk level is recalculated as a result of the proposed measures. The five levels of risk were grouped into three categories: acceptable, tolerable and unacceptable. The MEVA method is a simple method and it can be used for assessing various workplaces, with different characteristics of complexity, activity domain or occupational health and safety recordings.

A WebGIS-Based System for Urban Stormwater Risk Analysis Using a Cloud Matter-Element Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-99
Author(s):  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Cong Yu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Urban Stormwater ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Prototype Development ◽  
Matter Element Model

The interaction of human activity, climate change, and urbanization gives rise to more frequent urban stormwater disasters, which causes great economic loss in cities. This article presents a prototype of an interactive WebGIS system for urban stormwater risk analysis. The system has a Browse/Server(B/S) structure and uses WebGIS techniques for prototype development. It is based on the theory of disaster system and Cloud matter-element model for risk assessment. The risk results are immediately generated and visualized interactively by rendering risk maps. Finally, two urban stormwater events in Nanjing in 2015 and 2016 were selected to verify the accuracy of the risk assessment. The results show that the intelligence system can effectively assess the risk level and identify the spatial-temporal distribution of urban stormwater risk in Nanjing, China.

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