scholarly journals Tourism Growth Prediction Based on Deep Learning Approach

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Xiaoling Ren ◽  
Yanyan Li ◽  
JuanJuan Zhao ◽  
Yan Qiang
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Demand Prediction ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Search Intensity ◽  
Actual Volume ◽  
Excess Number ◽  
Tourist Demand

The conventional tourism demand prediction models are currently facing several challenges due to the excess number of search intensity indices that are used as indicators of tourism demand. In this work, the framework for deep learning-based monthly prediction of the volumes of Macau tourist arrivals was presented. The main objective in this study is to predict the tourism growth via one of the deep learning algorithms of extracting new features. The outcome of this study showed that the performance of the adopted deep learning framework was better than that of artificial neural network and support vector regression models. Practitioners can rely on the identified relevant features from the developed framework to understand the nature of the relationships between the predictive factors of tourist demand and the actual volume of tourist arrival.

scholarly journals Enabling deeper learning on big data for materials informatics applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipendra Jha ◽  
Vishu Gupta ◽  
Logan Ward ◽  
Zijiang Yang ◽  
Christopher Wolverton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Materials Science ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Materials Informatics ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Significant Attention

AbstractThe application of machine learning (ML) techniques in materials science has attracted significant attention in recent years, due to their impressive ability to efficiently extract data-driven linkages from various input materials representations to their output properties. While the application of traditional ML techniques has become quite ubiquitous, there have been limited applications of more advanced deep learning (DL) techniques, primarily because big materials datasets are relatively rare. Given the demonstrated potential and advantages of DL and the increasing availability of big materials datasets, it is attractive to go for deeper neural networks in a bid to boost model performance, but in reality, it leads to performance degradation due to the vanishing gradient problem. In this paper, we address the question of how to enable deeper learning for cases where big materials data is available. Here, we present a general deep learning framework based on Individual Residual learning (IRNet) composed of very deep neural networks that can work with any vector-based materials representation as input to build accurate property prediction models. We find that the proposed IRNet models can not only successfully alleviate the vanishing gradient problem and enable deeper learning, but also lead to significantly (up to 47%) better model accuracy as compared to plain deep neural networks and traditional ML techniques for a given input materials representation in the presence of big data.

scholarly journals kGCN: A Graph-Based Deep Learning Framework for Chemical Structures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryosuke Kojima ◽  
Shoichi Ishida ◽  
Masateru Ohta ◽  
Hiroaki Iwata ◽  
Teruki Honma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bayesian Optimization ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Chemical Structures ◽  
Programming Skills ◽  
Model Tuning ◽  
Interpretation Of Results

<div>Deep learning is developing as an important technology to perform various tasks in cheminformatics. In particular, graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have been reported to perform well in many types of prediction tasks related to molecules. Although GCN exhibits considerable potential in various applications, appropriate utilization of this resource for obtaining reasonable and reliable prediction results requires thorough understanding of GCN and programming. To leverage the power of GCN to benefit various users from chemists to cheminformaticians, an open-source GCN tool, kGCN, is introduced. To support the users with various levels of programming skills, kGCN includes three interfaces: a graphical user interface (GUI) employing KNIME for users with limited programming skills such as chemists, as well as command-line and Python library interfaces for users with advanced programming skills such as cheminformaticians. To support the three steps required for building a prediction model, i.e., pre-processing, model tuning, and interpretation of results, kGCN includes functions of typical pre-processing, Bayesian optimization for automatic model tuning, and visualization of the atomic contribution to prediction for interpretation of results. kGCN supports three types of approaches, single-task, multi-task, and multimodal predictions. The prediction of compound-protein interaction for four matrixmetalloproteases, MMP-3, -9, -12 and -13, in the inhibition assays is performed as a representative case study using kGCN. Additionally, kGCN provides the visualization of atomic contributions to the prediction. Such visualization is useful for the validation of the prediction models and the design of molecules based on the prediction model, realizing “explainable AI” for understanding the factors affecting AI prediction. kGCN is available at https://github.com/clinfo/kGCN.</div>

scholarly journals RPITER: A Hierarchical Deep Learning Framework for ncRNA–Protein Interaction Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Peng ◽  
Siyu Han ◽  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Ying Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Protein Interaction ◽  
Rna Binding ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rna Binding Proteins ◽  
Biological Research ◽  
Sequence Information ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Coding Method

Non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) play crucial roles in multiple fundamental biological processes, such as post-transcriptional gene regulation, and are implicated in many complex human diseases. Mostly ncRNAs function by interacting with corresponding RNA-binding proteins. The research on ncRNA–protein interaction is the key to understanding the function of ncRNA. However, the biological experiment techniques for identifying RNA–protein interactions (RPIs) are currently still expensive and time-consuming. Due to the complex molecular mechanism of ncRNA–protein interaction and the lack of conservation for ncRNA, especially for long ncRNA (lncRNA), the prediction of ncRNA–protein interaction is still a challenge. Deep learning-based models have become the state-of-the-art in a range of biological sequence analysis problems due to their strong power of feature learning. In this study, we proposed a hierarchical deep learning framework RPITER to predict RNA–protein interaction. For sequence coding, we improved the conjoint triad feature (CTF) coding method by complementing more primary sequence information and adding sequence structure information. For model design, RPITER employed two basic neural network architectures of convolution neural network (CNN) and stacked auto-encoder (SAE). Comprehensive experiments were performed on five benchmark datasets from PDB and NPInter databases to analyze and compare the performances of different sequence coding methods and prediction models. We found that CNN and SAE deep learning architectures have powerful fitting abilities for the k-mer features of RNA and protein sequence. The improved CTF coding method showed performance gain compared with the original CTF method. Moreover, our designed RPITER performed well in predicting RNA–protein interaction (RPI) and could outperform most of the previous methods. On five widely used RPI datasets, RPI369, RPI488, RPI1807, RPI2241 and NPInter, RPITER obtained A U C of 0.821, 0.911, 0.990, 0.957 and 0.985, respectively. The proposed RPITER could be a complementary method for predicting RPI and constructing RPI network, which would help push forward the related biological research on ncRNAs and lncRNAs.

scholarly journals Deep Learning Approach to Power Demand Forecasting in Polish Power System

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 6154
Author(s):  
Tomasz Ciechulski ◽  
Stanisław Osowski
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Power System ◽  
Radial Basis Function Network ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Power Demand ◽  
Diagnostic Features ◽  
Demand Prediction

The paper presents a new approach to predicting the 24-h electricity power demand in the Polish Power System (PPS, or Krajowy System Elektroenergetyczny—KSE) using the deep learning approach. The prediction system uses a deep multilayer autoencoder to generate diagnostic features and an ensemble of two neural networks: multilayer perceptron and radial basis function network and support vector machine in regression model, for final 24-h forecast one-week advance. The period of the data that is the subject of the experiments is 2014–2019, which has been divided into two parts: Learning data (2014–2018), and test data (2019). The numerical experiments have shown the advantage of deep learning over classical approaches of neural networks for the problem of power demand prediction.

Application of deep learning methods for urban water demand forecast modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anjana G Rajakumar ◽  
Avi Anthony ◽  
Vinoth Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Demand Prediction ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Water Demand Forecast

&lt;p&gt;Water demand predictions forms an integral part of sustainable management practices for water supply systems. Demand prediction models aides in water system maintenance, expansions, daily operational planning and in the development of an efficient decision support system based on predictive analytics. In recent years, it has also found wide application in real-time control and operation of water systems as well. However, short term water demand forecasting is a challenging problem owing to the frequent variations present in the urban water demand patterns. There are numerous methods available in literature that deals with water demand forecasting. These methods can be roughly classified into statistical and machine learning methods. The application of deep learning methods for forecasting water demands is an upcoming research area that has found immense traction due to its ability to provide accurate and scalable models. But there are only a few works which compare and review these methods when applied to a water demand dataset. Hence, the main objective of this work is the application of different commonly used deep learning methods for development of a short-term water demand forecast model for a real-world dataset. The algorithms studied in this work are (i) Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) (ii) Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) (iii) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) (iv) Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and (v) the hybrid algorithm CNN-LSTM. Optimal supervised learning framework required for forecasting the one day ahead water demand for the study area is also identified. The dataset used in this study is from Hillsborough County, Florida, US. The water demand data was available for a duration of 10 months and the data frequency is about once per hour. These algorithms were evaluated based on the (1) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and (ii) Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values. Visual comparison of the predicted and true demand plots was also employed to check the prediction accuracy. It was observed that, the RMSE and MAPE values were minimal for the supervised learning framework that used the previous 24-hour data as input. Also, with respect to the forecast accuracy, CNN-LSTM performed better than the other methods for demand forecast, followed by MLP. MAPE values for the developed deep learning models ranged from 5% to 25%. The quantity, frequency and quality of data was also found to have substantial impact on the accuracy of the forecast models developed. In the CNN-LSTM based forecast model, the CNN component was found to effectively extract the inherent characteristics of historical water consumption data such as the trend and seasonality, while the LSTM part was able to reflect on the long-term historical process and future trend. Thus, its water demand prediction accuracy was improved compared to the other methods such as GRU, MLP, CNN and LSTM.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals kGCN: A Graph-Based Deep Learning Framework for Chemical Structures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryosuke Kojima ◽  
Shoichi Ishida ◽  
Masateru Ohta ◽  
Hiroaki Iwata ◽  
Teruki Honma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bayesian Optimization ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Chemical Structures ◽  
Programming Skills ◽  
Model Tuning ◽  
Interpretation Of Results

<div>Deep learning is developing as an important technology to perform various tasks in cheminformatics. In particular, graph convolutional neural networks (GCNs) have been reported to perform well in many types of prediction tasks related to molecules. Although GCN exhibits considerable potential in various applications, appropriate utilization of this resource for obtaining reasonable and reliable prediction results requires thorough understanding of GCN and programming. To leverage the power of GCN to benefit various users from chemists to cheminformaticians, an open-source GCN tool, kGCN, is introduced. To support the users with various levels of programming skills, kGCN includes three interfaces: a graphical user interface (GUI) employing KNIME for users with limited programming skills such as chemists, as well as command-line and Python library interfaces for users with advanced programming skills such as cheminformaticians. To support the three steps required for building a prediction model, i.e., pre-processing, model tuning, and interpretation of results, kGCN includes functions of typical pre-processing, Bayesian optimization for automatic model tuning, and visualization of the atomic contribution to prediction for interpretation of results. kGCN supports three types of approaches, single-task, multi-task, and multimodal predictions. The prediction of compound-protein interaction for four matrixmetalloproteases, MMP-3, -9, -12 and -13, in the inhibition assays is performed as a representative case study using kGCN. Additionally, kGCN provides the visualization of atomic contributions to the prediction. Such visualization is useful for the validation of the prediction models and the design of molecules based on the prediction model, realizing “explainable AI” for understanding the factors affecting AI prediction. kGCN is available at https://github.com/clinfo/kGCN.</div>

scholarly journals Direct Prediction of the Toxic Gas Diffusion Rule in a Real Environment Based on LSTM

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Qian ◽  
Li Chen ◽  
Jun Li ◽  
Chao Ding ◽  
Xianfu Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Gas Diffusion ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Toxic Gas ◽  
Lstm Network

Predicting the diffusion rule of toxic gas plays a distinctly important role in emergency capability assessment and rescue work. Among diffusion prediction models, the traditional artificial neural network has exhibited excellent performance not only in prediction accuracy but also in calculation time. Nevertheless, with the continuous development of deep learning and data science, some new prediction models based on deep learning algorithms have been shown to be more advantageous because their structure can better discover internal laws and external connections between input data and output data. The long short-term memory (LSTM) network is a kind of deep learning neural network that has demonstrated outstanding achievements in many prediction fields. This paper applies the LSTM network directly to the prediction of toxic gas diffusion and uses the Project Prairie Grass dataset to conduct experiments. Compared with the Gaussian diffusion model, support vector machine (SVM) model, and back propagation (BP) network model, the LSTM model of deep learning has higher prediction accuracy (especially for the prediction at the point of high concentration values) while avoiding the occurrence of negative concentration values and overfitting problems found in traditional artificial neural network models.

scholarly journals Machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multisource Internet data approach

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinda Thalia Andariesta ◽  
Meditya Wasesa
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Machine Learning Models

PurposeThis research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.Design/methodology/approachTo develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).FindingsPrediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.Originality/valueFirst, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.

scholarly journals Research on Quantitative Investment Strategies Based on Deep Learning

Algorithms ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujie Fang ◽  
Juan Chen ◽  
Zhengxuan Xue
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Time Segment ◽  
Transaction Price

This paper takes 50 ETF options in the options market with high transaction complexity as the research goal. The Random Forest (RF) model, the Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) model, and the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model are used to predict 50 ETF price. Firstly, the original quantitative investment strategy is taken as the research object, and the 15 min trading frequency, which is more in line with the actual trading situation, is used, and then the Delta hedging concept of the options is introduced to control the risk of the quantitative investment strategy, to achieve the 15 min hedging strategy. Secondly, the final transaction price, buy price, highest price, lowest price, volume, historical volatility, and the implied volatility of the time segment marked with 50 ETF are the seven key factors affecting the price of 50 ETF. Then, two different types of LSTM-SVR models, LSTM-SVR I and LSTM-SVR II, are used to predict the final transaction price of the 50 ETF in the next time segment. In LSTM-SVR I model, the output of LSTM and seven key factors are combined as the input of SVR model. In LSTM-SVR II model, the hidden state vectors of LSTM and seven key factors are combined as the inputs of the SVR model. The results of the two LSTM-SVR models are compared with each other, and the better one is applied to the trading strategy. Finally, the benefit of the deep learning-based quantitative investment strategy, the resilience, and the maximum drawdown are used as indicators to judge the pros and cons of the research results. The accuracy and deviations of the LSTM-SVR prediction models are compared with those of the LSTM model and those of the RF model. The experimental results show that the quantitative investment strategy based on deep learning has higher returns than the traditional quantitative investment strategy, the yield curve is more stable, and the anti-fall performance is better.

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