Abstract P067: Long-term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Type 2 Diabetes Incidence: A Time Series Analysis
Introduction: Epidemiological evidence on long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and type 2 diabetes (T2D) incidence are sparse, and the results are contradictory. Hypothesis: We performed a time-series analysis to investigate potential association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and T2D incidence in the Chinese population. Methods: Monthly time-series data between 2008-2015 on ambient air pollutants and incident T2D were obtained from the Environment Monitoring Center of Ningbo and the Chronic Disease Surveillance System of Ningbo. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) of incident T2D per 10 μg/m 3 increase in ambient air pollutants were estimated from Poisson generalized additive models and adjusted for month, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind speed. This model was combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to determine the relative risks. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcome measure was T2D incidence. Results: Long-term exposure to particulate matter <10 μm (PM10) and Sulphur dioxide (SO2) were associated with increased T2D incidence. The relative risks (RRs) of each increment in 10 μg/m 3 of PM10 and SO2 were 1.62 (95%CI, 1.16 to 2.28) and 1.63 (95%CI, 1.12 to 2.38) for overall participants, 1.56 (95%CI, 1.12 to 2.17) and 1.59 (95%CI, 1.14 to 2.23) for males, 1.68 (95%CI, 1.15 to 2.44) and 1.76 (95%CI, 1.21 to 2.56) for females, respectively. Whereas for ozone (O3) exposure, the RRs were 0.78 (95%CI, 0.68 to 0.90) for overall participants, 0.78 (95%CI, 0.69 to 0.90) for males, and 0.78 (95%CI, 0.67 to 0.91) for females, respectively. Female participants were more prone to develop T2D after long-term exposed to ambient air pollutants than male counterparts. No statistically significant associations were observed for PM2.5, NO2, and CO exposures, nor in the two- and three-pollutant models. Conclusions: Long-term exposure to PM10 and SO2 is positively associated with T2D incidence, whereas O3 is negatively associated with T2D incidence.