Spending Response to a Predictable Increase in Mortgage Repayments: Evidence from Expiring Interest-Only Loans

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Henrik Yde Andersen ◽  
Stine Ludvig Bech ◽  
Alessia De Stefani
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Average Increase ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Income Shock ◽  
Spending Behavior ◽  
The Universe

Abstract We study how homeowners' consumption responds to a negative and anticipated disposable income shock: the beginning of the amortization period on interest-only mortgages. We identify spending behavior through an event study approach, by matching loan-level data that covers the universe of Danish mortgages to detailed administrative registries on borrowers. In response to an average increase in installments worth 9 percent of income, consumption drops by 3 percent of income, when amortization begins. The reduction in expenditure is persistent. Borrowers who fail to smooth consumption are highly leveraged and likely to be denied a new interest-only loan, upon expiration.

scholarly journals Is ESG Relevant to Electricity Companies during Pandemics? A Case Study on European Firms during COVID-19

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 852
Author(s):  
Florin Teodor Boldeanu ◽  
José Antonio Clemente-Almendros ◽  
Ileana Tache ◽  
Luis Alberto Seguí-Amortegui
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Initial Phase ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Study Approach

The electricity sector was negatively impacted by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), with considerable declines in consumption in the initial phase. Investors were in turmoil, and stock prices for these companies plummeted. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the significant negative influence of the pandemic on abnormal returns for the electricity sector, specifically for traditional and renewable companies and the influence of ESG scores, using the event study approach and multi-variate regressions. Our results show that the pandemic indeed had a negative impact on the electricity sector, with renewable electricity companies suffering a sharper decline than traditional ones. Moreover, we find that ESG pillar scores affected electricity companies differently and are sector-specific. For renewable electricity companies, the returns were positively influenced by the environmental ESG scores and negatively by governance ESG scores.

scholarly journals Profiting on the Stock Market in Pandemic Times: Study of COVID-19 Effects on CESEE Stock Markets

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
pp. 2077
Author(s):  
Tihana Škrinjarić
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Stock Market Reactions

This research deals with stock market reactions of Central Eastern and South Eastern European (CESEE) markets to the COVID-19 pandemic, via the event study methodology approach. Since the stock markets react quickly to certain announcements, the used methodology is appropriate to evaluate how the aforementioned markets reacted to certain events. The purpose of this research was to evaluate possibilities of obtaining profits on the stock markets during great turbulences, when a majority of the participants panic. More specifically, the contrarian trading strategies are observed if they can obtain gains, although a majority of the markets suffer great losses during pandemic shocks. The contributions to the existing literature of this research are as follows. Firstly, empirical research on CESEE stock markets regarding other relevant topics is still scarce and should be explored more. Secondly, the event study approach of COVID-19 effects utilized in this study has (to the knowledge of the author) not yet been explored on the aforementioned markets. Thirdly, based on the results of CESEE market reactions to specific announcements regarding COVID-19, a simulation of simple trading strategies will be made in order to estimate whether some investors could have profited in certain periods. The results of the study indicate promising results in terms of exploiting other investors’ panicking during the greatest decline of stock market indices. Namely, the initial results, as expected, indicate strong negative effects of specific COVID-19 announcements on the selected stock markets. Secondly, the obtained information was shown to be useful for contrarian strategy in order to exploit great dips in the stock market indices values.

Eine Gabe an St. Nimmerlein? - Zur zeitlichen Dimension der Schuldenbremse

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 246-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friedrich Heinemann
Keyword(s):  
Disposable Income ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Current Economic Crisis ◽  
Automatic Stabilizer ◽  
The Us ◽  
Income Shock ◽  
Large Heterogeneity ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThis paper analyzes the effectiveness of the tax and transfer systems in the European Union and the US to act as an automatic stabilizer in the current economic crisis. We consider two scenarios: a proportional income shock and a shock on employment which increases the rate of unemployment.We find that automatic stabilizers absorb 38 per cent of a proportional income shock in the EU, compared to 32 per cent in the US. In the case of an unemployment shock 48 per cent of the shock is absorbed in the EU, compared to 34 per cent in the US. Under the assumption that only credit constrained households adjust current spending on consumption goods to current disposable income, the cushioning of disposable income leads to a demand stabilization of 26 to 35 per cent in the EU and 19 per cent in the US. There is large heterogeneity within the EU. Automatic stabilizers in Eastern and Southern Europe are much lower than in Central and Northern European countries. With respect to income stabilization, Germany is above the European average for both scenarios. Demand stabilization in Germany is weaker because the number of liquidity constrained households is below the EU average.

scholarly journals The Effect of Dividend Initiation on Short-run Return in Indonesia: An Event Study with Propensity Score Matching Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 207
Author(s):  
Bambang Sugeng
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Propensity Score Matching ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Short Run

<p>Dividend initiation policy offers a relatively unique practical and conceptual characteristics compared to those of regular dividend. This study aims at investigating whether initial dividend policy of Indonesian firms affects short-run stock return, while further exploring the implementation of a new event study approach, <em>propensity score matching</em>, as an experimental-like design. This approach is based on actual rather than estimated abnormal return commonly used in traditional approach. Applying this new approach, this study found no significant abnormal returns around dividend initiation announcement by firms listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The findings imply that the dividend initiation behavior of Indonesian firms is proved not fully to follow the theoretical framework of signaling model, a dividend model which is basically developed primarily based on regular dividend behavior. The results partly contradict those findings mostly resulted from researchs conducted in advanced market context but seem to support contextuality argument of dividend policy. From methodological perspective, this study identified that the use of propensity score matching approach needs a large number of firms from which control firms are selected, accordingly the study conducted in market with limited number of listed firms such as in Indonesia could generates selection problem of control firms that optimally match treated firms.</p>

scholarly journals The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Event Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Mortgage Rate ◽  
Mortgage Securities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
T Distribution

This paper uses event study analysis to estimate the impact of the United States Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) quantitative easing (QE) announcements on the mortgage market during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period. A total of 35 QE announcements are identified and their effects are evaluated. The best-fitting integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (IGARCH) model with skewed t distribution is used to measure the QE announcement effects on daily changes of the 30-year mortgage rate, the 30-year Treasury rate and the spread between them. Announcements suggesting the start of a new round of QE reduced the mortgage rate tremendously, while the effects of further news diminished. Announcements of an increase in mortgage-backed security purchases decreased the mortgage rate more than the Treasury rate and reduced the credit risk of holding mortgage securities over Treasury securities. The delayed effects of QE announcements on the mortgage rate were less than short-run effects but persistent. We also find that the previous literature overestimates QE effects on interest rates in general.

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