Understanding Economic and Social Developments in the Periphery: Bulgarian National Income 1892–1924
This article aims at a reconstruction of reliable estimates of Bulgarian GNP growth. The main methodological point of reference is a work published in the 1940s by a contemporary Bulgarian economist, Asen Chakalov. Given the sophistication of Chakalov’s estimates and the desirability of chaining new data onto his estimate for 1924, the article’s methodology consists in the first instance in replicating his figure for 1924 on the basis of original sources and then using these same sources to create a series of properly documented estimates for the years between 1892 and 1924. To provide a meaningful comparison over the long run between 1892 and 1945, we must allow for price changes, population change, and the impact of territorial redistribution in the course of the Balkan Wars and World War I. The results are striking. For 1924 a reassuring match with Chakalov’s estimate is achieved. The new GNP series indicates that the Bulgarian economy did not achieve staggering results during the period in review—an average of 0.93% on a yearly basis. True, there were sub-periods in which the GNP was growing a bit faster (2.76% between 1899 and 1905, and 2.16% during 1905-1911); however, this is both a misleading (due to the low base of the crisis of 1899) and an unsustainable conclusion. Inserting the population factor into the picture makes the situation even more dismal. In per capita terms Bulgaria achieved a negative growth rate of –0.32% annually. The economy fell behind the population increase, which turned out to be a serious obstacle for switching over to a higher gear.