Selection for infectivity profiles in slow and fast epidemics, and the rise of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Evaluating the characteristics of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern is essential to inform pandemic risk assessment. A variant may grow faster if it produces a larger number of secondary infections (transmissibility advantage) or if the timing of secondary infections (generation time) is better. So far, assessments have largely focused on deriving the transmissibility advantage assuming the generation time was unchanged. Yet, knowledge of both is needed to anticipate impact. Here we develop an analytical framework to investigate the contribution of both the transmissibility advantage and generation time to the growth advantage of a variant. We find that the growth advantage depends on the epidemiological context (level of epidemic control). More specifically, variants conferring earlier transmission are more strongly favoured when the historical strains have fast epidemic growth, while variants conferring later transmission are more strongly favoured when historical strains have slow or negative growth. We develop these conceptual insights into a statistical framework to infer both the transmissibility advantage and generation time of a variant. On simulated data, our framework correctly estimates both parameters when it covers time periods characterized by different epidemiological contexts. Applied to data for the Alpha and Delta variants in England and in Europe, we find that Alpha confers a +54% [95% CI, 45-63%] transmissibility advantage compared to previous strains, and Delta +140% [98-182%] compared to Alpha, and mean generation times are similar to historical strains for both variants. This work helps interpret variant frequency and will strengthen risk assessment for future variants of concern.

Economic Facts Of Sumatra And Kalimantan Islands For 10 Years

Background: The formulation of this scientific research problem is what are the scientific facts that can be obtained, for 10 years on the island of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Research purposes: The purpose of this study is identifying scientific facts the direction and pattern of economic growth that occurs on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Research methods: The researcher applied quantitative approach, along with descriptive quantitative techniques. Research results: The results of this research are, there are 2 patterns of economic growth on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan during these 10 years. The trend towards growth on these two islands is, has a fluctuating tendency and has indications of a downward trend over the past 10 years. Some special findings are: (1) Aceh Province is quite risky, because over the past 10 years has historical economic growth movements that form the depth of the valley (can be indicated recession), (2) East Kalimantan as many as 4 times over the last 10 years, experiencing negative economic growth, (3) The plantation sector, through CPO exports is able to have its own impact, on the economy of South Kalimantan in 2020. Specifically for economic growth in 2020, it is a special record because of the overall economic growth of 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra and 5 provinces on the island of Kalimantan with negative growth performance. Conclusion: For Sumatra Island there are 2 different forms of patterns between provinces, pattern 1: Aceh, Riau and Riau Islands. For the case of Aceh province is quite risky because for the past 10 years, it has historical economic growth movements that can indicate recession

Analytical Study of Kharif Food Grain Production in Odisha

The state of Odisha having an agrarian based economy depends largely on agriculture for the livelihood of its population. Food grains are important commodity of crop groups that provide high quality carbohydrates, protein and vitamins. A study on the compound growth rate of area, yield and production of food grains for kharif season in the districts of Odisha and the state as a whole has been attempted in the present study which would be helpful in visualizing the progress of the state with respect to food grain cultivation and proper framing of agricultural policies of the state. The study is based secondary data for the period of 1993-94 to 2017-18 to estimate the compound growth rate and Cuddy-Della Instability Index of area, yield and production of kharif food grains for the districts and the state as a whole. The districts are ranked on the basis of compound growth rate and Cuddy-Della Instability Index in decreasing order and increasing order of their magnitudes respectively. The rank correlation between Compound Growth Rate and Cuddy-Della Instability Index of area, yield and production of food grains during kharif seasons are studied. It is found that despite negative growth rate in area, the positive compound growth rate of yield leads to positive compound growth rate in production of kharif food grains of Odisha. Also it is found that despite stability of area, the instability of yield leads to instability in production of kharif food grains in the state of Odisha.

Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) and Their Significance in Agricultural Trade of India and European Union

Aims: The research study aims to study the decadal growth in agricultural trade of top five agricultural commodities between India and the European Union and also the quantification of Non-Tariff Measures (NTM) of select agricultural commodities to give trade policy suggestions to the concerned commodity sectors Study Design and Methodology: A decadal growth in top five agricultural commodities were studied for 28 European Union Countries (EU-28) and India using Compounded Annual Growth Rate and NTM of three subsections of WTO were quantified using inventory-based approaches; coverage ratio and frequency index. Results and Conclusion: In terms of quantity exported, positive annual growth rate of 0.24, 0.48 and 0.76 per cent in marine products, coffee and castor oil is noticed. A negative growth of 0.67 and 2.6 per cent in spices and tobacco unmanufactured is witnessed during the study period. Export value recorded the positive annual growth rate of 2.96, per cent in marine products and spices and a negative growth of 1.7,0.16 and 2.8 per cent in coffee, castor oil and tobacco unmanufactured respectively. Export value per unit showed annual positive growth of 2.7,2.2 and 0.94 per cent in marine products, coffee and spices and negative growth of 0.91 and 0.22 per cent in castor oil and tobacco unmanufactured respectively. Both Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Measures had a greater impact in the agricultural export form India to EU-28 during 2010-11 to 2019-20.

Factors Determining the Revisit Intentions of the Tourists: A case study of Bhutan

Bhutan is an important tourist destination in South Asia, and its tourism industry has emerged as the second highest revenue generator next to hydropower. Retaining and enticing first-time tourists to revisit their country is an important policy adopted by many countries of the world. However, the growth trajectory of tourists’ flow to Bhutan changed with a sharp decline in the repeat tourists over the past straight 8 years (2011–2018) with an annual negative growth of 19.1%. Against this backdrop and the non-availability of any meaningful study on tourists’ revisit dynamics, this study investigates the factors associated with the Bhutan revisit intentions of regional and international tourists by using both quantitative and qualitative data. The quantitative data are analysed using multinomial logistic regression and are triangulated with qualitative findings. Factors such as perceived value of money, safety and control variables, viz. gender, age, category of tourists and employment are found significantly affecting tourists’ Bhutan revisit intentions. Eventually, this study also discusses policy implications at the level of the state and tour operators.

Eco-Efficiency for the G18: Trends and Future Outlook

Eco-efficiency is an important ecological indicator for tracking the progress of how countries’ environmental-adjusted economic activity changes over time. The objective of this research is to calculate country-level eco-efficiency for a group of 18 major countries (G18) that are part of the G20. First, the data envelope analysis (DEA) method is used to calculate eco-efficiency scores. Second, the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is used to examine how eco-efficiency changes over time. Eco-efficiency is forecast to the year 2040 using automated forecasting methods under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Over the period 1997 to 2040, eco-efficiency varies widely between these countries with some countries reporting positive growth in eco-efficiency and other countries reporting negative growth. Eco-efficiency leaders over the period 1997 to 2019 and 2019 to 2040 include Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Laggards include Canada, China, India, and Indonesia. These laggard countries recorded negative growth rates in eco-efficiency over the period 1997 to 2019 and 2019 to 2040. Negative eco-efficiency growth points to a worsening of environmental sustainability. Large variations in eco-efficiency between countries make it more difficult to negotiate international agreements on energy efficiency and climate change. For the G18 countries, the average annual change in MPI over the period 1997 to 2019 was 0.5%, while the forecasted average annual change over the period 2019 to 2040 was a 0.1% decrease. For the G18 countries, there has been little change in eco-efficiency. The G18 are an important group of developed and developing countries that need to show leadership when it comes to increasing eco-efficiency.

The steroid-inducible pOp6/LhGR gene expression system is fast, sensitive and does not cause plant growth defects in rice (Oryza sativa)

Inducible systems for transgene expression activated by a chemical inducer or an inducer of non-plant origin are desirable tools for both basic plant research and biotechnology. Although, the technology has been widely exploited in dicotyledonous model plants such as Arabidopsis, it has not been optimised for use with the monocotyledonous model species, namely rice. We have adapted the dexamethasone-inducible pOp6/LhGR system for rice and the results indicated that it is fast, sensitive and tightly regulated, with high levels of induction that remain stable over several generations. Most importantly, we have shown that the system does not cause negative growth defects in vitro or in soil grown plants. Interestingly in the process of testing, we found that another steroid, triamcinolone acetonide, is a more potent inducer in rice than dexamethasone. We present serious considerations for the construct design to avoid undesirable effects caused by the system in plants, leakiness and possible silencing, as well as simple steps to maximize translation efficiency of a gene of interest. Finally, we compare the performance of the pOp6/LhGR system with other chemically inducible systems tested in rice in terms of the properties of an ideal inducible system.

Growth Rate of Pulses in Eastern Uttar Pradesh a Zone-wise Analysis

Attempts are made in this paper to investigate the trend of pulses in Eastern Uttar Pradesh, as well as their instability and non-linear model. This time series data on pulses pertains to the period 1980-1981 to 2014-15 and includes information on the area, production, and productivity of pulses. Pulses have had negative growth in terms of area, production, and productivity in all three zones of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, namely, the North Eastern plain zone, the Eastern plain zone, and the Vindhyan zone. Since 1980-81, there has been a rise in the area and output of pulses in the Vindhyan zone, as seen by the percentage change. The Eastern plain zone has the most stable pulse crop in terms of instability

Are Economic Sanctions against North Korea Effective? Assessing Nighttime Light in 25 Major Cities

This study analyzes the effects of the economic sanctions against North Korea since 2016 on the economic well-being of North Korean cities. As a proxy for economic well-being, we use nighttime light (NTL), which we estimate from 1992 to 2019 through an inter-calibration process for DMSP/OLS and SNPP/VIIRS. We found that NTL in North Korea was getting brighter up until 2009, but that the growth rate of total NTL in 25 major North Korean cities began to decrease from 2016. The decline in the NTL growth rate of Pyongyang, the capital city, as well as in cities bordering China and in self-regenerating cities, was relatively slight. By contrast, the declines in the NTL growth rate of coal-mining cities and inland cities without sufficient production bases were greater than those in other cities, and some cities experienced negative growth in 2019. Cities in regions relying on coal mining have traditionally accounted for a large portion of North Korea's exports, and since these cities have been heavily affected by sanctions, coal mining could become a vulnerable sector, which would threaten North Korea's economic well-being.

A sink host allows a specialist herbivore to persist in a seasonal source

In seasonal environments, sinks that are more persistent than sources may serve as temporal stepping stones for specialists. However, this possibility has to our knowledge, not been demonstrated to date, as such environments are thought to select for generalists, and the role of sinks, both in the field and in the laboratory, is difficult to document. Here, we used laboratory experiments to show that herbivorous arthropods associated with seasonally absent main (source) habitats can endure on a suboptimal (sink) host for several generations, albeit with a negative growth rate. Additionally, they dispersed towards this host less often than towards the main host and accepted it less often than the main host. Finally, repeated experimental evolution attempts revealed no adaptation to the suboptimal host. Nevertheless, field observations showed that arthropods are found in suboptimal habitats when the main habitat is unavailable. Together, these results show that evolutionary rescue in the suboptimal habitat is not possible. Instead, the sink habitat functions as a temporal stepping stone, allowing for the persistence of a specialist when the source habitat is gone.