Three-Month FVC Change: A Trial Endpoint for IPF Based on Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Author(s):  
Fasihul A. Khan ◽  
Iain Stewart ◽  
Samuel Moss ◽  
Laura Fabbri ◽  
Karen A. Robinson ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fasihul Khan ◽  
Iain Stewart ◽  
Samuel Moss ◽  
Laura Fabbri ◽  
Karen A Robinson ◽  
...  

Rationale Novel therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are in development, but there remains uncertainty about the optimal trial endpoint. An earlier endpoint would enable assessment of a greater number of therapies in adaptive trial designs. Objectives Individual participant data (IPD) from placebo arms of interventional trials were sought to determine whether short-term changes in forced vital capacity (FVC), gas transfer for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and six-minute walk distance (6MWD) could act as surrogate endpoints to accelerate early-phase trials in IPF. Methods Electronic databases were searched on 1st December 2020, and IPD were sought and meta-analysed. The primary outcome was overall mortality according to baseline and/or three-month change in either FVC, DLCO or 6MWD, with a secondary outcome of disease progression at 12 months, adjusted for age, sex, smoking status and baseline physiology. Measurements and main results IPD was available for 10/23 eligible studies totalling 1819 participants. Baseline and three-month change in all physiological variables were independently associated with disease outcomes. A 2.5% relative decline in FVC over three months was associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.14, 95%CI 1.06;1.24, I2 = 59.9%) and disease progression (adjusted odds ratio 1.29; 95%CI 1.18;1.40, I2=67%). Optimal thresholds for three-month change in FVC for distinguishing disease outcomes were identified. Conclusions IPD meta-analysis of trial placebo arms demonstrated three-month change in physiological variables, particularly FVC, were associated with mortality and disease progression among individuals with untreated IPF. FVC change over three months may hold potential as a surrogate endpoint in IPF interventional adaptive trials.


BMJ ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 350 (jan12 13) ◽  
pp. g7772-g7772 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Virtanen ◽  
M. Jokela ◽  
S. T. Nyberg ◽  
I. E. H. Madsen ◽  
T. Lallukka ◽  
...  

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. e048119
Author(s):  
Dyuti Coomar ◽  
Jonathan M Hazlehurst ◽  
Frances Austin ◽  
Charlie Foster ◽  
Graham A Hitman ◽  
...  

IntroductionMothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at increased risk of pregnancy-related complications and developing type 2 diabetes after delivery. Diet and physical activity-based interventions may prevent GDM, but variations in populations, interventions and outcomes in primary trials have limited the translation of available evidence into practice. We plan to undertake an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomised trials to assess the differential effects and cost-effectiveness of diet and physical activity-based interventions in preventing GDM and its complications.MethodsThe International Weight Management in Pregnancy Collaborative Network database is a living repository of IPD from randomised trials on diet and physical activity in pregnancy identified through a systematic literature search. We shall update our existing search on MEDLINE, Embase, BIOSIS, LILACS, Pascal, Science Citation Index, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment Database without language restriction to identify relevant trials until March 2021. Primary researchers will be invited to join the Network and share their IPD. Trials including women with GDM at baseline will be excluded. We shall perform a one and two stage random-effect meta-analysis for each intervention type (all interventions, diet-based, physical activity-based and mixed approach) to obtain summary intervention effects on GDM with 95% CIs and summary treatment–covariate interactions. Heterogeneity will be summarised using I2 and tau2 statistics with 95% prediction intervals. Publication and availability bias will be assessed by examining small study effects. Study quality of included trials will be assessed by the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approach will be used to grade the evidence in the results. A model-based economic analysis will be carried out to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent GDM and its complications compared with usual care.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval is not required. The study is registered on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42020212884). Results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.


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