An Analysis of ENSO Prediction Skill in the CFS Retrospective Forecasts

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1801-1818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Huug van den Dool
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Western Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The present study documents the so-called spring prediction and persistence barriers in association with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) retrospective forecasts. It is found that the spring prediction and persistence barriers in the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are preceded by a boreal winter barrier in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress. The time of the persistence barrier is closely related to the time of the ENSO phase transition, but may differ from the time of the lowest variance. The seasonal change of the signal-to-noise ratio cannot explain the persistence barrier. While the noise may lead to a drop of skill around boreal spring in the western equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress, its impacts on the skill of eastern equatorial Pacific SST is small. The equatorial Pacific zonal winds display an excessive response to ENSO-related SST anomalies, which leads to a longer persistence in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth anomalies and a delayed transition of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. This provides an interpretation for the prediction skill drop in boreal spring in the eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The results suggest that improving the atmospheric model wind response to SST anomalies may reduce the spring prediction barrier.

scholarly journals Assessing the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO Variability in Terms of the Bjerknes Stability Index*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2577-2587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joke F. Lübbecke ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Stability Index ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
Ocean Reanalysis ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Bj Index ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract A decadal change in the character of ENSO was observed around year 2000 toward weaker-amplitude, higher-frequency events with an increased occurrence of central Pacific El Niños. Here these changes are assessed in terms of the Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), which is a measure of the growth rate of ENSO-related SST anomalies. The individual terms of the index are calculated from ocean reanalysis products separately for the time periods 1980–99 and 2000–10. The spread between the products is large, but they show a robust weakening of the thermocline feedback due to a reduced thermocline slope response to anomalous zonal wind stress as well as a weakened wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. These changes are consistent with changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific: cooler mean SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific results in reduced convection there together with a westward shift in the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This shift leads to a weakening in the relationship between eastern Pacific SST and longitudinally averaged equatorial zonal wind stress. Also, despite a steeper mean thermocline slope in the more recent period, the thermocline slope response to wind stress anomalies weakened due to a smaller zonal wind fetch that results from ENSO-related wind anomalies being more confined to the western basin. As a result, the total BJ index is more negative, corresponding to a more strongly damped system in the past decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

scholarly journals Wind Stress Variations and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Stress Variations

Abstract Vertical advection of temperature is the primary mechanism by which El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Variations in vertical advection are mediated primarily by remote wind-forced thermocline displacements, which control the temperature of water upwelled to the surface. However, during some ENSO events, large wind stress variations occur in the eastern Pacific that in principle should affect local upwelling rates, the depth of the thermocline, and SST. In this study, the impact of these wind stress variations on the eastern equatorial Pacific is addressed using multiple linear regression analysis and a linear equatorial wave model. The regression analysis indicates that a zonal wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m−2 leads to approximately a 1°C SST anomaly over the Niño-3 region (5°N–5°S, 90°–150°W) due to changes in local upwelling rates. Wind stress variations of this magnitude occurred in the eastern Pacific during the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niños, accounting for about 1/3 of the maximum SST anomaly during these events. The linear equatorial wave model also indicates that depending on the period in question, zonal wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific can work either with or against remote wind stress forcing from the central and western Pacific to determine the thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific. Thus, zonal wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific contribute to the generation of interannual SST anomalies through both changes in local upwelling rates and changes in thermocline depth. Positive feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere in the eastern Pacific are shown to influence the evolution of the surface wind field, especially during strong El Niño events, emphasizing the coupled nature of variability in the region. Implications of these results for understanding the character of event-to-event differences in El Niño and La Niña are discussed.

scholarly journals Near-Annual SST Variability in the Equatorial Pacific in a Coupled General Circulation Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 4454-4473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Zonal Advection ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Annual Mode ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) interactive ensemble coupled general circulation model show near-annual variability as well as biennial El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. There are two types of near-annual modes: a westward propagating mode and a stationary mode. For the westward propagating near-annual mode, warm SST anomalies are generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific in boreal spring and propagate westward in boreal summer. Consistent westward propagation is seen in precipitation, surface wind, and ocean current. For the stationary near-annual mode, warm SST anomalies develop near the date line in boreal winter and decay locally in boreal spring. Westward propagation of warm SST anomalies also appears in the developing year of the biennial ENSO mode. However, warm SST anomalies for the westward propagating near-annual mode occur about two months earlier than those for the biennial ENSO mode and are quickly replaced by cold SST anomalies, whereas warm SST anomalies for the biennial ENSO mode only experience moderate weakening. Anomalous zonal advection contributes to the generation and westward propagation of warm SST anomalies for both the westward propagating near-annual mode and the biennial ENSO mode. However, the role of mean upwelling is markedly different. The mean upwelling term contributes to the generation of warm SST anomalies for the biennial ENSO mode, but is mainly a damping term for the westward propagating near-annual mode. The development of warm SST anomalies for the stationary near-annual mode is partially due to anomalous zonal advection and upwelling, similar to the amplification of warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific for the biennial ENSO mode. The mean upwelling term is negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific for the stationary near-annual mode, which is opposite to the ENSO mode. The development of cold SST anomalies in the aftermath of warm SST anomalies for the westward propagating near-annual mode is coupled to large easterly wind anomalies, which occur between the warm and cold SST anomalies. The easterly anomalies contribute to the cold SST anomalies through anomalous zonal, meridional, and vertical advection and surface evaporation. The cold SST anomalies, in turn, enhance the easterly anomalies through a Rossby-wave-type response. The above processes are most effective during boreal spring when the mean near-surface-layer ocean temperature gradient is the largest. It is suggested that the westward propagating near-annual mode is related to air–sea interaction processes that are limited to the near-surface layers.

scholarly journals Using Initialized Hindcasts to Assess Simulations of 1970–2009 Equatorial Pacific SST, Zonal Wind Stress, and Surface Flux Trends

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (19) ◽  
pp. 7385-7393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress

Abstract Initialized decadal hindcasts are used to assess simulations of 1970–2009 equatorial Pacific SST, zonal wind stress, and surface flux trends. Initialized hindcasts are useful to assess how well the models simulate observed trends, as well as how simulations of observed trends (due primarily to natural variability) differ from ensemble-mean forecasted trends (due to the response to an increase in external forcing). All models forecast a statistically significant warming trend in both the warm-pool and cold-tongue regions. However, while the warm-pool warming trend is within the observed estimates, the cold-tongue warming trend is an order of magnitude larger than an ENSO residual estimated using SST instrumental reconstructions. Multimodel ensemble means formed using forecasts 6–10 years from initialization with 40 ensemble members do not produce an unambiguous zonal SST gradient response to an increase in external forcing. Systematic biases are identified in forecasts of surface fluxes. For example, in the warm-pool region all year-1 forecasts produce SST trends similar to observations but ocean mixed layer and net surface heat flux trends with an opposite sign to air–sea datasets. In addition, year-1 forecasts produce positive shortwave feedbacks on decadal time scales, whereas 6–10-yr forecasts produce negative or statistically insignificant shortwave flux feedbacks on decadal time scales, suggesting sensitivity to circulations forced by the initialized ocean state. In the cold-tongue region initialized ensembles forecast positive net radiative flux trends even though shortwave flux trends are negative (i.e., for increasing cloudiness). This is inconsistent with air–sea datasets, which uniformly show that the net surface radiative flux feedback is a damping of the underlying SSTs.

scholarly journals The Effect of Wind Stress Anomalies and Location in Driving Pacific Subtropical Cells and Tropical Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Graffino ◽  
Riccardo Farneti ◽  
Fred Kucharski ◽  
Franco Molteni
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Wind Stress Anomaly ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The importance of subtropical and extratropical zonal wind stress anomalies on Pacific subtropical cell (STC) strength is assessed through several idealized and realistic numerical experiments with a global ocean model. Different zonal wind stress anomalies are employed, and their intensity is strengthened or weakened with respect to the climatological value throughout a suite of simulations. Subtropical strengthened (weakened) zonal wind stress anomalies result in increased (decreased) STC meridional mass and energy transport. When upwelling of subsurface water into the tropics is intensified (reduced), a distinct cold (warm) anomaly appears in the equatorial thermocline and up to the surface, resulting in significant tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The use of realistic wind stress anomalies also suggests a potential impact of midlatitude atmospheric modes of variability on tropical climate through STC dynamics. The remotely driven response is compared with a set of simulations where an equatorial zonal wind stress anomaly is imposed. A dynamically distinct response is achieved, whereby the equatorial thermocline adjusts to the wind stress anomaly, resulting in significant equatorial SST anomalies as in the remotely forced simulations but with no role for STCs. Significant anomalies in Indonesian Throughflow transport are generated only when equatorial wind stress anomalies are applied, leading to remarkable heat content anomalies in the Indian Ocean. Equatorial wind stress anomalies do not involve modifications of STC transport but could set up the appropriate initial conditions for a tropical–extratropical teleconnection involving Hadley cells, exciting an STC anomalous transport, which ultimately feeds back on the tropics.

scholarly journals Experimental Implementation of an Ensemble Adjustment Filter for an Intermediate ENSO Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 4638-4658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia R. Karspeck ◽  
Jeffrey L. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Incomplete Observations ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Experimental Implementation ◽  
Independent Observations

Abstract The assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into a coupled ocean–atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific is investigated using an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). The intermediate coupled model used here is the operational version of the Zebiak–Cane model, called LDEO5. The assimilation is applied as a means of estimating the true state of the system in the presence of incomplete observations of the state. In the first part of this study assimilation is performed under the “perfect model” assumption, where SST observations are synthetically derived from a trajectory of the model. The focus is on how and why changes in the filter parameters (ensemble size, covariance localization, and covariance inflation) affect the quality of the analysis. It is shown that isotropic covariance localization does not benefit the analysis even when a small number of ensemble members are used. These results suggest that destruction of the “balance” between variables caused by localization is more detrimental than spurious correlation due to small ensemble size. In the second part of this study the EAKF is used to assimilate an independent dataset of SST observations. The EAKF/Zebiak–Cane assimilation system is able to correctly estimate the phase and intensity of ENSO, as measured by the average SST anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A comparison of the analysis herein to independent wind stress and thermocline depth datasets suggests that even with the assimilation of only SST observations it is possible to reproduce over 70% of the interannual variability of thermocline depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific and off the coast of the Philippine Islands. The interannual variability of zonal wind stress in the central and western equatorial Pacific is also well correlated with independent observations (R > 0.75).

scholarly journals Predictability Loss in an Intermediate ENSO Model due to Initial Error and Atmospheric Noise*

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3572-3588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia R. Karspeck ◽  
Alexey Kaplan ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
Initial Error ◽  
Ensemble Spread ◽  
Observational Error ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress

Abstract The seasonal and interannual predictability of ENSO variability in a version of the Zebiak–Cane coupled model is examined in a perturbation experiment. Instead of assuming that the model is “perfect,” it is assumed that a set of optimal initial conditions exists for the model. These states, obtained through a nonlinear minimization of the misfit between model trajectories and the observations, initiate model forecasts that correlate well with the observations. Realistic estimates of the observational error magnitudes and covariance structures of sea surface temperatures, zonal wind stress, and thermocline depth are used to generate ensembles of perturbations around these optimal initial states, and the error growth is examined. The error growth in response to subseasonal stochastic wind forcing is presented for comparison. In general, from 1975 to 2002, the large-scale uncertainty in initial conditions leads to larger error growth than continuous stochastic forcing of the zonal wind stress fields. Forecast ensemble spread is shown to depend most on the calendar month at the end of the forecast rather than the initialization month, with the seasons of greatest spread corresponding to the seasons of greatest anomaly variance. It is also demonstrated that during years with negative (and rapidly decaying) Niño-3 SST anomalies (such as the time period following an El Niño event), there is a suppression of error growth. In years with large warm ENSO events, the ensemble spread is no larger than in moderately warm years. As a result, periods with high ENSO variance have greater potential prediction utility. In the realistic range of observational error, the ensemble spread has more sensitivity to the initial error in the thermocline depth than to the sea surface temperature or wind stress errors. The thermocline depth uncertainty is the principal reason why initial condition uncertainties are more important than wind noise for ensemble spread.

The Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature and Thermocline Depth in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 643-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hein Zelle ◽  
Gerrian Appeldoorn ◽  
Gerrit Burgers ◽  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The time dependence of the local relation between sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline depth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is analyzed for the period 1990–99, using subsurface temperature measurements from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean Array/Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TAO/TRITON) buoy array. Thermocline depth anomalies lead SST anomalies in time, with a longitude-dependent delay ranging from 2 weeks in the eastern Pacific to 1 year in the central Pacific. The lagged correlation between thermocline depth and SST is strong, ranging from r > 0.9 in the east to r ≈ 0.6 at 170°W. Time-lagged correlations between thermocline depth and subsurface temperature anomalies indicate vertical advection of temperature anomalies from the thermocline to the surface in the eastern Pacific. The measurements are compared with the results of forced OGCM and linear model experiments. Using model results, it is shown that the delay between thermocline depth and SST is caused mainly by upwelling and mixing between 140° and 90°W. Between 170°E and 140°W the delay has a different explanation: thermocline depth anomalies travel to the eastern Pacific, where upwelling creates SST anomalies that in turn cause anomalous wind in the central Pacific. SST is then influenced by these wind anomalies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document