Enhancement of near-annual variability in the equatorial Pacific in 2000–2008

Like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the near-annual mode is an air–sea coupled mode of the tropical Pacific that can emerge within a relatively cool mean state. It is documented here from satellite observations over the 2000–2008 period based on a covariance analysis between wind stress and zonal current anomalies. It is shown that near-annual variability is enhanced over the last decade. The signature of this mode consists of a zonal seesaw pattern for zonal current with westward (eastward) anomalous currents in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. A composite analysis allows identifying the peak and transition phases of this mode, particularly active over 2000–2004. It is suggested that the reduction of the interannual variability in the eastern Pacific over the last decade may be related to the enhancement of the near-annual mode.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa Monsoon. Part I: Associations of Wavelet-Filtered Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Global Sea Surface Temperature

Horn of Africa rainfall varies on multiple time scales, but the underlying climate system controls on this variability have not been examined comprehensively. This study therefore investigates the linkages between June–September Horn of Africa (especially Ethiopian) rainfall and regional atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature (SST) variations on several key time scales. Wavelet analysis of 5-day average or monthly total rainfall for 1970–99 identifies the dominant coherent modes of rainfall variability. Several regional atmospheric variables and global SST are then identically wavelet filtered, based on the rainfall frequency bands. Regression, correlation, and composite analyses are subsequently used to identify the most important rainfall–climate system time-scale relationships. The results show that Ethiopian monsoon rainfall variation is largely linked with annual time-scale atmospheric circulation patterns involving variability in the major components of the monsoon system. Although variability on the seasonal (75–210 days), quasi-biennial (QB; 1.42–3.04 yr), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 3.04–4.60 yr) time scales accounts for much less variance than the annual mode (210 days–1.42 yr), they significantly affect Ethiopian rainfall by preferentially modulating the major regional monsoon components and remote teleconnection linkages. The seasonal time scale largely acts in phase with the annual mode, by enhancing or reducing the lower-tropospheric southwesterlies from the equatorial Atlantic during wet or dry periods. The wet QB phase strengthens the Azores and Saharan high and the tropical easterly jet (TEJ) over the Arabian Sea, while the wet ENSO phase enhances the Mascarene high, the TEJ, and the monsoon trough more locally. The effects of tropical SST on Ethiopian rainfall also are prominent on the QB and ENSO time scales. While rainfall–SST correlations for both the QB and ENSO modes are strongly positive (negative) over the equatorial western (eastern) Pacific, only ENSO exhibits widespread strong negative correlations over the Indian Ocean. Opposite QB and ENSO associations tend to characterize dry Ethiopian conditions. The relationships identified on individual time scales now are being used to develop and validate statistical prediction models for Ethiopia.

Interaction between Near-Annual and ENSO Modes in a CGCM Simulation: Role of the Equatorial Background Mean State

A 260-yr-long coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation is used to investigate the interaction between ENSO mode and near-annual variability and its sensitivity to the equatorial background mean stratification and seasonal cycles. Although the thermocline mean vertical structure of the model favors the high-order baroclinic modes that are associated with the slow time scales of the coupled variability, the simulated ENSO oscillates at a dominant quasi-biennial frequency. Biases of the climatological velocity field are favorable to the dominance of the zonal advective feedback over the thermocline feedback, the model exhibiting an overenergetic westward seasonal zonal current in the central-western equatorial Pacific, and an upwelling rate that is about half the observations. This sets the conditions for the enhancement of a near-annual mode that is observed to oscillate at an 8-month period in the model. Using an intermediate coupled model of the tropical Pacific where the climatological fields are prescribed to the ones derived from the CGCM, it is demonstrated that the quasi-biennial ENSO variability simulated by the CGCM is mostly due to the biases in the climatological currents of the CGCM. These biases favor the dominance of the fast “zonal advective feedback” over the slow “thermocline feedback” in the coupled system and enhance a fast coupled basin mode. This fast mode differs from the theoretical Pacific Ocean basin mode in that, besides mean temperature advection by the zonal current anomalies, it is also driven by anomalous temperature advection by the total current. Results suggest that the near-annual mode destabilizes the ENSO mode to produce overenergetic quasi-biennial oscillations in the model. It also contributes to the ENSO asymmetry and the cold bias of the CGCM mean state by nonlinear accumulation of temperature zonal advection, which works toward the cold in the western Pacific more than the warm in the east. It is suggested that the model equilibrium results from the interaction between the ENSO mode, the near-annual mode, and the mean state.

Near-Annual SST Variability in the Equatorial Pacific in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) interactive ensemble coupled general circulation model show near-annual variability as well as biennial El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. There are two types of near-annual modes: a westward propagating mode and a stationary mode. For the westward propagating near-annual mode, warm SST anomalies are generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific in boreal spring and propagate westward in boreal summer. Consistent westward propagation is seen in precipitation, surface wind, and ocean current. For the stationary near-annual mode, warm SST anomalies develop near the date line in boreal winter and decay locally in boreal spring. Westward propagation of warm SST anomalies also appears in the developing year of the biennial ENSO mode. However, warm SST anomalies for the westward propagating near-annual mode occur about two months earlier than those for the biennial ENSO mode and are quickly replaced by cold SST anomalies, whereas warm SST anomalies for the biennial ENSO mode only experience moderate weakening. Anomalous zonal advection contributes to the generation and westward propagation of warm SST anomalies for both the westward propagating near-annual mode and the biennial ENSO mode. However, the role of mean upwelling is markedly different. The mean upwelling term contributes to the generation of warm SST anomalies for the biennial ENSO mode, but is mainly a damping term for the westward propagating near-annual mode. The development of warm SST anomalies for the stationary near-annual mode is partially due to anomalous zonal advection and upwelling, similar to the amplification of warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific for the biennial ENSO mode. The mean upwelling term is negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific for the stationary near-annual mode, which is opposite to the ENSO mode. The development of cold SST anomalies in the aftermath of warm SST anomalies for the westward propagating near-annual mode is coupled to large easterly wind anomalies, which occur between the warm and cold SST anomalies. The easterly anomalies contribute to the cold SST anomalies through anomalous zonal, meridional, and vertical advection and surface evaporation. The cold SST anomalies, in turn, enhance the easterly anomalies through a Rossby-wave-type response. The above processes are most effective during boreal spring when the mean near-surface-layer ocean temperature gradient is the largest. It is suggested that the westward propagating near-annual mode is related to air–sea interaction processes that are limited to the near-surface layers.