Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 974-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Probability Of Precipitation ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Do So

Abstract Weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and meteorologists have information about weather forecast uncertainty that is not readily available to most forecast users. Yet effectively communicating forecast uncertainty to nonmeteorologists remains challenging. Improving forecast uncertainty communication requires research-based knowledge that can inform decisions on what uncertainty information to communicate, when, and how to do so. To help build such knowledge, this article explores the public’s perspectives on everyday weather forecast uncertainty and uncertainty information using results from a nationwide survey. By contributing to the fundamental understanding of laypeople’s views on forecast uncertainty, the findings can inform both uncertainty communication and related research. The article uses empirical data from a nationwide survey of the U.S. public to investigate beliefs commonly held among meteorologists and to explore new topics. The results show that when given a deterministic temperature forecast, most respondents expected the temperature to fall within a range around the predicted value. In other words, most people inferred uncertainty into the deterministic forecast. People’s preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts were examined in two situations; in both, a significant majority of respondents liked weather forecasts that expressed uncertainty, and many preferred such forecasts to single-valued forecasts. The article also discusses people’s confidence in different types of forecasts, their interpretations of the probability of precipitation forecasts, and their preferences for how forecast uncertainty is conveyed. Further empirical research is needed to study the article’s findings in other contexts and to continue exploring perception, interpretation, communication, and use of weather forecast uncertainty.

scholarly journals Exploring Variations in People’s Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 177-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Leisure Activities ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Perceived Importance

Abstract Past research has shown that individuals vary in their attitudes and behaviors regarding weather forecast information. To deepen knowledge about these variations, this article explores 1) patterns in people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of everyday weather forecasts; and 2) relationships among people’s sources, uses, and perceptions of forecasts, their personal characteristics, and their experiences with weather and weather forecasts. It does so by performing factor and regression analysis on data from a nationwide survey of the U.S. public, combined with other data. Forecast uses factored into planning for leisure activities and for work/school-related activities, while knowing what the weather will be like and planning how to dress remained separate. Forecast parameters factored into importance of precipitation parameters and of temperature-related parameters, suggesting that these represent conceptually different constructs. Regression analysis showed that the primary drivers for how often people obtain forecasts are what they use forecasts for and their perceived importance of and confidence in forecast information. People’s forecast uses are explained in large part by their frequency of obtaining forecasts and their perceived importance of temperature-related and precipitation forecast information. This suggests that that individuals’ frequency of obtaining forecasts, forecast use, and importance of forecast parameters are closely interrelated. Sociodemographic characteristics and, to a lesser extent, weather-related experience also influence some aspects of people’s forecast sources, uses, and perceptions. These findings continue to build understanding of variations among weather forecast users, which can help weather information providers improve communication of forecasts to better meet users’ needs.

scholarly journals Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

2018 ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Ernst ◽  
Daphne LaDue ◽  
Alan Gerard
Keyword(s):  
Critical Incident ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Relational Trust ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The Impact

For Emergency Managers (EMs), preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, well-communicated National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. As part of their constant work to improve these forecasts, the NWS has recently begun to develop impact-based products that share forecast uncertainty information with EMs, including the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) tool. However, there is a lack of research investigating what forecast uncertainty information EMs understand, and what information needs exist in the current communication paradigm. This study used the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes from incidents involving weather forecast information that went well, or not so well, from the perspective of the EMs responding to them. In total, 11 EMs from a variety of locales east of the Rockies were interviewed—six of whom were county-level, two city, two state, and one from a school district. We found that EMs sought increased forecast detail as a potential event approached in time and built relational trust in the NWS through repeated interactions. EMs had difficulty preparing for events when they did not have details of the expected impacts, or the likelihood of those impacts, for their regions. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in an uncertainty-friendly frame and could be responsive to the impact details and increased forecaster relations proposed with the PHI tool.

Knowing Their Place: The Blue Hill Observatory and the Value of Local Knowledge in an Era of Synoptic Weather Forecasting, 1884–1894

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Bergman
Keyword(s):  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Meteorological Observatory ◽  
History Of ◽  
The U.S

ArgumentThe history of meteorology has focused a great deal on the “scaling up” of knowledge infrastructures through the development of national and global observation networks. This article argues that such efforts to scale up were paralleled by efforts to define a place for local knowledge. By examining efforts of the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, near Boston, Massachusetts, to issuelocalweather forecasts that competed with the centralized forecasts of the U.S. Signal Service, this article finds that Blue Hill, as a user of the Signal Service's observation network, developed a new understanding of local knowledge by combining local observations of the weather with the synoptic maps afforded by the nationwide telegraph network of the U.S. Signal Service. Blue Hill used these forecasts not only as a service, but also as evidence of the superiority of its model of local forecasting over the Signal Service's model, and in the process opened up larger questions about the value of a weather forecast and the value of different kinds of knowledge in meteorology.

Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information

2009 ◽  
Vol 90 (11) ◽  
pp. 1614-1618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Betty Hearn Morrow ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Information

scholarly journals How Do Laypeople Evaluate the Degree of Certainty in a Weather Report? A Case Study of the Use of the Web Service yr.no

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders D. Sivle ◽  
Stein Dankert Kolstø ◽  
Pål J. Kirkeby Hansen ◽  
Jørn Kristiansen
Keyword(s):  
Web Service ◽  
Previous Knowledge ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Semistructured Interviews ◽  
Multimodal Information ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Abstract Many people depend on and use weather forecasts to plan their schedules. In so doing, ordinary people with no expertise in meteorology are frequently called upon to interpret uncertainty with respect to weather forecasts. With this in mind, this study addresses two main questions: 1) How do laypeople interpret online weather reports with respect to their degree of certainty and how is previous knowledge drawn upon in this interpretation? and 2) How do laypeople integrate information in weather reports to determine their degree of certainty? This qualitative study is based on semistructured interviews with 21 Norwegians. The results show the following: (a) only a portion of uncertainty information was used, (b) symbols were sometimes ascribed different meanings than intended, and (c) interpretations were affected by local experiences with wind direction and forecast quality. The informants’ prior knowledge was found to prevail in the event of a conflict with forecast information, and an expected range of uncertainty was often inferred into single-valued forecasts. Additionally, (d) interpretations were affected by the integration of information used to predict the time and location of precipitation. Informants typically interpreted the degree of certainty differently (more or less uncertain) than was intended. Clearer presentation of uncertainty information, a clear intent of all nuances in information, a thorough use of multimodal information, and consideration of users’ needs can help improve communication of forecast uncertainty. The diversity of user approaches makes forecast uncertainty more difficult to communicate and provides possible explanations for why communicating uncertainty is challenging.

scholarly journals On the Impact and Benefits of AMDAR Observations in Operational Forecasting—Part I: A Review of the Impact of Automated Aircraft Wind and Temperature Reports

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 585-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Alvin Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Commercial Aircraft ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Fuel Savings ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper reviews the impact of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) observations on operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts at both regional and global scales that support national and local weather forecast offices across the globe. Over the past three decades, data collected from commercial aircraft have helped reduce flight-level wind and temperature forecast errors by nearly 50%. Improvements are largest in 3–48-h forecasts and in regions where the automated reports 1) are most numerous, 2) cover a broad area, and 3) are available at multiple levels (e.g., made during aircraft ascent and descent). Improvements in weather forecasts due to these data have already had major impacts on a variety of aspects of airline operations, ranging from fuel savings from improved wind and temperature forecasts used in flight planning to passenger comfort and safety due to better awareness of en route and near-terminal weather hazards. Aircraft wind and temperature observations now constitute the third most important dataset for global NWP and, in areas of ample reports, have become the single most important dataset for use in shorter-term, regional NWP applications. Automated aircraft reports provide the most cost-effective data source for improving NWP, being more than 5 times more cost effective than any other major-impact observing system. They also present an economical alternative for obtaining tropospheric profiles both in areas of diminishing conventional observation and as a supplement to existing datasets, both in time and space. An evaluation of moisture observations becoming available from an increasing number of AMDAR-equipped aircraft will be presented in Part II of this paper, including examples of the use of the full array of AMDAR observations in a variety of forecasting situations.

THE SEC PREEMPTS THE ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES BOARD IN 1965: THE CLASSIFICATION OF THE DEFERRED TAX CREDIT RELATING TO INSTALLMENT SALES

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen A. Zeff
Keyword(s):  
Securities And Exchange Commission ◽  
Accounting Practice ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
Accounting Principles ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Deferred Tax ◽  
Accounting Procedure ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Do So

In 1959, the Accounting Principles Board (APB) replaced the Committee on Accounting Procedure because the latter was unable to deal forthrightly with a series of important issues. But during the APB's first half-dozen years, its record of achievement was no more impressive than its predecessor's. The chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Manuel F. Cohen, criticized the APB's slow pace and unwillingness to tackle difficult issues. This article discusses the circumstances attending the SEC's issuance of an Accounting Series Release in late 1965 to demonstrate forcefully to the APB that, when it is unable to carry out its responsibility to “narrow the areas of difference” in accounting practice, the SEC is prepared to step in and do so itself. In this sense, the article deals with the tensions between the private and public sectors in the establishment of accounting principles in the U.S. during the mid-1960s. The article makes extensive use of primary resource materials in the author's personal archive, which have not been used previously in published work.

Regulating for Content on the Internet: Meeting Cultural and Social Objectives for Broadband

2001 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard Goggin ◽  
Catherine Griff
Keyword(s):  
The Internet ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Media Convergence ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Future ◽  
Broadcasting Regulation ◽  
Productivity Commission ◽  
Specific Regulation ◽  
Film And Video ◽  
Do So

Much of the present debate about content on the internet revolves around how to control the distribution of different sorts of harmful or undesirable material. Yet there are considerable issues about whether sufficient sorts of desired cultural content will be available, such as ‘national’, ‘Australian’ content. In traditional broadcasting, regulation has been devised to encourage or mandate different types of content, where it is believed that the market will not do so by itself. At present, such regulatory arrangements are under threat in television, as the Productivity Commission Broadcasting Inquiry final report has noted. But what of the future for certain types of content on the internet? Do we need specific regulation and policy to promote the availability of content on the internet? Or is such a project simply irrelevant in the context of gradual but inexorable media convergence? Is regulating for content just as quixotic and fraught with peril as regulating of content from a censorship perspective often appears to be? In this article, we consider the case of Australian content for broadband technologies, especially in relation to film and video, and make some preliminary observations on the promotion and regulation of internet content.

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