scholarly journals Preliminary Development and Evaluation of Lightning Jump Algorithms for the Real-Time Detection of Severe Weather

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (12) ◽  
pp. 2543-2563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Schultz ◽  
Walter A. Petersen ◽  
Lawrence D. Carey
Keyword(s):  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Tennessee Valley ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Jump Algorithm

Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed “lightning jumps.” Herein, the authors document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms from the Tennessee Valley; Washington, D.C.; Dallas, Texas; and Houston, Texas, were examined in this study. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 69 thunderstorms fall into the category of nonsevere and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated nonsevere thunderstorms, an average, peak, 1-min flash rate of 10 flashes per minute was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study, including a mesoscale convective system, mesoscale convective vortex, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 nonsevere, 38 severe) were from the Tennessee Valley and Washington, D.C., and these 85 thunderstorms tested six lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2σ, 3σ, Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2σ lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false-alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke skill score (0.75). These statistics exceed current NWS warning statistics with this dataset; however, this algorithm needs further testing because there is a large difference in sample sizes. A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 min. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

scholarly journals A Total Lightning Trending Algorithm to Identify Severe Thunderstorms

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick N. Gatlin ◽  
Steven J. Goodman
Keyword(s):  
Severe Weather ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Severe Thunderstorms ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Total Lightning ◽  
Jump Algorithm ◽  
Early Indication ◽  
Critical Success Index

Abstract An algorithm that provides an early indication of impending severe weather from observed trends in thunderstorm total lightning flash rates has been developed. The algorithm framework has been tested on 20 thunderstorms, including 1 nonsevere storm, which occurred over the course of six separate days during the spring months of 2002 and 2003. The identified surges in lightning rate (or jumps) are compared against 110 documented severe weather events produced by these thunderstorms as they moved across portions of northern Alabama and southern Tennessee. Lightning jumps precede 90% of these severe weather events, with as much as a 27-min advance notification of impending severe weather on the ground. However, 37% of lightning jumps are not followed by severe weather reports. Various configurations of the algorithm are tested, and the highest critical success index attained is 0.49. Results suggest that this lightning jump algorithm may be a useful operational diagnostic tool for severe thunderstorm potential.

scholarly journals Derecho Evolving from a Mesocyclone—A Study of 11 August 2017 Severe Weather Outbreak in Poland: Event Analysis and High-Resolution Simulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (6) ◽  
pp. 2283-2306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
Natalia Pilguj ◽  
Juliusz Orlikowski ◽  
Artur Surowiecki ◽  
Szymon Walczakiewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Resolution Simulation

Abstract This study documents atmospheric conditions, development, and evolution of a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 11 August 2017 in Poland. The emphasis is on analyzing system morphology and highlighting the importance of a mesovortex in producing the most significant wind damages. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) had a remarkable intensity and was one of the most impactful convective storms in the history of Poland. It destroyed and partially damaged 79 700 ha of forest (9.8 million m3 of wood), 6 people lost their lives, and 58 were injured. The MCS developed in an environment of high 0–3-km wind shear (20–25 m s−1), strong 0–3-km storm relative helicity (200–600 m2 s−2), moderate most-unstable convective available potential energy (1000–2500 J kg−1), and high precipitable water (40–46 mm). Within the support of a midtropospheric jet, the MCS moved northeast with a simultaneous northeastward inflow of warm and very moist air, which contributed to strong downdrafts. A mesocyclone embedded in the convective line induced the rear inflow jet (RIJ) to descend and develop a bow echo. In the mature stage, a supercell evolved into a bookend vortex and later into a mesoscale convective vortex. Swaths of the most significant wind damage followed the aforementioned vortex features. A high-resolution simulation performed with initial conditions derived from GFS and ECMWF global models predicted the possibility of a linear MCS with widespread damaging wind gusts and embedded supercells. Simulations highlighted the importance of cloud cover in the preconvective environment, which influenced the placement and propagation of the resulting MCS.

scholarly journals Assimilation of GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flash Extent Density Data in GSI EnKF for the Analysis and Short-Term Forecast of a Mesoscale Convective System

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 2111-2133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Kong ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Alexandre O. Fierro ◽  
Youngsun Jung ◽  
Chengsi Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pixel Resolution ◽  
Cross Covariance ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Total Lightning

Abstract The recently launched Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite “R-series” (GOES-R) satellites carry the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that measures from space the total lightning rate in convective storms at high spatial and temporal frequencies. This study assimilates, for the first time, real GLM total lightning data in an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) framework. The lightning flash extent density (FED) products at 10-km pixel resolution are assimilated. The capabilities to assimilate GLM FED data are first implemented into the GSI-based EnKF data assimilation (DA) system and tested with a mesoscale convective system (MCS). FED observation operators based on graupel mass or graupel volume are used. The operators are first tuned through sensitivity experiments to determine an optimal multiplying factor to the operator, before being used in FED DA experiments FEDM and FEDV that use the graupel-mass or graupel-volume-based operator, respectively. Their results are compared to a control experiment (CTRL) that does not assimilate any FED data. Overall, both DA experiments outperform CTRL in terms of the analyses and short-term forecasts of FED and composite/3D reflectivity. The assimilation of FED is primarily effective in regions of deep moist convection, which helps improve short-term forecasts of convective threats, including heavy precipitation and lightning. Direct adjustments to graupel mass via observation operator as well as adjustments to other model state variables through flow-dependent ensemble cross covariance within EnKF are shown to work together to generate model-consistent analyses and overall improved forecasts.

scholarly journals SAETTA: high-resolution 3-D mapping of the total lightning activity in the Mediterranean Basin over Corsica, with a focus on a mesoscale convective system event

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 5765-5790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Coquillat ◽  
Eric Defer ◽  
Pierre de Guibert ◽  
Dominique Lambert ◽  
Jean-Pierre Pinty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

Abstract. Deployed on the mountainous island of Corsica for thunderstorm monitoring purposes in the Mediterranean Basin, SAETTA is a network of 12 LMA (Lightning Mapping Array, designed by New Mexico Tech, USA) stations that allows the 3-D mapping of very high-frequency (VHF) radiation emitted by cloud discharges in the 60–66 MHz band. It works at high temporal (∼40 ns in each 80 µs time window) and spatial (tens of meters at best) resolution within a range of about 350 km. Originally deployed in May 2014, SAETTA was commissioned during the summer and autumn seasons and has now been permanently operational since April 2016 until at least the end of 2020. We first evaluate the performances of SAETTA through the radial, azimuthal, and altitude errors of VHF source localization with the theoretical model of Thomas et al. (2004). We also compute on a 240 km × 240 km domain the minimum altitude at which a VHF source can be detected by at least six stations by taking into account the masking effect of the relief. We then report the 3-year observations on the same domain in terms of number of lightning days per square kilometer (i.e., total number of days during which lightning has been detected in a given 1 km square pixel) and in terms of lightning days integrated across the domain. The lightning activity is first maximum in June because of daytime convection driven by solar energy input, but concentrates on a specific hot spot in July just above the intersection of the three main valleys. This hot spot is probably due to the low-level convergence of moist air fluxes from sea breezes channeled by the three valleys. Lightning activity increases again in September due to numerous small thunderstorms above the sea and to some high-precipitation events. Finally we report lightning observations of unusual high-altitude discharges associated with the mesoscale convective system of 8 June 2015. Most of them are small discharges on top of an intense convective core during convective surges. They are considered in the flash classification of Thomas et al. (2003) to be small–isolated and short–isolated flashes. The other high-altitude discharges, much less numerous, are long-range flashes that develop through the stratiform region and suddenly undergo upward propagations towards an uppermost thin layer of charge. This latter observation is apparently consistent with the recent conceptual model of Dye and Bansemer (2019) that explains such an upper-level layer of charge in the stratiform region by the development of a non-riming ice collisional charging in a mesoscale updraft.

Relationship of convection initiation and subsequent storm strength to ensemble simulated environmental conditions during IOP3b of VORTEX Southeast 2017

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
STANLEY B. TRIER ◽  
GLEN S. ROMINE ◽  
DAVID A. AHIJEVYCH ◽  
RYAN A. SOBASH ◽  
MANDA B. CHASTEEN
Keyword(s):  
Cold Front ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Adiabatic Cooling ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convection Initiation ◽  
Relationship Of

AbstractA fifty-member convection allowing ensemble was used to examine environmental factors influencing afternoon convection initiation (CI) and subsequent severe weather on 5 April 2017 during Intensive Observing Period (IOP) 3b of the Verification of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment in the Southeast (VORTEX-SE). This case produced several weak tornadoes (rated EF1 or less), and numerous reports of significant hail (diameter ≥ 2 inches), ahead of an eastward-moving surface cold front over eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee. Both observed and simulated CI was facilitated by mesoscale lower-tropospheric ascent maximized several tens of km ahead of the cold-frontal position, and the simulated mesoscale ascent was linked to surface frontogenesis in the ensemble mean. Simulated maximum 2-5-km AGL updraft helicity (UHmax) was used as a proxy for severe-weather producing mesocyclones, and considerable variability in UHmax occurred among the ensemble members. Ensemble members with UHmax > 100 m2 s-2 had stronger mesoscale ascent than in members with UHmax < 75 m2 s-2, which facilitated more timely CI by producing greater adiabatic cooling and moisture increases above the PBL. After CI, storms in the larger UHmax members moved northeastward toward a mesoscale region with larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) than in smaller UHmax members. The CAPE differences among members was influenced by differences in location of an antecedent mesoscale convective system, which had a thermodynamically stabilizing influence on the environment toward which storms were moving. Despite providing good overall guidance, the model ensemble overpredicted severe weather likelihoods in northeastern Alabama, where comparisons with VORTEX-SE soundings revealed a positive CAPE bias.

scholarly journals Preliminary results from the total lightning detector-cum-mini weather station installed at the Calcutta University

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subrata Kumar Midya ◽  
Sujay Pal ◽  
Reetambhara Dutta ◽  
Prabir Kumar Gole ◽  
Upal Saha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Station ◽  
Withdrawal Time ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Total Lightning

Abstract. We report preliminary results derived from the total lightning detector-cum-mini weather station installed at the Calcutta University during 2016. This detector is a part of Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) operated globally for ground-based monitoring of total lightning activity and forecasting of localized storm alert and severe weather conditions. This set up provides improved measurement of in-cloud (IC) lightning as well as cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in addition to daily weather data. Severe weather such as thunder squall, Nor'wester, hailstorm, cyclone over the Gangetic West Bengal can be studied in details based on total lightning activity along with other atmospheric and meteorological research using the weather data. Here we present some initial results from the analysis of total lightning measurements during the recent Nor'wester events occurred in and around Kolkata. We also present variation of wet component of atmospheric refractivity index during the monsoon season which can be used to declare the onset and withdrawal time of monsoon over Gangetic West Bengal.

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