Inference for epidemic models with time varying infection rates: tracking the dynamics of oak processionary moth in the UK

Invasive pests pose a great threat to forest, woodland and urban tree ecosystems. The oak processionary moth (OPM) is a destructive pest of oak trees, first reported in the UK in 2006. Despite great efforts to contain the outbreak within the original infested area of South-East England, OPM continues to spread. Here we analyse data of the numbers of OPM nests removed each year from two parks in London between 2013 and 2020. Using a state-of-the-art Bayesian inference scheme we estimate the parameters for a stochastic compartmental SIR (susceptible, infested, removed) model with a time varying infestation rate to describe the spread of OPM. We find that the infestation rate and subsequent basic reproduction number have remained constant since 2013 (with R_0 between one and two). This shows further controls must be taken to reduce R_0 below one and stop the advance of OPM into other areas of England. Our findings demonstrate the applicability of the SIR model to describing OPM spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data.spread and show that further controls are needed to reduce the infestation rate. The proposed statistical methodology is a powerful tool to explore the nature of a time varying infestation rate, applicable to other partially observed time series epidemic data.

Evidences of horizontal urban heat advection in London using 6 years of data from a citizen weather station network

Recent advances in citizen weather station (CWS) networks, with data accessible via crowd-sourcing, provide relevant climatic information to urban scientists and decision makers. In particular, CWS can provide long-term measurements of urban heat and valuable information on spatio-temporal heterogeneity related to horizontal heat advection. In this study, we make the first compilation of a quasi-climatologic dataset covering 6 years (2015–2020) of hourly near-surface air temperature measurements obtained via 1560 suitable CWS in a domain covering south-east England and Greater London. We investigated the spatio- temporal distribution of urban heat and the influences of local environments on climate, captured by CWS through the scope of Local Climate Zones (LCZ) – a land-use land-cover classification specifically designed for urban climate studies. We further calculate, for the first time, the amount of advected heat captured by CWS located in Greater London and the wider south east England region. We find that London is on average warmer by ∼1.0 ◦C to ∼2.0 ◦C than the rest of south-east England. Characteristics of the southern coastal climate are also captured in the analysis. We find that on average, urban heat advection (UHA) contributes to 0.22 ◦C of the total urban heat in Greater London. Certain areas, mostly in the centre of London are deprived of urban heat through advection since heat is transferred more to downwind suburban areas. UHA can positively contribute to urban heat by up to ∼2.0 ◦C on average and negatively by down to ∼-1.0 ◦C. Our results also show an important degree of inter- and intra-LCZ variability in UHA, calling for more research in the future. Nevertheless, we already find that UHA can impact green areas and reduce their cooling benefit. Such outcomes show the added value of CWS for future urban design.

Disambiguating language attitudes held towards sociodemographic groups and geographic areas in South East England

Using a novel, digitized method, this paper investigates the language attitudes of 18- to 33-year-olds in South East England. More broadly, this paper demonstrates that disambiguating the language attitudes held towards sociodemographic groups and geographic areas is paramount to understanding the configuration of language attitudes in an area, particularly for areas with high cultural and linguistic heterogeneity. A total of 194 respondents evaluated the speech of 102 other south-eastern speakers. Results reveal an imperfect mapping between language attitudes held towards geographic areas and speakers from these areas. Although East London and Essex are the most negatively evaluated areas, speakers’ demographic and identity data is the primary factor conditioning language attitudes. Across South East England, working-class and/or ethnic minority speakers, as well as those who identify their accent in geographically marked terms, are evaluated most negatively, which is compounded if they are from East London or Essex.

Book review of The Wandering Herd: The Medieval Cattle Economy of South East England c. 450-1450 by Andrew Margetts

Book detailsMargetts, A. The Wandering Herd: The Medieval Cattle Economy of South East England c. 450-1450. Windgather Press, 2021. 272 pages, ISBN 978-1-91118-879-7

Breaking Down the Barriers: Exploring the Role of Collaboration in the Forestry Sector of South East England

The forestry supply chain in the southeast of England is characterized by a diverse set of independent businesses and a sector strongly driven by personal connections and trust. Yet, the opportunity exists to increase the amount of wood product through bringing currently unmanaged woodlands to the market, a result that should have environmental as well as economic benefits. Previous research has indicated that agents play a key linking role between woodland owners and contractors, offering services ranging from consultancy support, grant aid access, and the writing of management plans to the scheduling and delivery of thinning and felling activity, with a unique and important position in the sector in terms of facilitating change. This study, through interviews with 18 woodland agents, was designed to explore collaboration across the sector. The results suggest that current levels of collaboration are low and use predominantly horizontal mechanisms, focusing on information sharing rather than joint operation. This is despite a positive market opportunity and a growth aspiration, as well as an enthusiasm for increased collaboration that is particularly prevalent in smaller businesses. Four main features of the sector are limiting the amount of collaboration: a traditional handshake culture strongly embedded within rural life; the construct, mechanisms, and frameworks of the sector; the value set of those operating at this critical juncture of supply and demand; and the lack of positive examples of collaboration. Higher levels of collaboration were seen by woodland agents to be positive for increasing the sustainable and productive management of woodlands but achieving this will be challenging to established practice.

Risk, demand, capacity and outcomes in adult specialist eating disorder services in South-East of England before and since COVID-19

Aims and method This is a longitudinal cohort study describing the demand, capacity and outcomes of adult specialist eating disorder in-patient services covering a population of 3.5 million in a South-East England provider collaborative before and since the COVID-19 pandemic, between July 2018 and March 2021. Results There were 351 referrals for admission; 97% were female, 95% had a diagnosis of anorexia nervosa and 19% had a body mass index (BMI) <13. Referrals have increased by 21% since the start of pandemic, coinciding with reduced capacity. Waiting times have increased from 33 to 46 days. There were significant differences in outcomes between providers. A novel, integrated enhanced cognitive behaviour theapy treatment model showed a 25% reduction in length of stay and improved BMI on discharge (50% v. 16% BMI >19), compared with traditional eclectic in-patient treatment. Clinical implications Integrated enhanced cognitive behaviour theapy reduced length of stay and improved outcomes, and can offer more effective use of healthcare resources.

Oysteropolis: Animals in coastal gentrification

Gentrification scholars have increasingly acknowledged the importance of socio-nature in encouraging the revaluation of place. Yet relatively little has been said about the role that non-human animals play in changing the material, sensory and affective qualities of place and the ways that they provoke capital investment. In this paper, we provide a corrective by exploring the role of the oyster in the ongoing gentrification of a coastal community (Whitstable in Kent, South East England). The complex natural and social history of oysters in Whitstable shows that how animal agency has contributed to processes of gentrification. Oysters are visceral objects whose affective qualities create hierarchies of taste and distaste through processes of desire and disgust. This animal is a marker of class change that positions the ‘local’ within wider circuits of consumption. Further, oysters are labouring bodies that reconstitute the coastal ecosystem on which the town depends. The arguments illustrate that non-human animals can be – economically, culturally and ecologically – vital and lively components within the dynamic material processes that support gentrification.

853 Post-BCG Surveillance – General Anesthetic Rigid Cystoscopy in Intermediate/High-Risk Bladder Cancer. A Quality Improvement Project Done at A District General Hospital in South-East England

Aim High/ intermediate risk bladder cancer is treated with BCG immunotherapy and cystoscopy surveillance is the standard of care. Performing a General Anesthetic Rigid Cystoscopy (GARC) enables resection or sampling of suspicious lesions. We aim to evaluate its benefits while the alternative is Local Anesthetic Flexible Cystoscopy (LAFC). Method A retrospective analysis of patients that underwent rigid cystoscopy under GA over 2 years from January 2018-December 2019, post induction & maintenance cycles of BCG following primary TURBT. Overall inference (cystoscopy outcomes) was based on intra-operative findings, BCG cycle, suspicious lesions, recurrence/disease progression based on histology. Results A total of 53 patients had 114 procedures. Mean age of 72.29±8.98. 14 inpatient admissions due to GA/procedural complications or social reasons. 58.2% of patients primarily had G3T1 disease, 22.6% G2, 14.3% G1 & 4.9% had primary CIS. T1 & Ta disease were 42% & 43% respectively. GA cystoscopy showed normal findings in 57.1%, 33.33% suspicious lesions & 9.6% visible recurrence. 88% suspicious lesions upon biopsy showed benign findings on histology and only 12% malignant. 24% of lesions thought to be recurrence showed benign findings on histology, 56% as G3T1 disease and 20% as G3Ta disease. No one had stage progression and 3 patients had grade progression. Sub-analysis of various stages and grades showed an average of about 10% malignant findings only. Conclusions LAFC as first line for post-BCG surveillance can be recommended which aim to prevent GA complications, extra admissions, overall cost reduction in management of bladder cancers and GARC can be reserved for second line

The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic and Weather Conditions on Water Environment, a Case Study in Istanbul and London/South-east England

The Covid-19 Pandemic affects not only populations around the world but also the environment and natural resources. Lockdowns and restricted new lifestyles have had wide ranging impacts on the environment (e.g., on air quality in cities). Although hygiene and disinfection procedures and precautions are effective ways to protect people from Covid-19, they have important consequences for water usage and resources especially given the increasing impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns, water use and resources. Climate change and public health issues may compound one another and so we used a DPSIR Framework to scope the main factors that may interact to affect water use and resources (in the form of reservoirs) using evidence from Istanbul, Turkey with some discussion of the comparative situation in the UK and elsewhere. We modified initial views on the framework to account for the regional, city and community level experiences. We noted water consumption in Istanbul has been increasing over the last two decades (except, it appears, in times of very low rainfall/drought); that there were increases in water consumption in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic; and, despite some increase in rainfall, water levels in reservoirs appeared to decrease during lockdowns (for a range of reasons). We also noted, through a new simple way of visualising the data, that a low resource capacity might be recurring every 6 or 7 years in Istanbul. We made no attempt in this paper to quantify the relative contribution that climate change, population growth etc are making to water consumption and reservoir levels as we were focused here on scoping those social, environmental and economic factors that appear to play a role in potential water stress and on developing a DPSIR Framework that could aid both subsequent quantitative studies and the development of policy and adaptive management options for Istanbul and other large complex conurbations (such as London and south-east England). If there are periodic water resource issues and temperatures rise as expected in climate projections with an accompanying increase in the duration of hot spells the subsequent additional stress on water systems might make managing future public health emergencies, such as a pandemic, even more difficult.