scholarly journals Quasigeostrophic Transient Wave Activity Flux: Updated Climatology and Its Role in Polar Vortex Anomalies

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (10) ◽  
pp. 3164-3189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mototaka Nakamura ◽  
Minoru Kadota ◽  
Shozo Yamane
Keyword(s):  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Vertical Flux ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Transient Wave ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Wave Flux ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

Abstract The climatology of transient wave activity flux defined by Plumb has been calculated for each calendar month, for high-frequency (HF) and low-frequency (LF) waves, using the NCAR–NCEP reanalyses for both hemispheres. Wave activity flux of both HF and LF waves shows upward propagation of waves from the lower troposphere into the upper troposphere, then into the lower stratosphere during the summer and at least up to the midstratosphere during other seasons. While the upward flux emanating from the lower troposphere is particularly large in the two storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), it is large in most of the extratropics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The HF waves radiate equatorward most noticeably in the upper troposphere, whereas the LF waves do not show visible signs of equatorward radiation. The total horizontal flux is generally dominated by the advective flux that represents the eddy enstrophy advection by the mean flow and appears predominantly pseudoeastward. Divergence of the wave activity flux exhibits discernible large-scale characteristics at the lowest level in both hemispheres and in the upper troposphere in the NH. The divergence field indicates acceleration of the pseudoeastward mean flow near the surface in both hemispheres. In the NH, acceleration and deceleration, respectively, of the pseudoeastward mean flow in the storm tracks and downstream of the storm tracks in the upper troposphere are found. Seasonal variations in the wave flux are substantial in the NH but relatively minor in the SH. In the NH, the wave flux fields exhibit generally larger values during the cold months than during warm months. Also, the latitudes at which large wave flux values are seen are higher during warm months, as the jets and storm tracks shift northward from the winter to the summer. Anomalously large vertical flux of both HF and LF wave activity propagating up from the lower troposphere throughout the troposphere and stratosphere in the northern flank of the North Atlantic storm track is found to precede anomalous deceleration in the NH winter polar vortex, while anomalously small vertical flux in the same area precedes anomalous acceleration of the vortex. The accompanying horizontal flux anomalies tend to counteract the action of the anomalous vertical flux. These cases are found to be dissipation of strong anomalies in the polar vortex. The anomalous flux divergence does not prove the active role of the waves in the anomalous change in the polar vortex, however. No signs of the wave flux originating from specific areas preceding anomalous change in the polar vortex are found for the SH.

scholarly journals Why Are Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Sudden (and Intermittent)?

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 943-964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noboru Nakamura ◽  
Jonathan Falk ◽  
Sandro W. Lubis
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Finite Amplitude ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Threshold Behavior ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Transient Wave ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Stratospheric Sudden Warmings ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

Abstract This paper examines the role of wave–mean flow interaction in the onset and suddenness of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). Evidence is presented that SSWs are, on average, a threshold behavior of finite-amplitude Rossby waves arising from the competition between an increasing wave activity A and a decreasing zonal-mean zonal wind u¯. The competition puts a limit to the wave activity flux that a stationary Rossby wave can transmit upward. A rapid, spontaneous vortex breakdown occurs once the upwelling wave activity flux reaches the limit, or equivalently, once u¯ drops below a certain fraction of uREF, a wave-free, reference-state wind inverted from the zonalized quasigeostrophic potential vorticity. This fraction is 0.5 in theory and about 0.3 in reanalyses. We propose r≡u¯/uREF as a local, instantaneous measure of the proximity to vortex breakdown (i.e., preconditioning). The ratio r generally stays above the threshold during strong-vortex winters until a pronounced final warming, whereas during weak-vortex winters it approaches the threshold early in the season, culminating in a precipitous drop in midwinter as SSWs form. The essence of the threshold behavior is captured by a semiempirical 1D model of SSWs, similar to the “traffic jam” model of Nakamura and Huang for atmospheric blocking. This model predicts salient features of SSWs including rapid vortex breakdown and downward migration of the wave activity/zonal wind anomalies, with analytical expressions for the respective time scales. The model’s response to a variety of transient wave forcing and damping is discussed.

Stratospheric sudden warming as a threshold behavior of Rossby waves

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noboru Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Finite Amplitude ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Reference State ◽  
Threshold Behavior ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Transient Wave ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

<p>We present evidence that stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are, on average, a threshold behavior of finite-amplitude Rossby waves arising from wave-mean flow interaction. Competition between an increasing wave activity and a decreasing zonal-mean zonal wind sets a limit to the upward wave activity flux of a stationary Rossby wave.  A rapid, spontaneous vortex breakdown occurs once the upwelling wave activity flux reaches the limit, or equivalently, once the zonal-mean zonal wind drops below a certain fraction of the wave-free, reference-state wind obtained from the zonalized quasigeostrophic potential vorticity.  This threshold faction is 0.5 in theory and about 0.3 in reanalyses.  We use the ratio of the zonal-mean zonal wind to the reference-state wind as a local, instantaneous measure of the proximity to vortex breakdown, i.e. preconditioning.  The ratio generally stays above the threshold during strong-vortex winters until a pronounced final warming, whereas during weak-vortex winters it approaches the threshold early in the season, culminating in a precipitous drop in midwinter as SSWs form. The essence of the threshold behavior is captured by a semiempirical 1D model of SSWs, analogous to the “traffic jam” model of Nakamura and Huang for atmospheric blocking. This model predicts salient features of SSWs including rapid vortex breakdown and downward migration of the wave activity/zonal wind anomalies, with analytical expressions for the respective timescales. Model’s response to a variety of transient wave forcing and damping is discussed.</p><p> </p><p> </p><div> </div><p> </p>

scholarly journals A Formulation of Unified Three-Dimensional Wave Activity Flux of Inertia–Gravity Waves and Rossby Waves

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 1603-1615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takenari Kinoshita ◽  
Kaoru Sato
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Wave Activity Flux ◽  
Inertia Gravity Waves ◽  
Dimensional Wave

Abstract A companion paper formulates the three-dimensional wave activity flux (3D-flux-M) whose divergence corresponds to the wave forcing on the primitive equations. However, unlike the two-dimensional wave activity flux, 3D-flux-M does not accurately describe the magnitude and direction of wave propagation. In this study, the authors formulate a modification of 3D-flux-M (3D-flux-W) to describe this propagation using small-amplitude theory for a slowly varying time-mean flow. A unified dispersion relation for inertia–gravity waves and Rossby waves is also derived and used to relate 3D-flux-W to the group velocity. It is shown that 3D-flux-W and the modified wave activity density agree with those for inertia–gravity waves under the constant Coriolis parameter assumption and those for Rossby waves under the small Rossby number assumption. To compare 3D-flux-M with 3D-flux-W, an analysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data is performed focusing on wave disturbances in the storm tracks during April. While the divergence of 3D-flux-M is in good agreement with the meridional component of the 3D residual mean flow associated with disturbances, the 3D-flux-W divergence shows slight differences in the upstream and downstream regions of the storm tracks. Further, the 3D-flux-W magnitude and direction are in good agreement with those derived by R. A. Plumb, who describes Rossby wave propagation. However, 3D-flux-M is different from Plumb’s flux in the vicinity of the storm tracks. These results suggest that different fluxes (both 3D-flux-W and 3D-flux-M) are needed to describe wave propagation and wave–mean flow interaction in the 3D formulation.

scholarly journals Are Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Preceded by Anomalous Tropospheric Wave Activity?

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (21) ◽  
pp. 7173-7189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro de la Cámara ◽  
Thomas Birner ◽  
John R. Albers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Wave Event ◽  
Dynamical Nature ◽  
The Waves ◽  
Robust Evidence

Abstract A combination of 240 years of output from a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model and a twentieth-century reanalysis product is used to investigate to what extent sudden stratospheric warmings are preceded by anomalous tropospheric wave activity. To this end we study the fate of lower tropospheric wave events (LTWEs) and their interaction with the stratospheric mean flow. These LTWEs are contrasted with sudden stratospheric deceleration events (SSDs), which are similar to sudden stratospheric warmings but place more emphasis on the explosive dynamical nature of such events. Reanalysis and model output provide very similar statistics: Around one-third of the identified SSDs are preceded by wave events in the lower troposphere, while two-thirds of the SSDs are not preceded by a tropospheric wave event. In addition, only 20% of all anomalous tropospheric wave events are followed by an SSD in the stratosphere. This constitutes statistically robust evidence that the anomalous amplification of wave activity in the stratosphere that drives SSDs is not necessarily due to an anomalous amplification of the waves in the source region (i.e., the lower troposphere). The results suggest that the dynamics in the lowermost stratosphere and the vortex geometry are essential, and should be carefully analyzed in the search for precursors of SSDs.

Intraseasonal Periodicity in the Southern Hemisphere Circulation on Regional Spatial Scales

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 865-877 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Brian R. Crow ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Time Structure ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Activity Form

Abstract Wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere exhibits robust periodicity on time scales of ~20–25 days. Previous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the periodicity in hemispheric averages of various eddy quantities. Here the authors explore the signature of the periodicity on regional spatial scales. Intraseasonal periodicity in the Southern Hemisphere circulation derives from out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity that form in association with extratropical wave packets as they propagate to the east. In the upper troposphere, the out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity form not along the path of extratropical wave packets, but in their wake. The out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity give rise to periodicity not only on hemispheric scales, but also on synoptic scales when the circulation is sampled along an eastward path between ~5 and 15 m s−1. It is argued that 1) periodicity in extratropical wave activity derives from two-way interactions between the heat fluxes and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere and 2) the unique longitude–time structure of the periodicity in upper-tropospheric wave activity derives from the contrasting eastward speeds of the source of the periodicity in the lower troposphere (~10 m s−1) and wave packets in the upper troposphere (~25 m s−1).

A Formulation of Three-Dimensional Residual Mean Flow and Wave Activity Flux Applicable to Equatorial Waves

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (9) ◽  
pp. 3427-3438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takenari Kinoshita ◽  
Kaoru Sato
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
3D Structure ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Stokes Drift ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Meridional Cross Section ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

Abstract The large-scale waves that are known to be trapped around the equator are called equatorial waves. The equatorial waves cause mean zonal wind acceleration related to quasi-biennial and semiannual oscillations. The interaction between equatorial waves and the mean wind has been studied by using the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) equations in the meridional cross section. However, to examine the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the interaction, the 3D residual mean flow and wave activity flux for the equatorial waves are needed. The 3D residual mean flow is expressed as the sum of the Eulerian mean flow and Stokes drift. The present study derives a formula that is approximately equal to the 3D Stokes drift for equatorial waves on the equatorial beta plane (EQSD). The 3D wave activity flux for equatorial waves whose divergence corresponds to the wave forcing is also derived using the EQSD. It is shown that the meridionally integrated 3D wave activity flux for equatorial waves is proportional to the group velocity of equatorial waves.

scholarly journals Predictions of the boreal winter stratosphere with the C3S multi-model seasonal forecast system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Portal ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Froila M. Palmeiro ◽  
Javier Garcı́a-Serrano ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Prediction Systems

<p>As a result of the recent progress in the performance of seasonal prediction systems, forecasts of the mid-latitude weather at seasonal time scales are becoming increasingly important for societal decision making, as in risk estimate and management of meteorological extreme events. The predictability of the Northern-Hemisphere winter troposphere, especially in the Euro-Atlantic region, stems from the representation of a number of sources of predictability, notably El Nino Southern Oscillation, the stratospheric polar vortex, Arctic sea-ice extent, Eurasian snow cover. Among these, the stratospheric polar vortex is known to play a paramount role in seasonal forecasts of the winter tropospheric flow.</p><p>Here, we investigate the performance in the stratosphere of five seasonal prediction systems taking part in the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), with a focus on the seasonal forecast skill and variability, and on the assessment of stratospheric processes. We show that dynamical forecasts of the stratosphere initialised at the beginning of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on observed October or November anomalies. Advances in the representation of stratospheric seasonal variability and extremes, i.e. sudden stratospheric warming frequency, are identified with respect to previous generations of climate models running roughly a decade ago. Such results display, however, a large model dependence. Finally, we stress the importance of the relation between the stratospheric wave activity and the stratospheric polar vortex (i.e. the wave—mean-flow interaction), applied both to the variability and to the predictability of the stratospheric mean flow. Indeed, forecasts of the winter stratospheric polar vortex are closely connected to the prediction of November-to-February stratospheric wave activity, in particular in the Eurasian sector.</p>

scholarly journals Formulation of Three-Dimensional Quasi-Residual Mean Flow Balanced with Diabatic Heating Rate and Potential Vorticity Flux

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 851-863
Author(s):  
Takenari Kinoshita ◽  
Kaoru Sato ◽  
Kentaro Ishijima ◽  
Masayuki Takigawa ◽  
Yousuke Yamashita
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Vertical Flow ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Material Transport ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

Abstract Three-dimensional (3D) quasi-residual mean flow is derived to diagnose 3D dynamical material transport associated with stationary planetary waves. The 3D quasi-residual mean vertical flow does not include the vertical flow due to tilting of the potential temperature caused by stationary waves, which is apparent but not seen in the mass-weighted isentropic mean state. Thus, the quasi-residual mean vertical flow is balanced with the term of diabatic heating rate. The 3D quasi-residual mean horizontal flow is balanced with the sum of the forcing due to transient wave activity flux divergence and the forcing associated with fluctuation of the potential vorticity due to stationary waves (defined as the effective Coriolis forcing). The zonal mean of the effective Coriolis forcing corresponds to the divergence of stationary wave activity flux. Thus, the zonal mean of derived 3D quasi-residual mean flow is exactly equal to the traditional residual mean flow. To demonstrate the usefulness of this quasi-residual mean flow, we analyze material transport of atmospheric sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) by using an atmospheric chemistry transport model. Comparison between the derived 3D quasi-residual mean flow and traditional residual mean flow shows that the zonal mean of advection of SF6 associated with the 3D quasi-residual mean flow derived is almost equal to that of the traditional residual mean flow. Next, it is confirmed that the horizontal structure of advection of SF6 associated with the 3D quasi-residual mean flow is balanced with the transport because of the nonlinear, nonconservative effects of disturbances. This relation is similar to the results for traditional residual mean flow in the zonal-mean state.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Wave–Mean Flow Feedbacks and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in a Simple Model Forced by Upward Wave Activity Flux

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (11) ◽  
pp. 4055-4071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremiah P. Sjoberg ◽  
Thomas Birner
Keyword(s):  
Wave Propagation ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Mass Model ◽  
Incoming Wave ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wave Activity Flux

Abstract A classic result of studying stratospheric wave–mean flow interactions presented by Holton and Mass is that, for constant incoming wave forcing (at a notional tropopause), a vacillating stratospheric response may ensue. Simple models, such as the Holton–Mass model, typically prescribe the incoming wave forcing in terms of geopotential perturbation, which is not a proxy for upward wave activity flux. Here, the authors reformulate the Holton–Mass model such that incoming upward wave activity flux is prescribed. The Holton–Mass model contains a positive wave–mean flow feedback whereby wave forcing decelerates the mean flow, allowing enhanced wave propagation, which then further decelerates the mean flow, etc., until the mean flow no longer supports wave propagation. By specifying incoming wave activity flux, this feedback is constrained to the model interior. Bistability—where the zonal wind may exist at one of two distinct steady states for a given incoming wave forcing—is maintained in this reformulated model. The model is perturbed with transient pulses of upward wave activity flux to produce transitions between the two stable states. A minimum of integrated incoming wave activity flux necessary to force these sudden stratospheric warming–like transitions exists for pulses with time scales on the order of 10 days, arising from a wave time scale internal to the model at which forcing produces the strongest mean-flow response. The authors examine how the tropopause affects the internal feedback for this model setup and find that the tropopause inversion layer may potentially provide an important source of wave activity in the lower stratosphere.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document