Causes of the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

2006 ◽  
Vol 87 (10) ◽  
pp. 1325-1334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
William M. Gray
Keyword(s):  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Hurricane Damage ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Central Atlantic

The 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season was one of the most active on record with nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds > 49 ms1) forming during the season. All six major hurricanes formed during August and September, causing this two-month period to be the most active on record. The primary reason the 2004 hurricane season will be remembered, however, is because of the four hurricanes that devastated the Caribbean and the southeastern United States (Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). Estimated total U.S. hurricane damage was between $40 and $50 billion, and much additional damage was sustained in the Caribbean. It is shown that a very strong central Atlantic equatorial trough, associated with anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and anomalously weak tropospheric vertical wind shear, combined with extremely favorable midlatitude steering conditions to allow many of the Africa-spawned easterly waves to develop into major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. These major hurricanes then moved on long west-northwest tracks that brought them through the Caribbean and across the southeastern U.S. coastline. The very active and destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season is attributed to two primary features: a strong Atlantic equatorial trough and steering currents that caused hurricanes to track westward across the U.S. coastline.

scholarly journals Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (22) ◽  
pp. 8995-9005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruifang Wang ◽  
Liguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twentieth Century Reanalysis

Abstract Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin. Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.

Influence of Sea Surface Warming on Environmental Factors Affecting Long-Term Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (22) ◽  
pp. 5978-5989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liguang Wu ◽  
Li Tao ◽  
Qinghua Ding
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Average Lifetime ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Past ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract Despite the observed high correlation between the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity, interpretation of this relationship remains uncertain. This study suggests that the tropical Atlantic sea surface warming induces a pair of anomalous low-level cyclones on each side of the equator, providing favorable conditions for enhancing TC formation east of 45°W, while the effect of SST warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean tends to suppress the TC formation. Over the past 30 years (1978–2007), the TC activity in the Atlantic basin is characterized with significant enhancement of TC formation east of 45°W, where the total TC number increased significantly compared to the period 1948–77. Despite the possible undercount of TCs, this study shows that the recently enhanced TC formation may not be totally accounted for by the poor TC observing network prior to the satellite era. The Atlantic sea surface warming that occurred in recent decades might have allowed more TCs to form, to form earlier, and to take a longer track, while the effect is partially offset by the SST warming in Indian and Pacific Oceans. This study suggests that the close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past 30 years, including basinwide increases in the average lifetime, annual frequency, proportion of intense hurricanes, and annual accumulated power dissipation index (PDI), as reported in previous studies, is mainly a result of the SST warming in the tropical Atlantic exceeding that in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The results agree with recent argument that the relative Atlantic SST change or the SST difference between the tropical Atlantic and other oceans play an important role in controlling long-term TC activity in the Atlantic basin.

scholarly journals The Extremely Active 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (10) ◽  
pp. 3425-3443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Carl J. Schreck III ◽  
Jennifer M. Collins ◽  
Michael M. Bell ◽  
Eric S. Blake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Hurricane Season

Abstract The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, with 17 named storms (1981–2010 median is 12.0), 10 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 6 major hurricanes (median is 2.0), and 245% of median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) occurring. September 2017 generated more Atlantic named storm days, hurricane days, major hurricane days, and ACE than any other calendar month on record. The season was destructive, with Harvey and Irma devastating portions of the continental United States, while Irma and Maria brought catastrophic damage to Puerto Rico, Cuba, and many other Caribbean islands. Seasonal forecasts increased from calling for a slightly below-normal season in April to an above-normal season in August as large-scale environmental conditions became more favorable for an active hurricane season. During that time, the tropical Atlantic warmed anomalously while a potential El Niño decayed in the Pacific. Anomalously high SSTs prevailed across the tropical Atlantic, and vertical wind shear was anomalously weak, especially in the central tropical Atlantic, from late August to late September when several major hurricanes formed. Late-season hurricane activity was likely reduced by a convectively suppressed phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation. The large-scale steering flow was different from the average over the past decade with a strong subtropical high guiding hurricanes farther west across the Atlantic. The anomalously high tropical Atlantic SSTs and low vertical wind shear were comparable to other very active seasons since 1982.

scholarly journals AGCM Precipitation Biases in the Tropical Atlantic

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 935-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Biasutti ◽  
A. H. Sobel ◽  
Y. Kushnir
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Rain Events

Abstract Many general circulation models (GCMs) share similar biases in the representation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic, even when they are forced with the time series of the observed sea surface temperature (SST). Specifically, they overestimate precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere in boreal spring and in the Caribbean region in boreal summer. The majority of the models considered here place the rainfall maximum over the SST maximum, although the true precipitation maximum does not occur there. This is the case even though these GCMs accurately place the maximum in surface wind convergence away from the SST maximum, at the location where the observed precipitation maximum lies. Models that overrespond to SST in this way tend to (i) have fewer heavy-rain events, (ii) rain more for a smaller amount of water vapor in the atmospheric column, and (iii) couple rainfall and surface humidity too strongly and rainfall and humidity above the surface too weakly.

How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures?

1999 ◽  
Vol 104 (C4) ◽  
pp. 7841-7848 ◽  
Author(s):  
David B. Enfield ◽  
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez ◽  
Dennis A. Mayer ◽  
Luis Cid-Serrano
Keyword(s):  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Surface Temperatures
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document