The Interaction between African Easterly Waves and Different Types of Deep Convection and Its Influence on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

This study revisited the association of African easterly waves (AEWs) to Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) development using weather states (WSs) from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, National Hurricane Center best track hurricane data (HURDAT2), and reanalysis products. The WS data are used as a proxy for two different types of deep convection. This study covers July–October 1984–2009. Statistical analysis based on HURDAT2 and objectively tracked AEWs has shown that a small fraction (~20%) of the AEWs that propagate from Africa serve as TC precursors. About 80% of the AEWs from the continent were non-developing. As in the past work, our study showed an important difference between developing and non-developing AEWs. Composites based on developing AEWs revealed well-organized large scale deep convection (one type, composed of mesoscale systems and thick anvil clouds) is tightly coupled to the AEW trough, while scattered, less well-organized deep convection (second type, isolated cumulonimbus and cumulus congestus clouds) dominated a large area downstream of the developing AEW trough. Developing AEWs propagate westwards while strengthening. In contrast, non-developing AEWs showed that the peak well-organized deep convection is located either behind (to the east of) or far ahead (to the west) of the AEW trough (peaks values are not in close proximity). Moreover, well-organized deep convections associated with non-developing AEWs were weaker than those associated with developing AEWs. The results indicated that convective activity ahead of the non-developing AEWs is weak. Positive relative humidity (RH) anomalies dominate the area around AEWs and downstream over the main TC development region. In contrast, negative RH dominated the main TC development region ahead of non-developing AEWs, suggesting an unfavorable environment downstream of the AEWs. The results also showed that developing AEWs maintained stronger features in the lower and middle troposphere, while non-developing AEWs exhibited weaker structures, in agreement with past work. (Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the journal’s website of this edition).

Passive versus Active Transport of Saharan Dust Aerosols by African Easterly Waves

Theory and modeling are combined to reveal the physical and dynamical processes that control Saharan dust transport by amplifying African easterly waves (AEWs). Two cases are examined: active transport, in which the dust is radiatively coupled to the circulation; passive transport, in which the dust is radiatively decoupled from the circulation. The theory is built around a dust conservation equation for dust-coupled AEWs in zonal-mean African easterly jets. The theory predicts that, for both the passive and active cases, the dust transports will be largest where the zonal-mean dust gradients are maximized on an AEW critical surface. Whether the dust transports are largest for the radiatively passive or radiatively active case depends on the growth rate of the AEWs, which is modulated by the dust heating. The theoretical predictions are confirmed via experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, which is coupled to a dust conservation equation. The experiments show that the meridional dust transports dominate in the passive case, while the vertical dust transports dominate in the active case.

Energetics of Interactions between African Easterly Waves and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

Perturbation kinetic and available energy budgets are used to explore how convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) impact African easterly wave (AEW) activity. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the African easterly jet’s meridional shear, thus enhancing the barotropic energy conversions, leading to intensification of southern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the barotropic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. Baroclinic energy conversion of the southern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. AEWs in the convective phase of a Kelvin wave have stronger perturbation available potential energy generation by diabatic heating and stronger baroclinic overturning circulations than in the suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave. These differences suggest that southern track AEWs within the convective phase of Kelvin waves have more vigorous convection than in the suppressed phase of Kelvin waves. Barotropic energy conversion of the northern track AEWs is not significantly different between Kelvin waves’ convective and suppressed phases. The convective phase of the Kelvin wave increases the lower-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient north of the African easterly jet, thus enhancing the baroclinic energy conversion, leading to intensification of northern track AEWs perturbation kinetic energy. In contrast, the baroclinic energy conversion is reduced in the suppressed phase of KW. These results provide a physical basis for the modulation of AEWs by Kelvin waves arriving from upstream.

Model Sensitivity Study of the Direct Radiative Impact of Saharan Dust on the Early Stage of Hurricane Earl

Current studies report inconsistent results about the impacts of Saharan dust on the development of African Easterly Waves (AEWs), the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), and tropical cyclones (TCs). We present a modeling case study to further elucidate the direct radiative impacts of dust on the early development stage of a TC. We conducted experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem-V3.9.1) to simulate Hurricane Earl (2010) which was influenced by the dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL). We used the aerosol product from ECMWF MACC-II as the initial and boundary conditions to represent aerosol distribution, along with typical model treatment of its radiative and microphysical effects in WRF. Our simulations at 36-km resolution show that, within the first 36 h, the presence of dust weakens the low-pressure system over North Africa by less than 1 hPa and reduces its mean temperature by 0.03 K. Dust weakens and intensifies the AEJ at its core and periphery, respectively, with magnitudes less than 0.2 m/s. Dust slightly shifts the position of 600 hPa AEW to the south and reduces its intensity prior to impacting the TC. Finally, TC with dust remains weaker.

Effects of Saharan Dust on African Easterly Waves: The Impact of Aerosol-Affected Satellite Radiances on Data Assimilation

This study incorporates time-varying aerosols into satellite radiance calculations within the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) to investigate its impact on African easterly waves (AEWs) and their environment. Comparison of analysis fields from the aerosol-aware experiment and an aerosol-blind control during August 2017 showed that the aerosol-affected radiances accelerated the African easterly jet and West African monsoon flow; warmed the Saharan boundary layer; and modified the AEW vorticity structure, with increases in the northern circulation and decreases in the southern circulation. Analysis fields from each experiment were used in the Global Forecast System (GFS) to examine differences in forecasting two AEW cases that developed hurricanes over the Atlantic, but were structurally different over North Africa. The aerosol-aware experiment reduced errors in forecasting the AEW case whose northern circulation interacted with a large-scale Saharan dust plume; neutral improvement was found for the other AEW, which did not contain a northern circulation nor interacted with a dust plume. The changes to the analysis fields by the aerosol-aware assimilation are reminiscent of dust radiative effects that operate on AEWs and their environment. That is, the aerosol-affected radiances produce corrections to the brightness temperatures that modify the analysis fields like dust aerosols that are radiatively coupled to the atmospheric variables in the forecast model. We show qualitatively that dust radiative effects are captured by the aerosol-affected radiances for the AEW case that interacted with a dust plume, which served to improve forecasts of the wave downstream.

Favorable monsoon environment over eastern Africa for subsequent tropical cyclogenesis of African easterly waves

Eastern Africa is a common region of African easterly wave (AEW) onset and AEW early-life. How the large-scale environment over east Africa relates to the likelihood of an AEW subsequently undergoing tropical cyclogenesis in a climatology has not been documented. This study addresses the following hypothesis: AEWs that undergo tropical cyclogenesis (i.e., developing AEWs) initiate and propagate under a more favorable monsoon large-scale environment over eastern Africa when compared to non-developing AEWs. Using a 21-year August-to-September (1990-2010) climatology of AEWs, differences in the large-scale environment between developers and non-developers are identified and are propose to be used as key predictors of subsequent tropical cyclone formation and could informtropical cyclogenesis prediction. TC precursors when compared to non-developing AEWs experience: an anomalously active West African Monsoon, stronger northerly flow, more intense zonal Somali jet, anomalous convergence over the Marrah Mountains (region of AEW forcing), and a more intense and elongated African easterly jet (AEJ). These large-scale conditions are linked to near-trough attributes of developing AEWs which favor more moisture ingestion, vertically aligned circulation, a stronger initial 850-hPa vortex, deeper wave pouch, and arguably more AEW and Mesoscale convective systems interactions. AEWs that initiate over eastern Africa and cross the west coast of Africa are more likely to undergo tropical cyclogenesis than those initiating over central or west Africa. Developing AEWs are more likely to be southern-track AEWs than non-developing AEWs.

African easterly waves in an idealized general circulation model: instability and wave packet diagnostics

We examine the group dynamic of African easterly waves (AEWs) generated in a realistic, spatially non-homogeneous African easterly jet (AEJ) using an idealized general circulation model. Our objective is to investigate whether the limited zonal extent of the AEJ is an impediment to AEW development. We construct a series of basic states using global reanalysis fields and initialize waves via transient heating over West Africa. The dominant response is a localized, near-stationary wave packet that disperses upstream and downstream. The inclusion of a crude representation of boundary layer damping stabilizes the waves in most cases, consistent with other studies in the past. In some basic states, however, exponential growth occurs even in the presence of damping. This shows that AEWs can occasionally emerge spontaneously. The key result is that, whether triggered by an external forcing or generated internally, the wave packet can remain within the AEJ for multiple wave periods instead of being swept away. Drawing from other studies, this also suggests that even the damped waves can grow if coupled with additional sources of energy such as moist convection and dust radiative feedback. The wave packet in the localized AEJ appears to satisfy a condition for absolute instability, a form of spatial hydrodynamic instability. However, this needs to be verified more rigorously. We conclude that the limited zonal extent of the AEJ is not an impediment. Our results also suggest that the intermittent nature of AEWs is mediated, not by transitions between convective and absolute instability, but likely by external sources such as propagating equatorial wave modes.

Atlantic hurricane response to Saharan greening and reduced dust emissions during the mid-Holocene

We use a high-resolution regional climate model to investigate the changes in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity during the period of the mid-Holocene (MH: 6000 years BP) with a larger amplitude of the seasonal cycle relative to today. This period was characterized by increased boreal summer insolation over the Northern Hemisphere, a vegetated Sahara and reduced airborne dust concentrations. A set of sensitivity experiments was conducted in which solar insolation, vegetation and dust concentrations were changed in turn to disentangle their impacts on TC activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Results show that the greening of the Sahara and reduced dust loadings (MHGS+RD) lead to a larger increase in the number of Atlantic TCs (27 %) relative to the pre-industrial (PI) climate than the orbital forcing alone (MHPMIP; 9 %). The TC seasonality is also highly modified in the MH climate, showing a decrease in TC activity during the beginning of the hurricane season (June to August), with a shift of its maximum towards October and November in the MHGS+RD experiment relative to PI. MH experiments simulate stronger hurricanes compared to PI, similar to future projections. Moreover, they suggest longer-lasting cyclones relative to PI. Our results also show that changes in the African easterly waves are not relevant in altering the frequency and intensity of TCs, but they may shift the location of their genesis. This work highlights the importance of considering vegetation and dust changes over the Sahara region when investigating TC activity under a different climate state.

Surface cooling caused by rare but intense near-inertial wave induced mixing in the tropical Atlantic

<p>The direct response of the tropical mixed layer to near-inertial waves (NIWs) has only rarely been observed. Here, we present upper-ocean turbulence data that provide evidence for a strongly elevated vertical diffusive heat flux across the base of the mixed layer in the presence of a NIW, thereby cooling the mixed layer at a rate of 244 Wm<sup>−2</sup> over the 20 h of continuous measurements. We investigate the seasonal cycle of strong NIW events and find that despite their local intermittent nature, they occur preferentially during boreal summer, presumably associated with the passage of atmospheric African Easterly Waves. We illustrate the impact of these rare but intense NIW induced mixing events on the mixed layer heat balance, highlight their contribution to the seasonal evolution of sea surface temperature, and discuss their potential impact on biological productivity in the tropical North Atlantic.</p>

NASA’s Contributions to the 2021 Aeolus Field Campaign: CPEX-AW

<p>In 2020, a joint NASA-ESA campaign focusing on the tropics was planned to take place in Cabo Verde. This campaign, now delayed to 2021, was designed to engage the broader scientific atmospheric dynamics community and to assist in calibrating and validating the recently launched ESA Aeolus wind lidar satellite system. This campaign is an opportunity to join the U.S. and European airborne wind lidar system teams addressing the Aeolus calibration and validation. Nominally, the NASA contribution is a follow-on to the Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) field campaign which took place in 2017 (https://cpex.jpl.nasa.gov/). The 2021 field campaign will add an aerosol (A) and winds (W) component—CPEX-AW—and will provide opportunities to study the dynamics and microphysics related to the Saharan air layer, African easterly waves and jets, the marine atmospheric boundary layer, and convection that not only advance our understanding of tropical dynamics but also improve weather forecasts. The NASA component of the field campaign plans to begin intensive operations in early July 2021 and will continue until mid-August. Approximately 150 flight hours are planned on NASA’s DC-8 aircraft. Planned instruments are the Doppler Aerosol WiNd Lidar (DAWN), the High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO), the APR-3 radar (Ku, Ka, and W bands), the High Altitude Monolithic Microwave integrated Circuit (MMIC) Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR), and dropsondes. During Summer 2020, NASA’s team hosted a dry run of a simulated field campaign which included virtual flights. In this talk, we will discuss the plans for NASAs contributions to the 2021 Aeolus Field Campaign and present preliminary findings from using Aeolus data and CPEX-AW dry-run virtual flights.</p>