scholarly journals Compared to What? Establishing Environmental Baselines for Tornado Warning Skill

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey ◽  
Harold Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Tornado Warning

Capsule summaryApplying information from tornadic near-storm environments allows for the development of explicit, meaningful, and mutable baselines of expected skill when evaluating tornado forecasts.

scholarly journals A Preliminary Look at the Social Perspective of Warn-on-Forecast: Preferred Tornado Warning Lead Time and the General Public’s Perceptions of Weather Risks

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hoekstra ◽  
K. Klockow ◽  
R. Riley ◽  
J. Brotzge ◽  
H. Brooks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Stated Preference ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Present System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Risks

Abstract Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by the public (i.e., individuals and households). The authors sample is drawn from visitors to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the summer and fall of 2009, surveys were distributed to 320 participants to assess their understanding and perception of weather risks and preferred tornado warning lead time. Responses were analyzed according to several different parameters including age, region of residency, educational level, number of children, and prior tornado experience. A majority of the respondents answered many of the weather risk questions correctly. They seemed to be familiar with tornado seasons; however, they were unaware of the relative number of fatalities caused by tornadoes and several additional weather phenomena each year in the United States. The preferred lead time was 34.3 min according to average survey responses. This suggests that while the general public may currently prefer a longer average lead time than the present system offers, the preference does not extend to the 1–2-h time frame theoretically offered by the warn-on-forecast system. When asked what they would do if given a 1-h lead time, respondents reported that taking shelter was a lesser priority than when given a 15-min lead time, and fleeing the area became a slightly more popular alternative. A majority of respondents also reported the situation would feel less life threatening if given a 1-h lead time. These results suggest that how the public responds to longer lead times may be complex and situationally dependent, and further study must be conducted to ascertain the users for whom the longer lead times would carry the most value. These results form the basis of an informative stated-preference approach to predicting public response to long (>1 h) warning lead times, using public understanding of the risks posed by severe weather events to contextualize lead-time demand.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

Tornado Warning Guidance and Graphics: Implications of the Inclusion of Protective Action Information on Perceptions and Efficacy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeannette Sutton ◽  
Laura Fischer ◽  
Michele M. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Protective Action ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Response Efficacy ◽  
Protective Actions ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Ability To Act ◽  
Populations At Risk ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Types Of Information ◽  
Action Guidance

AbstractEffective warning messages should tell people what they should do, how they should do it, and how to maximize their health and safety. Guidance essentially delivers two types of information: 1) information that instructs people about the actions to take in response to a threat, and 2) information about how and why these recommended protective actions will reduce harm. However, recent research reported that while automated tornado warnings, sent by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center via the account @NWStornado on Twitter, included useful information about the location of the threat, the potential impacts, and populations at risk, it failed to provide content that would contribute to successful protective actions. In this experimental study we investigate how the inclusion and presentation of protective action guidance affects participant perceptions of a tornado warning message and their perceived ability to act upon the information (i.e., self- and response-efficacy). We find that the inclusion of protective action guidance results an increase in the participants’ understanding of the message, their ability to decide what to do, and their perceived self- and response-efficacy. Knowing how to take action to protect oneself, and believing the actions will make oneself safe, are key motivators to taking action when faced with a significant threat. Future warning research should draw from other persuasive messaging and health behavior theories, and should include self- and response- efficacy as important causal factors. It should also look across additional hazards to determine if these outcomes differ by the length of forewarning and hazard type.

scholarly journals Near-Storm Environments of Outbreak and Isolated Tornadoes

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1397-1412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey ◽  
Yvette P. Richardson ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Bryan T. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Geographical Region ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Specific Shape ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks

Abstract Between 2003 and 2015, there were 5343 outbreak tornadoes and 9389 isolated tornadoes reported in the continental United States. Here, the near-storm environmental parameter-space distributions of these two categories are compared via kernel density estimation, and the seasonal, diurnal, and geographical features of near-storm environments of these two sets of events are compared via self-organizing maps (SOMs). Outbreak tornadoes in a given geographical region tend to be characterized by greater 0–1-km storm-relative helicity and 0–6-km vector shear magnitude than isolated tornadoes in the same geographical region and also have considerably higher tornado warning-based probability of detection (POD) than isolated tornadoes. A SOM of isolated tornadoes highlights that isolated tornadoes with higher POD also tend to feature higher values of the significant tornado parameter (STP), regardless of the specific shape of the area of STP. For a SOM of outbreak tornadoes, when two outbreak environments with similarly high magnitudes but different patterns of STP are compared, the difference is primarily geographical, with one environment dominated by Great Plains and Midwest outbreaks and another dominated by outbreaks in the southeastern United States. Two specific tornado outbreaks are featured, and the events are placed into their climatological context with more nuance than typical single proximity sounding-based approaches would allow.

Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 1351-1368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Sean Ernst ◽  
Jinan N. Allan ◽  
Wesley Wehde ◽  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tornado Warning

Prometheus Wired: The Hope for Democracy in the Age of Network Technology. By Darin Barney. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000. 340p. $29.00.

2001 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 200-201
Author(s):  
Ted Becker
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Political Philosophy ◽  
Computer Network ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Network Technology ◽  
University Of Chicago ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
University Of Chicago Press ◽  
Mother Lode

This is a welcome and provocative addition to the growing literature on the politics of the Internet. In addition to its rich intellectual texture and mother-lode of information about computer hard- and software, it is a quick read because the author has a sharp tongue and makes excellent points. It is a unique blend of political philosophy, political economic theory, and computer network technology in support of a political F-5 tornado warning.

scholarly journals Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 795-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walker S. Ashley ◽  
Andrew J. Krmenec ◽  
Rick Schwantes
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Building Structures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mobile Homes ◽  
The Past ◽  
High Fatality Rate ◽  
Potential Break ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Dissemination System

Abstract This study investigates the human vulnerability caused by tornadoes that occurred between sunset and sunrise from 1880 to 2007. Nocturnal tornadoes are theorized to enhance vulnerability because they are difficult to spot and occur when the public tends to be asleep and in weak building structures. Results illustrate that the nocturnal tornado death rate over the past century has not shared the same pace of decline as those events transpiring during the daytime. From 1950 to 2005, a mere 27.3% of tornadoes were nocturnal, yet 39.3% of tornado fatalities and 42.1% of killer tornado events occurred at night. Tornadoes during the overnight period (local midnight to sunrise) are 2.5 times as likely to kill as those occurring during the daytime hours. It is argued that a core reason why the national tornado fatality toll has not continued to decrease in the past few decades is due to the vulnerability to these nocturnal events. This vulnerability is magnified when other factors such as escalating mobile (or “manufactured”) home stock and an increasing and spreading population are realized. Unlike other structure types that show no robust demarcation between nocturnal and daytime fatalities, nearly 61% of fatalities in mobile homes take place at night revealing this housing stock’s distinct nocturnal tornado vulnerability. Further, spatial analysis illustrates that the American South’s high nocturnal tornado risk is an important factor leading to the region’s high fatality rate. The investigation emphasizes a potential break in the tornado warning dissemination system utilized currently in the United States.

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