Trend Reversal in Lake Michigan Contribution to Snowfall

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (11) ◽  
pp. 2038-2046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Bard ◽  
David A. R. Kristovich
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Climate Studies ◽  
Trend Reversal

AbstractOne of the most notable ways the Laurentian Great Lakes impact the region’s climate is by augmenting snowfall in downwind locations during autumn and winter months. Among many negative consequences, this surplus of snow can cause substantial property damage to homes and can escalate the number of traffic accident–related injuries and fatalities. The consensus among several previous studies is that lake-effect snowfall increased during the twentieth century in various locations in the Great Lakes region. The goal of this study is to better understand variability and long-term trends in Lake Michigan’s lake-contribution snowfall (LCS). LCS accounts for both lake-effect and lake-enhanced events. In addition, this study updates findings from previous investigations using snowfall observations found by a recent study to be appropriate for climate studies. It is demonstrated that considerable variability exists in 5-yr periods of LCS east and south of Lake Michigan from 1920 to 2005. A general increase in LCS from the early 1920s to the 1950–80 period at locations typically downwind of the lake was found. Thereafter, LCS decreased through the early 2000s, indicating a distinct trend reversal that is not reported by earlier studies. The reasons for this reversal are unclear. The reversal is consistent with observed increasing minimum temperatures during winter months after the 1970s, however.

scholarly journals Maps, trends, and temperature sensitivities—phenological information from and for decreasing numbers of volunteer observers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Stefan Härer ◽  
Tobias Ottenheym ◽  
Gourav Misra ◽  
Alissa Lüpke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Interpolation Accuracy ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Shiny App ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractPhenology serves as a major indicator of ongoing climate change. Long-term phenological observations are critically important for tracking and communicating these changes. The phenological observation network across Germany is operated by the National Meteorological Service with a major contribution from volunteering activities. However, the number of observers has strongly decreased for the last decades, possibly resulting in increasing uncertainties when extracting reliable phenological information from map interpolation. We studied uncertainties in interpolated maps from decreasing phenological records, by comparing long-term trends based on grid-based interpolated and station-wise observed time series, as well as their correlations with temperature. Interpolated maps in spring were characterized by the largest spatial variabilities across Bavaria, Germany, with respective lowest interpolated uncertainties. Long-term phenological trends for both interpolations and observations exhibited mean advances of −0.2 to −0.3 days year−1 for spring and summer, while late autumn and winter showed a delay of around 0.1 days year−1. Throughout the year, temperature sensitivities were consistently stronger for interpolated time series than observations. Such a better representation of regional phenology by interpolation was equally supported by satellite-derived phenological indices. Nevertheless, simulation of observer numbers indicated that a decline to less than 40% leads to a strong decrease in interpolation accuracy. To better understand the risk of declining phenological observations and to motivate volunteer observers, a Shiny app is proposed to visualize spatial and temporal phenological patterns across Bavaria and their links to climate change–induced temperature changes.

Long-term trends of nutrients and trophic response variables for the Great Lakes

2015 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 696-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Dove ◽  
Steven C. Chapra
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Response Variables

Long-Term Changes in the Macrobenthos of Southern Lake Michigan

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 515-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Nalepa
Keyword(s):  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Fish Populations ◽  
Forage Fish ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Sampling Depth ◽  
Benthic Survey ◽  
Comprehensive Survey ◽  
Long Term Trends

A benthic survey of 40 stations in southern Lake Michigan in 1980–81 was compared with results of studies conducted in the mid-1960's to evaluate long-term trends in populations. The three major benthic groups, Pontoporeia, oligochaetes, and sphaeriids, were significantly more abundant in 1980–81. Compared with the most comprehensive survey (conducted in 1964–67), Pontoporeia increased two- to fivefold at depths less than 50 m, but did not increase at depths greater than 50 m. Oligochaetes increased two- to threefold regardless of sampling depth, while sphaeriids increased twofold at depths less than 50 m but decreased somewhat at depths greater than 50 m. Although oligochaete abundances increased, overall shifts in species composition were not apparent. Changes in abundances of Pontoporeia may have been related to shifts in predation pressure from forage fish populations, but increased oligochaete abundances can likely be related to increased enrichment between the two sampling periods. Although apparent improvements in the water quality of Lake Michigan since the mid-1970's were not yet reflected by benthic populations in 1980–81, continued monitoring of the benthos should provide a useful indicator of future trends.

Cross-basin analysis of long-term trends in the growth of lake whitefish in the Laurentian Great Lakes

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 1138-1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon A. Fera ◽  
Michael D. Rennie ◽  
Erin S. Dunlop
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Basin Analysis ◽  
Laurentian Great Lakes ◽  
Lake Whitefish ◽  
Long Term Trends

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Snowfall Variability in the Lake Michigan Region: How is Warming Affecting Wintertime Snowfall?

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (8) ◽  
pp. 1813-1830 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig A. Clark ◽  
Travis J. Elless ◽  
Anthony W. Lyza ◽  
Bharath Ganesh-Babu ◽  
Dana M. Koning ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Temporal Behavior ◽  
Temperature Peak ◽  
Spatiotemporal Structure ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Trend Reversal

AbstractThis study has investigated the spatiotemporal structure and changes in Lake Michigan snowfall for the period 1950–2013. With data quality caveats acknowledged, a larger envelope of stations was included than in previous studies to explore the data using time series analysis, principal component analysis, and geographic information systems. Results indicate warming in recent decades, a near-dearth of serial correlation, midwinter dependence on teleconnection patterns, strong sensitivity of snowfall to temperature, peak snowfall variability and dependence on temperature within the lake-effect belt, an increasing fraction of seasonal snowfall occurring from December to February, and temporal behavior consistent with the previously reported trend reversal in snowfall.

scholarly journals Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Jake Wiley ◽  
Andrew Mercer
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Lake Superior ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Lake Effect

As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and ongoing research is beginning to focus on the large-scale environments conducive to LES. Synoptic-scale composites are constructed for Lake Michigan and Lake Superior LES events by employing an LES case repository for these regions within the U.S. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data for each LES event were used to construct synoptic maps of dominant LES patterns for each lake. These maps were formulated using a previously implemented composite technique that blends principal component analysis with a k-means cluster analysis. A sample case from each resulting cluster was also selected and simulated using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model to obtain an example mesoscale depiction of the LES environment. The study revealed four synoptic setups for Lake Michigan and three for Lake Superior whose primary differences were discrepancies in a surface pressure dipole structure previously linked with Great Lakes LES. These subtle synoptic-scale differences suggested that while overall LES impacts were driven more by the mesoscale conditions for these lakes, synoptic-scale conditions still provided important insight into the character of LES forcing mechanisms, primarily the steering flow and air–lake thermodynamics.

scholarly journals PROPERTIES OF LONGSHORE BARS IN THE GREAT LAKES

1970 ◽  
Vol 1 (12) ◽  
pp. 53 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Saylor ◽  
Edward B. Hands
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Incident Wave ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Sediment Properties ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
The Stability

Longshore bars are permanent features of nearshore bathymetry along the windward coasts of the Great Lakes The stability and permanency of these features have been noted by numerous investigators, but movements of the bars and troughs vn relation to varying lake levels and incident wave energies are not fully understood Studies of nearshore bathymetry and sediment properties were conducted during 1967 and 1969 along a forty-five kilometer reach of the eastern coast of Lake Michigan Results show that the offshore bars migrate significantly due to changes in lake level, a rise of one-half meter in the surface of Lake Michigan between 1967 and 1969 was accompanied by a shoreward movement of bar crests and troughs over a distance averaging SO meters Elevations of the crests and troughs are also built upward toward new equiblibrium levels during rising water levels, but elevating of the crests lags the increase in stage Extensive shore erosion occurs because of the reduced effectiveness of longshore bars in dissipating incident wave energy The average crest depth was found to increase linearly in the offshore direction Average distances between crests increase exponentially These relationships are preserved during the bar growth and shifting that accompanies long term changes in lake level Bar troughs are characteristically crescent shaped, with no abrupt changes in slope Fathograms from several ranges show atypical trough configurations consisting of flat bottoms with discontinuities in slope on ascent to adoacent crests This unusual trough shape is indicative of an immobile stratum exposed along the bottom of the trough.

scholarly journals An Investigation of Cold-Season Short-Wave Troughs in the Great Lakes Region and Their Concurrence with Lake-Effect Clouds

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 605-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas D. Metz ◽  
Zachary S. Bruick ◽  
Peyton K. Capute ◽  
Molly M. Neureuter ◽  
Emily W. Ott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Great Lakes Region ◽  
Cloud Band ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Concurrent Events

AbstractThe downwind shores of the Laurentian Great Lakes region often receive prolific amounts of lake-effect snowfall during the cold season (October–March). The location and intensity of this snowfall can be influenced by upper-tropospheric features such as short-wave troughs. A 7-yr cold-season climatology of 500-hPa short-wave troughs was developed for the Great Lakes region. A total of 607 short-wave troughs were identified, with an average of approximately 87 short waves per cold season. Five classes of short-wave troughs were identified on the basis of their movement through the Great Lakes region. This short-wave trough dataset was subsequently compared with the lake-effect cloud-band climatology created by N. F. Laird et al. in 2017 to determine how frequently short-wave troughs occurred concurrently with lake-effect cloud bands. Of the 607 short-wave troughs identified, 380 were concurrent with lake-effect clouds. Over 65% of these 380 short-wave troughs occurred with a lake-effect cloud band on at least four of the five Great Lakes. Short-wave troughs that rotated around the base of a long-wave trough were found to have the highest frequency of concurrence. In general, concurrence was most likely during the middle cold-season months. Further, Lake Michigan featured the highest number of concurrent events, and Lake Erie featured the fewest. It is evident that short-wave troughs are a ubiquitous feature near the Great Lakes during the cold season and have the potential to impart substantial impacts on lake-effect snowbands.

Intakes as Sampling Locations for Investigating Long-Term Trends in Zooplankton Populations

1984 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1513-1518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlene S. Evans ◽  
Loren E. Flath
Keyword(s):  
Community Structure ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Lake Michigan ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Sampling Location ◽  
Water Interface ◽  
Accurate Representation ◽  
Sampling Locations ◽  
Long Term Trends

We present data demonstrating the representativeness of a power plant intake as a sampling location for investigating long-term trends in zooplankton populations. The intake (Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant) and the inshore region (southeastern Lake Michigan) were sampled within a matter of days on 54 occasions between April 1975 and November 1981. Intake population estimates were significantly correlated with inshore region population estimates for all 26 zooplankton taxa categories analyzed. Differences in abundances in intake and inshore region samples were not significant for most euplanktonic taxa. The plant apparently entrained water and microcrustaceans from the sediment–water interface. However, because vertically hauled plankton nets do not effectively sample the lower 1 m of the water column, intake sampling may provide a more accurate representation of nearshore region copepod and cladoceran community structure than traditionally employed methods for inshore region sampling.

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