Limitations of Seasonal Predictability for Summer Climate over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7574-7589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
J. S. Chowdary ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Young-Mi Min ◽  
June-Yi Lee
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
Silk Road Pattern ◽  
The Silk Road

Predictability of summer climate anomalies over East Asia and the northwestern Pacific is investigated using observations and a multimodel hindcast ensemble initialized on 1 May for the recent 20–30 yr. Summertime East Asia is under the influence of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (PASH). The Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern, a meridional dipole of sea level pressure variability, affects the northwestern PASH. The forecast models generally capture the association of the PJ pattern with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Silk Road pattern, a wave train along the summer Asian jet, is another dominant teleconnection that influences the northwestern PASH and East Asia. In contrast to the PJ pattern, observational analysis reveals a lack of correlations between the Silk Road pattern and ENSO. Coupled models cannot predict the temporal phase of the Silk Road pattern, despite their ability to reproduce its spatial structure as the leading mode of atmospheric internal variability. Thus, the pattern is rather unpredictable at monthly to seasonal lead, limiting the seasonal predictability for summer in East Asia. The anomalous summer of 2010 in East Asia is a case in point, illustrating the interference by the Silk Road pattern. Canonical anomalies associated with a decayed El Niño and developing La Niña would have the PJ pattern bring a cold summer to East Asia in 2010. In reality, the Silk Road pattern overwhelmed this tendency, bringing a record-breaking hot summer instead. A dynamical model experiment indicates that European blocking was instrumental in triggering the Silk Road pattern in the 2010 summer.

ROLE OF SNOW DEPTH IN THE INFLUENCE OF EL NIÑO ON SUMMER CLIMATE ANOMALIES OVER EAST ASIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 569-582
Author(s):  
WANG Yan-Feng ◽  
SUN Xu-Guang ◽  
YANG Xiu-Qun
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Summer Climate

scholarly journals Impacts of Different Types of El Niño on the East Asian Climate: Focus on ENSO Cycles

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7702-7722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Yuan ◽  
Song Yang
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
East Asian Climate ◽  
Ep El Niño

Using multiple datasets and a partial correlation method, the authors analyze the different impacts of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño on East Asian climate, focusing on the features from El Niño developing summer to El Niño decaying summer. Unlike the positive–negative–positive (+/−/+) anomalous precipitation pattern over East Asia and the equatorial Pacific during EP El Niño, an anomalous −/+/− rainfall pattern appears during CP El Niño. The anomalous dry conditions over southeastern China and the northwestern Pacific during CP El Niño seem to result from the anomalous low-level anticyclone over southern China and the South China Sea, which is located more westward than the Philippine Sea anticyclone during EP El Niño. The continuous anomalous sinking motion over southeastern China, as part of the anomalous Walker circulation associated with CP El Niño, also contributes to these dry conditions. During the developing summer, the impact of CP El Niño on East Asian climate is more significant than the influence of EP El Niño. During the decaying summer, however, EP El Niño exerts a stronger influence on East Asia, probably due to the long-lasting anomalous warming over the tropical Indian Ocean accompanying EP El Niño. Temperatures over portions of East Asia and the northwestern Pacific tend to be above normal during EP El Niño but below normal from the developing autumn to the next spring during CP El Niño. A possible reason is the weakened (enhanced) East Asian winter monsoon related to EP (CP) El Niño.

scholarly journals Connection between the Silk Road Pattern in July and the following January temperature over East Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 378-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shengping He ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Huijun Wang
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Silk Road Pattern ◽  
The Silk Road

scholarly journals Weakened Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone during an El Niño–Decaying Summer under a Warmer Climate: Dominant Role of the Weakened Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean on the Atmosphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 213-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao He ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Subtropical Anticyclone ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most prominent atmospheric circulation anomaly over the subtropical Northern Hemisphere during the decaying summer of an El Niño event. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiments of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we show evidence that the anomalous WNPAC during the El Niño–decaying summer is weaker in a warmer climate although the amplitude of the El Niño remains generally unchanged. The weakened impact of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the atmosphere is essential for the weakened anomalous WNPAC. In a warmer climate, the warm tropospheric temperature (TT) anomaly in the tropical free troposphere stimulated by the El Niño–related SSTA is enhanced through stronger moist adiabatic adjustment in a warmer mean state, even if the SSTA of El Niño is unchanged. But the amplitude of the warm SSTA over TIO remains generally unchanged in an El Niño–decaying summer, the static stability of the boundary layer over TIO is increased, and the positive rainfall anomaly over TIO is weakened. As a result, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from TIO is weakened because of a weaker latent heating anomaly over TIO, which is responsible for the weakened WNPAC anomaly. Numerical experiments support the weakened sensitivity of precipitation anomaly over TIO to local SSTA under an increase of mean-state SST and its essential role in the weakened anomalous WNPAC, independent of any change in the SSTA.

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variations of the Silk Road Pattern

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
pp. 9915-9932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Peiqiang Xu ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Yong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Wave Train ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeastern Asia ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
Silk Road Pattern ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The Silk Road

Based on several reanalysis and observational datasets, this study suggests that the Silk Road pattern (SRP), a major teleconnection pattern stretching across Eurasia in the boreal summer, shows clear interdecadal variations that explain approximately 50% of its total variance. The interdecadal SRP features a strong barotropic wave train along the Asian subtropical jet, resembling its interannual counterpart. Additionally, it features a second weak wave train over the northern part of Eurasia, leading to larger meridional scale than its interannual counterpart. The interdecadal SRP contributes approximately 40% of the summer surface air temperature’s variance with little uncertainty and 10%–20% of the summer precipitation’s variance with greater uncertainty over large domains of Eurasia. The interdecadal SRP shows two regime shifts in 1972 and 1997. The latter shift explains over 40% of the observed rainfall reduction over northeastern Asia and over 40% of the observed warming over eastern Europe, western Asia, and northeastern Asia, highlighting its importance to the recent decadal climate variations over Eurasia. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) does not show a significant linear relationship with the interdecadal SRP. However, the Monte Carlo bootstrapping resampling analysis suggests that the positive (negative) phases of the spring and summer AMO significantly facilitate the occurrence of negative (positive) phases of the interdecadal SRP, implying plausible prediction potentials for the interdecadal variations of the SRP. The reported results are insensitive to the long-term trends in datasets and thereby have little relevance to externally forced climate change.

tamh tm iedor sphere -1 el 9a8 ti 0vse , lyc li s m im a p te le models. Much more detailed than in the Australian region (Simpson and Downey 1975; run. Rather they are models than simp allysofomuuscehdm ro ourte in eelxypesn in si cvee th to e V ha osicbe ee anndfoH rc uendt 198 recasting El Nino behav­ tures for the p w er iitohd4o ). bsT1eh rv e BMRC climate model iour (e.g., sea surface temperatures in the east simulated by the model ha 9s49e -d 9 1 se , aasnud rf ac th eet em ra p in efraal ­ lfeoqrueactaosrti al r Pacific), they could, in theory, be used to ob been compared with the coupling o ai fnftahleloacnedantetmoptehrea tu artemoosvpehre re la nidn . th Tehseew te asse rv ru end ra fiinvfea ll t i ( m Fr eesd , er w ik istehne th teal. s1a9m9e5 ). seTahesm ur o fa dceelmmo od deellss , ( hPoowweevrere , tis less than perfect. Improved ocean ph m er p ic e ra ctoun re d s it io bnust . s T li h ghtly different starting atmos­ these coupled mode alls . . 1995) are being developed for ialg lu rseterm ate esnttw he it h ‘ noobisseer ’ veind iffe ed rtahier ence betw nfa m ll, o w de e l . neTeoenge th t e ed to av mru uns O era cghep se aarsto ne pro onfalthperebd le ic m ti own it ihstthheeduisfef ic oufltcy oupled models in all five runs as an ‘ens coupled models has in sitmhue la attim ng osrp ai hnefrailclA of u st p ra rleicainpp it raetc io ip n i tat sihoon, w em abtls le’. eoam st e The en o ve srkin ll sem o rt ihne bl sei ave rn Amuusl rag t a ra ti lnegsgoennte he ia. (Ni ra l sp su a c ti caelsssca in le ssiimmuploartt in an gtaftomrousspeh rs e , ridcesvpairtieab th il e it iyr Fur T th h e es resoau tm th o , stphheem ri odels are less successful. sea cshuo rf l a ls ce1t9e9m6p ) e . ra M tu ordeealneoxmpaelriiemsehnatvsewailtohngspheicsitfo ie ry djtohb er e o fo f re si m pr uolbaa ti bnlgyc th cemSoOdIel ( eFx ig pe urrieme3n .3 ts ) . do ThaegSoO od I an be predicted without the need

Droughts ◽  
2016 ◽  
pp. 77-77
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Coupled Mode ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
Surface Temperatures

scholarly journals Tropical land carbon cycle responses to 2015/16 El Niño as recorded by atmospheric greenhouse gas and remote sensing data

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuel Gloor ◽  
Chris Wilson ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Frederic Chevallier ◽  
Wolfgang Buermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Carbon Flux ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Minor Amount ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Tropical Vegetation ◽  
Carbon Release ◽  
The Impact

The outstanding tropical land climate characteristic over the past decades is rapid warming, with no significant large-scale precipitation trends. This warming is expected to continue but the effects on tropical vegetation are unknown. El Niño-related heat peaks may provide a test bed for a future hotter world. Here we analyse tropical land carbon cycle responses to the 2015/16 El Niño heat and drought anomalies using an atmospheric transport inversion. Based on the global atmospheric CO 2 and fossil fuel emission records, we find no obvious signs of anomalously large carbon release compared with earlier El Niño events, suggesting resilience of tropical vegetation. We find roughly equal net carbon release anomalies from Amazonia and tropical Africa, approximately 0.5 PgC each, and smaller carbon release anomalies from tropical East Asia and southern Africa. Atmospheric CO anomalies reveal substantial fire carbon release from tropical East Asia peaking in October 2015 while fires contribute only a minor amount to the Amazonian carbon flux anomaly. Anomalously large Amazonian carbon flux release is consistent with downregulation of primary productivity during peak negative near-surface water anomaly (October 2015 to March 2016) as diagnosed by solar-induced fluorescence. Finally, we find an unexpected anomalous positive flux to the atmosphere from tropical Africa early in 2016, coincident with substantial CO release. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

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