scholarly journals Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Results from CMIP5 Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (20) ◽  
pp. 7902-7911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
Matteo Zampieri ◽  
Antonio Navarra
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Precipitation Distribution ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Right ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this work, the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the twenty-first century and the twentieth century, assuming the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, the authors use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both boreal summer and winter seasons for the 1997–2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on models from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.

scholarly journals Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4 ° C) global warming

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 85-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. G. Sanderson ◽  
D. L. Hemming ◽  
R. A. Betts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Global Rate ◽  
Twenty First Century

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as ‘high-end’ (those projecting 4 ° C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and ‘non-high-end’ simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

scholarly journals Twenty-First-Century Changes in U.S. Regional Heavy Precipitation Frequency Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2501-2521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Gao ◽  
C. Adam Schlosser ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman ◽  
Erwan Monier ◽  
Dara Entekhabi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Precipitation Events

Precipitation-gauge observations and atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting heavy precipitation events based on prevailing large-scale atmospheric conditions. Combinations of atmospheric variables for circulation (geopotential height and wind vector) and moisture (surface specific humidity, column and up to 500-hPa precipitable water) are examined to construct analogue schemes for the winter [December–February (DJF)] of the “Pacific Coast California” (PCCA) region and the summer [June–August (JJA)] of the Midwestern United States (MWST). The detection diagnostics of analogue schemes are calibrated with 1979–2005 and validated with 2006–14 NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All analogue schemes are found to significantly improve upon MERRA precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events in the MWST. When evaluated with the late twentieth-century climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), all analogue schemes produce model medians of heavy precipitation frequency that are more consistent with observations and have smaller intermodel discrepancies than model-based precipitation. Under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CMIP5-based analogue schemes produce trends in heavy precipitation occurrence through the twenty-first century that are consistent with model-based precipitation, but with smaller intermodel disparity. The median trends in heavy precipitation frequency are positive for DJF over PCCA but are slightly negative for JJA over MWST. Overall, the analyses highlight the potential of the analogue as a powerful diagnostic tool for model deficiencies and its complementarity to an evaluation of heavy precipitation frequency based on model precipitation alone.

Temperature projections over Iran during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Francisco Bustos Usta ◽  
Maryam Teymouri ◽  
Uday Chatterjee ◽  
Bappaditya Koley
Keyword(s):  
First Century ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Unprecedented strength of Hadley circulation in 2015–2016 impacts on CO<sub>2</sub> interhemispheric difference

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorgen S. Frederiksen ◽  
Roger J. Francey
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Interhemispheric Difference ◽  
Eddy Transport ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. The extreme El Niño of 2015 and 2016 coincided with record global warming and unprecedented strength of the Hadley circulation with significant impact on mean interhemispheric (IH) transport of CO2 and on the difference in CO2 concentration between Mauna Loa and Cape Grim (Cmlo-cgo). The relative roles of eddy transport and mean advective transport on IH CO2 annual differences from 1992 through to 2016 is explored. Eddy transport processes occur mainly in boreal winter-spring when Cmlo-cgo is large; an important component is due to Rossby wave generation by the Himalayas and propagation through the equatorial Pacific westerly duct generating and transmitting turbulent kinetic energy. Mean transport occurs mainly in boreal summer-autumn and varies with the strength of the Hadley circulation. The timing of annual changes in Cmlo-cgo is found to coincide well with dynamical indices that we introduce to characterize the transports. During the unrivalled 2009–2010 step in Cmlo-cgo indices of eddy and mean transport reinforce. In contrast for the 2015 to 2016 change in Cmlo-cgo the mean transport counteracts the eddy transport and the record strength of the Hadley circulation determines the annual IH CO2 difference. The interaction of increasing global warming and extreme El Niños may have important implications for altering the balance between eddy and mean IH CO2 transfer.

Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The US Net Social Wage in the Early Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 581-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine A. Moos
Keyword(s):  
Social Reproduction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
First Century ◽  
Redistributive Policy ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Social Wage

This paper estimates the net social wage—the difference between labor benefits and labor taxation—from 1959 to 2012 in the United States using two different methodologies. During this period the average NSW1/GDP and NSW2/GDP ratio are 1.3 and −3.8 percent, respectively. This paper finds a deviation in the net social wage data starting in 2002, suggesting greater redistribution to US workers in the early twenty-first century than in the twentieth century. This paper argues that the increase in the US net social wage in the early twenty-first century is being caused by a combination of cyclical, structural, and secular factors. US redistributive policy should be understood as stabilizing and subsidizing the social reproduction of labor. JEL Classification: H5, E62, B5

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Daily Variability and Seasonal Cycle of Near-Surface Air Temperature over the Globe during the Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (24) ◽  
pp. 8537-8561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Chen ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Yaocun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases will not only raise Earth’s temperature but may also change its variability and seasonal cycle. Here CMIP5 model data are analyzed to quantify these changes in surface air temperature (Tas) and investigate the underlying processes. The models capture well the mean Tas seasonal cycle and variability and their changes in reanalysis, which shows decreasing Tas seasonal amplitudes and variability over the Arctic and Southern Ocean from 1979 to 2017. Daily Tas variability and seasonal amplitude are projected to decrease in the twenty-first century at high latitudes (except for boreal summer when Tas variability increases) but increase at low latitudes. The day of the maximum or minimum Tas shows large delays over high-latitude oceans, while it changes little at low latitudes. These Tas changes at high latitudes are linked to the polar amplification of warming and sea ice loss, which cause larger warming in winter than summer due to extra heating from the ocean during the cold season. Reduced sea ice cover also decreases its ability to cause Tas variations, contributing to the decreased Tas variability at high latitudes. Over low–midlatitude oceans, larger increases in surface evaporation in winter than summer (due to strong winter winds, strengthened winter winds in the Southern Hemisphere, and increased winter surface humidity gradients over the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes), coupled with strong ocean mixing in winter, lead to smaller surface warming in winter than summer and thus increased seasonal amplitudes there. These changes result in narrower (wider) Tas distributions over the high (low) latitudes, which may have important implications for other related fields.

How Often Will It Rain?

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 4801-4818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Sun ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Robert W. Portmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (a low projection), A1B (a medium projection), and A2 (a high projection) during the twenty-first century, all the models consistently show a shift toward more intense and extreme precipitation for the globe as a whole and over various regions. For both SRES B1 and A2, most models show decreased daily precipitation frequency and all the models show increased daily precipitation intensity. The multimodel averaged percentage increase in the precipitation intensity (2.0% K−1) is larger than the magnitude of the precipitation frequency decrease (−0.7% K−1). However, the shift in precipitation frequency distribution toward extremes results in large increases in very heavy precipitation events (&gt;50 mm day−1), so that for very heavy precipitation, the percentage increase in frequency is much larger than the increase in intensity (31.2% versus 2.4%). The climate model projected increases in daily precipitation intensity are, however, smaller than that based on simple thermodynamics (∼7% K−1). Multimodel ensemble means show that precipitation amount increases during the twenty-first century over high latitudes, as well as over currently wet regions in low- and midlatitudes more than other regions. This increase mostly results from a combination of increased frequency and intensity. Over the dry regions in the subtropics, the precipitation amount generally declines because of decreases in both frequency and intensity. This indicates that wet regions may get wetter and dry regions may become drier mostly because of a simultaneous increase (decrease) of precipitation frequency and intensity.

Heavy precipitation events over the Euro-Mediterranean region in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 595-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
Matteo Zampieri ◽  
Antonio Navarra
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Precipitation Events
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