scholarly journals A New Index for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 6439-6455 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Duchez ◽  
J. J.-M. Hirschi ◽  
S. A. Cunningham ◽  
A. T. Blaker ◽  
H. L. Bryden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Current Estimate ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Sverdrup Transport

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has received considerable attention, motivated by its major role in the global climate system. Observations of AMOC strength at 26°N made by the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) array provide the best current estimate of the state of the AMOC. The period 2004–11 when RAPID AMOC is available is too short to assess decadal variability of the AMOC. This modeling study introduces a new AMOC index (called AMOCSV) at 26°N that combines the Florida Straits transport, the Ekman transport, and the southward geostrophic Sverdrup transport. The main hypothesis in this study is that the upper midocean geostrophic transport calculated using the RAPID array is also wind-driven and can be approximated by the geostrophic Sverdrup transport at interannual and longer time scales. This index is expected to reflect variations in the AMOC at interannual to decadal time scales. This estimate of the surface branch of the AMOC can be constructed as long as reliable measurements are available for the Gulf Stream and for wind stress. To test the reliability of the AMOCSV on interannual and longer time scales, two different numerical simulations are used: a forced and a coupled simulation. Using these simulations the AMOCSV captures a substantial fraction of the AMOC variability and is in good agreement with the AMOC transport at 26°N on both interannual and decadal time scales. These results indicate that it might be possible to extend the observation-based AMOC at 26°N back to the 1980s.

scholarly journals Intrinsic Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at Interannual-to-Multidecadal Time Scales

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1929-1946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy Grégorio ◽  
Thierry Penduff ◽  
Guillaume Sérazin ◽  
Jean-Marc Molines ◽  
Bernard Barnier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Intrinsic Variability ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Spectral Peaks ◽  
Meridional Overturning

AbstractThe low-frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated from 2, ¼°, and ° global ocean–sea ice simulations, with a specific focus on its internally generated (i.e., “intrinsic”) component. A 327-yr climatological ¼° simulation, driven by a repeated seasonal cycle (i.e., a forcing devoid of interannual time scales), is shown to spontaneously generate a significant fraction R of the interannual-to-decadal AMOC variance obtained in a 50-yr “fully forced” hindcast (with reanalyzed atmospheric forcing including interannual time scales). This intrinsic variance fraction R slightly depends on whether AMOCs are computed in geopotential or density coordinates, and on the period considered in the climatological simulation, but the following features are quite robust when mesoscale eddies are simulated (at both ¼° and ° resolutions); R barely exceeds 5%–10% in the subpolar gyre but reaches 30%–50% at 34°S, up to 20%–40% near 25°N, and 40%–60% near the Gulf Stream. About 25% of the meridional heat transport interannual variability is attributed to intrinsic processes at 34°S and near the Gulf Stream. Fourier and wavelet spectra, built from the 327-yr ¼° climatological simulation, further indicate that spectral peaks of intrinsic AMOC variability (i) are found at specific frequencies ranging from interannual to multidecadal, (ii) often extend over the whole meridional scale of gyres, (iii) stochastically change throughout these 327 yr, and (iv) sometimes match the spectral peaks found in the fully forced hindcast in the North Atlantic. Intrinsic AMOC variability is also detected at multidecadal time scales, with a marked meridional coherence between 35°S and 25°N (15–30 yr periods) and throughout the whole basin (50–90-yr periods).

scholarly journals Regional Patterns of Sea Level Change Related to Interannual Variability and Multidecadal Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation*

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (15) ◽  
pp. 4243-4254 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Lorbacher ◽  
J. Dengg ◽  
C. W. Böning ◽  
A. Biastoch
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract Some studies of ocean climate model experiments suggest that regional changes in dynamic sea level could provide a valuable indicator of trends in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). This paper describes the use of a sequence of global ocean–ice model experiments to show that the diagnosed patterns of sea surface height (SSH) anomalies associated with changes in the MOC in the North Atlantic (NA) depend critically on the time scales of interest. Model hindcast simulations for 1958–2004 reproduce the observed pattern of SSH variability with extrema occurring along the Gulf Stream (GS) and in the subpolar gyre (SPG), but they also show that the pattern is primarily related to the wind-driven variability of MOC and gyre circulation on interannual time scales; it is reflected also in the leading EOF of SSH variability over the NA Ocean, as described in previous studies. The pattern, however, is not useful as a “fingerprint” of longer-term changes in the MOC: as shown with a companion experiment, a multidecadal, gradual decline in the MOC [of 5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) over 5 decades] induces a much broader, basin-scale SSH rise over the mid-to-high-latitude NA, with amplitudes of 20 cm. The detectability of such a trend is low along the GS since low-frequency SSH changes are effectively masked here by strong variability on shorter time scales. More favorable signal-to-noise ratios are found in the SPG and the eastern NA, where a MOC trend of 0.1 Sv yr−1 would leave a significant imprint in SSH already after about 20 years.

scholarly journals Seasonal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5678-5698 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Kanzow ◽  
S. A. Cunningham ◽  
W. E. Johns ◽  
J. J-M. Hirschi ◽  
J. Marotzke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Wind Stress Curl ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) makes the strongest oceanic contribution to the meridional redistribution of heat. Here, an observation-based, 48-month-long time series of the vertical structure and strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N is presented. From April 2004 to April 2008, the AMOC had a mean strength of 18.7 ± 2.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) with fluctuations of 4.8 Sv rms. The best guess of the peak-to-peak amplitude of the AMOC seasonal cycle is 6.7 Sv, with a maximum strength in autumn and a minimum in spring. While seasonality in the AMOC was commonly thought to be dominated by the northward Ekman transport, this study reveals that fluctuations of the geostrophic midocean and Gulf Stream transports of 2.2 and 1.7 Sv rms, respectively, are substantially larger than those of the Ekman component (1.2 Sv rms). A simple model based on linear dynamics suggests that the seasonal cycle is dominated by wind stress curl forcing at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. Seasonal geostrophic AMOC anomalies might represent an important and previously underestimated component of meridional transport and storage of heat in the subtropical North Atlantic. There is evidence that the seasonal cycle observed here is representative of much longer intervals. Previously, hydrographic snapshot estimates between 1957 and 2004 had suggested a long-term decline of the AMOC by 8 Sv. This study suggests that aliasing of seasonal AMOC anomalies might have accounted for a large part of the inferred slowdown.

A New Pacific Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon Hermanson ◽  
Doug Smith ◽  
Nick Dunstone ◽  
Rosie Eade
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Southern Us ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Meridional Overturning

<p>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26N has been measured since 2004 by the RAPID-MOCHA array. On a multi-year timescale it shows a decline with signs of a recovery since around 2012. This variability is likely to be part of longer decadal variability. We examine here the decadal variability of the AMOC and its drivers in a coupled model run nudged to observations from 1960-2017. Temperature and winds are nudged throughout the atmosphere and potential temperature and salinity are nudged in the ocean, but the ocean velocities are allowed to vary freely. We nudge an ensemble of 10 ocean analyses into the ocean model to get an ensemble of responses, the mean of which reproduces the observed AMOC. We use these ocean-atmosphere re-analyses to study the drivers of the AMOC. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is well known to have an impact on the AMOC and is an important driver here. We find that the tropical Pacific also has a strong impact on the subtropical AMOC on multi-annual to decadal timescales. Together these two factors can explain more than half of all variability of the AMOC at 26N through wind forcing associated with Rossby waves and western boundary waves. This Pacific impact, not reported on before, is from windstress curl anomalies close to the East Coast of the southern US due to changes in the Pacific storm track and the Walker Circulation. As both the NAO and tropical Pacific variability is associated with solar and volcanic forcing, it is possible that solar and volcanic forcing are important for multi-annual to multi-decadal AMOC variability. We use observations of the NAO and tropical Pacific to reconstruct the AMOC from 1870 to present day and predict a continued recovery in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Get Its Predictability from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (14) ◽  
pp. 5267-5280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie Trenary ◽  
Timothy DelSole
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Optimization Technique ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Statistical Optimization ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract This paper investigates the predictive relation between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation across different climate models. Three overturning patterns that are significantly coupled to the AMO on interannual time scales across all climate models are identified using a statistical optimization technique. Including these structures in an autoregressive model extends AMO predictability by 2–9 years, relative to an autoregressive model without these structures.

scholarly journals Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012

Ocean Science ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Smeed ◽  
G. D. McCarthy ◽  
S. A. Cunningham ◽  
E. Frajka-Williams ◽  
D. Rayner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic Deep Water ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Southward Flow

Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable-based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April 2008 to March 2012, the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the southward flow above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of lower North Atlantic deep water below 3000 m. The transport of lower North Atlantic deep water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

scholarly journals Links between the Southern Annular Mode and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Climate Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 624-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Marini ◽  
Claude Frankignoul ◽  
Juliette Mignot
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The links between the atmospheric southern annular mode (SAM), the Southern Ocean, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at interannual to multidecadal time scales are investigated in a 500-yr control integration of the L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL CM4) climate model. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, as described by its transport through the Drake Passage, is well correlated with the SAM at the yearly time scale, reflecting that an intensification of the westerlies south of 45°S leads to its acceleration. Also in phase with a positive SAM, the global meridional overturning circulation is modified in the Southern Hemisphere, primarily reflecting a forced barotropic response. In the model, the AMOC and the SAM are linked at several time scales. An intensification of the AMOC lags a positive SAM by about 8 yr. This is due to a correlation between the SAM and the atmospheric circulation in the northern North Atlantic that reflects a symmetric ENSO influence on the two hemispheres, as well as an independent, delayed interhemispheric link driven by the SAM. Both effects lead to an intensification of the subpolar gyre and, by salinity advection, increased deep convection and a stronger AMOC. A slower oceanic link between the SAM and the AMOC is found at a multidecadal time scale. Salinity anomalies generated by the SAM enter the South Atlantic from the Drake Passage and, more importantly, the Indian Ocean; they propagate northward, eventually reaching the northern North Atlantic where, for a positive SAM, they decrease the vertical stratification and thus increase the AMOC.

Wind-Driven Seasonal Cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 1541-1562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Zhao ◽  
William Johns
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The dynamical processes governing the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are studied using a variety of models, ranging from a simple forced Rossby wave model to an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model. The AMOC variability is decomposed into Ekman and geostrophic transport components, which reveal that the seasonality of the AMOC is determined by both components in the extratropics and dominated by the Ekman transport in the tropics. The physics governing the seasonal fluctuations of the AMOC are explored in detail at three latitudes (26.5°N, 6°N, and 34.5°S). While the Ekman transport is directly related to zonal wind stress seasonality, the comparison between different numerical models shows that the geostrophic transport involves a complex oceanic adjustment to the wind forcing. The oceanic adjustment is further evaluated by separating the zonally integrated geostrophic transport into eastern and western boundary currents and interior flows. The results indicate that the seasonal AMOC cycle in the extratropics is controlled mainly by local boundary effects, where either the western or eastern boundary can be dominant at different latitudes, while in the northern tropics it is the interior flow and its lagged compensation by the western boundary current that determine the seasonal AMOC variability.

scholarly journals Observed decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 2004 to 2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1619-1645 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Smeed ◽  
G. McCarthy ◽  
S. A. Cunningham ◽  
E. Frajka-Williams ◽  
D. Rayner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic Deep Water ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Southward Flow

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April~2008 to March 2012 the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the subtropical gyre above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water below 3000 m. The transport of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

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