scholarly journals An Investigation into the Impact of using Various Techniques to Estimate Arctic Surface Air Temperature Anomalies*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1743-1763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma M. A. Dodd ◽  
Christopher J. Merchant ◽  
Nick A. Rayner ◽  
Colin P. Morice
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean Square Errors

Abstract Time series of global and regional mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice was investigated using reanalysis data as a test bed. Techniques that interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than noninterpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies, and simple kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Noninterpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979–2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.

scholarly journals Seasonally changing contribution of sea ice and snow cover to uncertainty in multi-decadal Eurasian surface air temperature trends based on CESM simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaomin Ding ◽  
Renguang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Northern Siberia ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of sea ice and snow changes on surface air temperature (SAT) trends on the multidecadal time scale over the mid- and high-latitudes of Eurasia during boreal autumn, winter and spring based on a 30-member ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A dynamical adjustment method is used to remove the internal component of circulation-induced SAT trends. The leading mode of dynamically adjusted SAT trends is featured by same-sign anomalies extending from northern Europe to central Siberia and to the Russian Far East, respectively, during boreal spring and autumn, and confined to western Siberia during winter. The internally generated component of sea ice concentration trends over the Barents-Kara Seas contributes to the differences in the thermodynamic component of internal SAT trends across the ensemble over adjacent northern Siberia during all the three seasons. The sea ice effect is largest in autumn and smallest in winter. Eurasian snow changes contribute to the spread in dynamically adjusted SAT trends as well around the periphery of snow covered region by modulating surface heat flux changes. The snow effect is identified over northeast Europe-western Siberia in autumn, north of the Caspian Sea in winter, and over eastern Europe-northern Siberia in spring. The effects of sea ice and snow on the SAT trends are realized mainly by modulating upward shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes.

scholarly journals Mechanism of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Evolution and Arctic Amplification

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Yul Kim ◽  
Benjamin D. Hamlington ◽  
Hanna Na ◽  
Jinju Kim
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract. Sea ice melting is proposed as a primary reason for the Artic amplification, although physical mechanism of the Arctic amplification and its connection with sea ice melting is still in debate. In the present study, monthly ERA-interim reanalysis data are analyzed via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis to understand the seasonal mechanism of sea ice melting in the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic amplification. While sea ice melting is widespread over much of the perimeter of the Arctic Ocean in summer, sea ice remains to be thin in winter only in the Barents-Kara Seas. Excessive turbulent heat flux through the sea surface exposed to air due to sea ice melting warms the atmospheric column. Warmer air increases the downward longwave radiation and subsequently surface air temperature, which facilitates sea surface remains to be ice free. A 1 % reduction in sea ice concentration in winter leads to ~ 0.76 W m−2 increase in upward heat flux, ~ 0.07 K increase in 850 hPa air temperature, ~ 0.97 W m−2 increase in downward longwave radiation, and ~ 0.26 K increase in surface air temperature. This positive feedback mechanism is not clearly observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, since sea ice refreezes in late fall (November) before excessive turbulent heat flux is available for warming the atmospheric column in winter. A detailed seasonal heat budget is presented in order to understand specific differences between the Barents-Kara Seas and Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Daily Variability and Seasonal Cycle of Near-Surface Air Temperature over the Globe during the Twenty-First Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (24) ◽  
pp. 8537-8561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Chen ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Yaocun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases will not only raise Earth’s temperature but may also change its variability and seasonal cycle. Here CMIP5 model data are analyzed to quantify these changes in surface air temperature (Tas) and investigate the underlying processes. The models capture well the mean Tas seasonal cycle and variability and their changes in reanalysis, which shows decreasing Tas seasonal amplitudes and variability over the Arctic and Southern Ocean from 1979 to 2017. Daily Tas variability and seasonal amplitude are projected to decrease in the twenty-first century at high latitudes (except for boreal summer when Tas variability increases) but increase at low latitudes. The day of the maximum or minimum Tas shows large delays over high-latitude oceans, while it changes little at low latitudes. These Tas changes at high latitudes are linked to the polar amplification of warming and sea ice loss, which cause larger warming in winter than summer due to extra heating from the ocean during the cold season. Reduced sea ice cover also decreases its ability to cause Tas variations, contributing to the decreased Tas variability at high latitudes. Over low–midlatitude oceans, larger increases in surface evaporation in winter than summer (due to strong winter winds, strengthened winter winds in the Southern Hemisphere, and increased winter surface humidity gradients over the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes), coupled with strong ocean mixing in winter, lead to smaller surface warming in winter than summer and thus increased seasonal amplitudes there. These changes result in narrower (wider) Tas distributions over the high (low) latitudes, which may have important implications for other related fields.

scholarly journals Fate of sea ice in the 'New Arctic': A database of daily Lagrangian Arctic sea ice parcel drift tracks with coincident ice and atmospheric conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Horvath ◽  
Linette Boisvert ◽  
Chelsea Parker ◽  
Melinda Webster ◽  
Patrick Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Mass Balance ◽  
Temperature And Pressure

Abstract. Since the early 2000s, sea ice has experienced an increased rate of decline in thickness and extent and transitioned to a seasonal ice cover. This shift to thinner, seasonal ice in the 'New Arctic' is accompanied by a reshuffling of energy flows at the surface. Understanding the magnitude and nature of this reshuffling and the feedbacks therein remains limited. A novel database is presented that combines satellite observations, model output, and reanalysis data with daily sea ice parcel drift tracks produced in a Lagrangian framework. This dataset consists of daily time series of sea ice parcel locations, sea ice and snow conditions, and atmospheric states. Building on previous work, this dataset includes remotely sensed radiative and turbulent fluxes from which the surface energy budget can be calculated. Additionally, flags indicate when sea ice parcels travel within cyclones, recording distance and direction from the cyclone center. The database drift track was evaluated by comparison with sea ice mass balance buoys. Results show ice parcels generally remain within 100km of the corresponding buoy, with a mean distance of 82.6 km and median distance of 54 km. The sea ice mass balance buoys also provide recordings of sea ice thickness, snow depth, and air temperature and pressure which were compared to this database. Ice thickness and snow depth typically are less accurate than air temperature and pressure due to the high spatial variability of the former two quantities when compared to a point measurement. The correlations between the ice parcel and buoy data are high, which highlights the accuracy of this Lagrangian database in capturing the seasonal changes and evolution of sea ice. This database has multiple applications for the scientific community; it can be used to study the processes that influence individual sea ice parcel time series, or to explore generalized summary statistics and trends across the Arctic. Applications such as these may shed light on the atmosphere-snow-sea ice interactions in the changing Arctic environment.

scholarly journals Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Jakob Belter ◽  
Thomas Krumpen ◽  
Luisa von Albedyll ◽  
Tatiana A. Alekseeva ◽  
Sergei V. Frolov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Ice Growth ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Transpolar Drift ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Changes in Arctic sea ice thickness are the result of complex interactions of the dynamic and variable ice cover with atmosphere and ocean. Most of the sea ice exits the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, which is why long-term measurements of ice thickness at the end of the Transpolar Drift provide insight into the integrated signals of thermodynamic and dynamic influences along the pathways of Arctic sea ice. We present an updated time series of extensive ice thickness surveys carried out at the end of the Transpolar Drift between 2001 and 2020. Overall, we see a more than 20 % thinning of modal ice thickness since 2001. A comparison with first preliminary results from the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) shows that the modal summer thickness of the MOSAiC floe and its wider vicinity are consistent with measurements from previous years. By combining this unique time series with the Lagrangian sea ice tracking tool, ICETrack, and a simple thermodynamic sea ice growth model, we link the observed interannual ice thickness variability north of Fram Strait to increased drift speeds along the Transpolar Drift and the consequential variations in sea ice age and number of freezing degree days. We also show that the increased influence of upward-directed ocean heat flux in the eastern marginal ice zones, termed Atlantification, is not only responsible for sea ice thinning in and around the Laptev Sea, but also that the induced thickness anomalies persist beyond the Russian shelves and are potentially still measurable at the end of the Transpolar Drift after more than a year. With a tendency towards an even faster Transpolar Drift, winter sea ice growth will have less time to compensate the impact of Atlantification on sea ice growth in the eastern marginal ice zone, which will increasingly be felt in other parts of the sea ice covered Arctic.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of enhanced BrO and its relation to meteorological parameters in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (20) ◽  
pp. 12285-12312
Author(s):  
Sora Seo ◽  
Andreas Richter ◽  
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt ◽  
Ilias Bougoudis ◽  
John Philip Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract. Satellite observations have shown large areas of elevated bromine monoxide (BrO) covering several thousand square kilometres over the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions in polar spring. These enhancements of total BrO columns result from increases in stratospheric or tropospheric bromine amounts or both, and their occurrence may be related to local meteorological conditions. In this study, the spatial distribution of the occurrence of total BrO column enhancements and the associated changes in meteorological parameters are investigated in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions using 10 years of Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) measurements and meteorological model data. Statistical analysis of the data presents clear differences in the meteorological conditions between the 10-year mean and episodes of enhanced total BrO columns in both polar sea ice regions. These differences show pronounced spatial patterns. In general, atmospheric low pressure, cold surface air temperature, high surface-level wind speed, and low tropopause heights were found during periods of enhanced total BrO columns. In addition, spatial patterns of prevailing wind directions related to the BrO enhancements are identified in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions. The relevance of the different meteorological parameters on the total BrO column is evaluated based on a Spearman rank correlation analysis, finding that tropopause height and surface air temperature have the largest correlations with the total BrO vertical column density. Our results demonstrate that specific meteorological parameters can have a major impact on the BrO enhancement in some areas, but in general, multiple meteorological parameters interact with each other in their influence on BrO columns.

scholarly journals The Impact of Milankovitch Solar Radiation Variations on Sea-Ice and Air Temperature in a Coupled Energy-Balance Climate-Sea-Ice Model

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 144-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Shapiro Ledley
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

The sensitivity of thermodynamically-varying sea-ice and surface air temperature to variations in solar radiation on the 104 to 105 time scales is examined in this study. Model simulation results show the mean annual sea-ice thickness is very sensitive to the magnitude of midsummer solar radiation. During periods of high midsummer solar radiation between 115 ka B.P. and the present the sea ice is thinner, producing larger summer time leads and longer periods of open ocean. This has an effect on the mean annual sea-ice thickness, but not on the mean annual air temperature. However, the changes in sea ice are accompanied by similar variations in the summer surface air temperature, which are the result of the variations in the solar radiation and meridional energy transport.

scholarly journals The Impact of Milankovitch Solar Radiation Variations on Sea-Ice and Air Temperature in a Coupled Energy-Balance Climate-Sea-Ice Model

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 144-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Shapiro Ledley
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

The sensitivity of thermodynamically-varying sea-ice and surface air temperature to variations in solar radiation on the 104 to 105 time scales is examined in this study. Model simulation results show the mean annual sea-ice thickness is very sensitive to the magnitude of midsummer solar radiation. During periods of high midsummer solar radiation between 115 ka B.P. and the present the sea ice is thinner, producing larger summer time leads and longer periods of open ocean. This has an effect on the mean annual sea-ice thickness, but not on the mean annual air temperature. However, the changes in sea ice are accompanied by similar variations in the summer surface air temperature, which are the result of the variations in the solar radiation and meridional energy transport.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of enhanced BrO and its relation to meteorological parameters in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice regions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sora Seo ◽  
Andreas Richter ◽  
Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt ◽  
Ilias Bougoudis ◽  
John Philip Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract. Satellite observations have shown large areas of elevated BrO covering several thousand km2 over the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice region in polar spring. These enhancements of total BrO columns result from increases in stratospheric or tropospheric bromine amounts or both, and their occurrence may be related to local meteorological conditions. In this study, the spatial distribution of the occurrence of total BrO column enhancements and the associated changes in meteorological parameters are investigated in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions using 10 years of GOME-2 measurements in combination with meteorological model data. Statistical analysis of the data presents clear differences in the meteorological conditions between the 10 year mean and episodes of enhanced total BrO columns in both polar sea ice regions. These differences show pronounced spatial patterns. In general, atmospheric low pressure, cold surface air temperature, high surface-level wind speed and low tropopause heights were found during periods of enhanced total BrO columns. In addition, spatial patterns of prevailing wind directions related to the BrO enhancements are identified in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice region. The relevance of the different meteorological parameters for the total BrO column is evaluated based on a Spearman rank correlation analysis, finding that tropopause height and surface air temperature have the largest correlations with the total BrO vertical column density. Our results demonstrate that specific meteorological parameters can have a major impact on the BrO enhancement in some areas, but in general, multiple meteorological parameters interact with each other in their influence on BrO columns.

scholarly journals An energy budget approach to understand the Arctic warming during the Last Interglacial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Sicard ◽  
Masa Kageyama ◽  
Sylvie Charbit ◽  
Pascale Braconnot ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Madeleine
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Last Interglacial period (129–116 ka BP) is characterized by a strong orbital forcing which leads to a different seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation compared to the pre-industrial period. In particular, these changes amplify the seasonality of the insolation in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Here, we investigate the Arctic climate response to this forcing by comparing the CMIP6 lig127k and pi-Control simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. Using an energy budget framework, we analyse the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and continents. In summer, the insolation anomaly reaches its maximum and causes a near-surface air temperature rise of 3.2 °C over the Arctic region. This warming is primarily due to a strong positive surface downwelling shortwave radiation anomaly over continental surfaces, followed by large heat transfers from the continents back to the atmosphere. The surface layers of the Arctic Ocean also receives more energy, but in smaller quantity than the continents due to a cloud negative feedback. Furthermore, while heat exchanges from the continental surfaces towards the atmosphere are strengthened, the ocean absorbs and stores the heat excess due to a decline in sea ice cover. However, the maximum near-surface air temperature anomaly does not peak in summer like insolation, but occurs in autumn with a temperature increase of 4.0 °C relative to the pre-industrial period. This strong warming is driven by a positive anomaly of longwave radiations over the Arctic ocean enhanced by a positive cloud feedback. It is also favoured by the summer and autumn Arctic sea ice retreat (−1.9 × 106 and −3.4 × 106 km2 respectively), which exposes the warm oceanic surface and allows heat stored by the ocean in summer and water vapour to be released. This study highlights the crucial role of the sea ice cover variations, the Arctic ocean, as well as changes in polar clouds optical properties on the Last Interglacial Arctic warming.

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