Significant variability of structure and predictability of Arctic Ocean surface pathways affects basin-wide connectivity

The Arctic Ocean is of central importance for the global climate and ecosystem. It is a region undergoing rapid climate change, with a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over recent decades. Surface advective pathways connect the transport of nutrients, freshwater, carbon and contaminants with their sources and sinks. Pathways of drifting material are deformed under velocity strain, due to atmosphere-ocean-ice coupling. Deformation is largest at fine space- and time-scales and is associated with a loss of potential predictability, analogous to weather often becoming unpredictable as synoptic-scale eddies interact and deform. However, neither satellite observations nor climate model projections resolve fine-scale ocean velocity structure. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model hindcast and coarser satellite-derived ice velocities, to show: that ensemble-mean pathways within the Transpolar Drift during 2004–14 have large interannual variability and that both saddle-like flow structures and the presence of fine-scale velocity gradients are important for basin-wide connectivity and crossing time, pathway bifurcation, predictability and dispersion.

Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift summer sea ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification

Changes in Arctic sea ice thickness are the result of complex interactions of the dynamic and variable ice cover with atmosphere and ocean. Most of the sea ice exiting the Arctic Ocean does so through Fram Strait, which is why long-term measurements of ice thickness at the end of the Transpolar Drift provide insight into the integrated signals of thermodynamic and dynamic influences along the pathways of Arctic sea ice. We present an updated summer (July–August) time series of extensive ice thickness surveys carried out at the end of the Transpolar Drift between 2001 and 2020. Overall, we see a more than 20 % thinning of modal ice thickness since 2001. A comparison of this time series with first preliminary results from the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) shows that the modal summer thickness of the MOSAiC floe and its wider vicinity are consistent with measurements from previous years at the end of the Transpolar Drift. By combining this unique time series with the Lagrangian sea ice tracking tool, ICETrack, and a simple thermodynamic sea ice growth model, we link the observed interannual ice thickness variability north of Fram Strait to increased drift speeds along the Transpolar Drift and the consequential variations in sea ice age. We also show that the increased influence of upward-directed ocean heat flux in the eastern marginal ice zones, termed Atlantification, is not only responsible for sea ice thinning in and around the Laptev Sea but also that the induced thickness anomalies persist beyond the Russian shelves and are potentially still measurable at the end of the Transpolar Drift after more than a year. With a tendency towards an even faster Transpolar Drift, winter sea ice growth will have less time to compensate for the impact processes, such as Atlantification, have on sea ice thickness in the eastern marginal ice zone, which will increasingly be felt in other parts of the sea-ice-covered Arctic.

Separating individual contributions of major Siberian rivers in the Transpolar Drift of the Arctic Ocean

The Siberian rivers supply large amounts of freshwater and terrestrial derived material to the Arctic Ocean. Although riverine freshwater and constituents have been identified in the central Arctic Ocean, the individual contributions of the Siberian rivers to and their spatiotemporal distributions in the Transpolar Drift (TPD), the major wind-driven current in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean, are unknown. Determining the influence of individual Siberian rivers downstream the TPD, however, is critical to forecast responses in polar and sub-polar hydrography and biogeochemistry to the anticipated individual changes in river discharge and freshwater composition. Here, we identify the contributions from the largest Siberian river systems, the Lena and Yenisei/Ob, in the TPD using dissolved neodymium isotopes and rare earth element concentrations. We further demonstrate their vertical and lateral separation that is likely due to distinct temporal emplacements of Lena and Yenisei/Ob waters in the TPD as well as prior mixing of Yenisei/Ob water with ambient waters.

The Western Eurasian Basin Halocline in 2017: Insights From Autonomous NO Measurements and the Mercator Physical System

<div> <div> <div> <p>We present the first sensor‐based profiles of the quasi‐conservative NO parameter obtained with an autonomous ice‐tethered buoy in the Arctic Ocean. Data documented the halocline in the Transpolar Drift and Nansen Basin in 2017. A NO minimum was found in the Nansen Basin on a σ‐horizon of 27.8 kg·m<sup>−3 </sup>corresponding to the lower halocline, while a lower NO minimum of 380 μM straddled the 27.4 σ‐horizon and marked the cold halocline in the Transpolar Drift. Back trajectories of water parcels encountered along the buoy drift were computed using the Mercator physical system. They suggested that waters within the NO minimum at 27.4 kg·m<sup>−3 </sup>could be traced back to the East Siberian Sea continental. These trajectories conformed with the prevailing positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The base of the lower halocline, at the 27.85 σ‐horizon, corresponded to the density attained in the deepest winter mixed layer north of Svalbard and cyclonically slowly advected from the slope into the central Nansen Basin. The 27.85 σ‐horizon is associated with an absolute salinity of 34.9 g·kg<sup>−1</sup>, a significantly more saline level than the 34.3 psu isohaline commonly used to identify the base of the lower halocline. This denser and more saline level is in accordance with the deeper winter mixed layers observed on the slopes of Nansen Basin in the last 10 years. A combination of simulations and NO parameter estimates provided valuable insights into the structure, source, and strength of the Arctic halocline.</p> </div> </div> </div>

Seasonality of sea ice deformation at MOSAiC

<p>Sea ice drift and deformation shapes the ice cover of the polar oceans, lead opening modulating heat transfer across the ice pack and deformation driven roughness changes affecting momentum transfer from winds and currents. Yet we do not fully understand the seasonal evolution of sea ice deformation. An array of >95 GPS drifting buoys and 11 ice stations was deployed as a Distributed Network around the MOSAiC Central Observatory, capturing scales of sea ice motion between hundreds of meters to up to 200 kilometers. The array drifted across the Arctic in the transpolar drift in less than a year, with an anomalous east-west sea level pressure gradient driving the fast drift. The buoys monitored horizontal deformation of the pack ice from freeze up north of the Laptev Sea to melt in the Greenland Sea. The deformation responds to inertial motion during the freeze up transition to a consolidated ice pack. The fractal dimension of the total deformation changes throughout the year. At smaller scales of about 10 km deformation becomes whiter during the growth season, once the ice pack is consolidated to the coast. There iis an increase in episodic events at the largest scales during the periods the ice pack is consolidated and where it becomes more tidally active during transition through Fram Strait. The MOSAiC distributed network brings improved understanding in the transition of sea ice deformation from freedrift to pack ice, and the response of the ice to changing momentum transfer from the wind and ocean across the Transpolar Drift. The MOSAiC campaign provides unprecedented information about the atmospheric structure and spatial distribution of winds, as well as near surface currents, from which we can deduce the affect of sub-mesoscale deformation in the wind field on the horizontal ice deformation. </p>

Changes in Atlantic Water circulation patterns and volume transports North of Svalbard over the last 12 years (2008-2020)

<p>Atlantic Water (AW) enters the Arctic through Fram Strait as the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). When reaching the south of Yermak Plateau, the WSC splits into the Svalbard, Yermak Pass and Yermak Branches. Downstream of Yermak Plateau, AW pathways remain unclear and uncertainties persist on how AW branches eventually merge and contribute to the boundary current along the continental slope. We took advantage of the good performance of the 1/12° Mercator Ocean model in the Western Nansen Basin (WNB) to examine the AW circulation and volume transports in the area. The model showed that the circulation changed in 2008-2020. The Yermak Branch strengthened over the northern Yermak Plateau, feeding the Return Yermak Branch along the eastern flank of the Plateau. West of Yermak Plateau, the Transpolar Drift likely shifted westward while AW recirculations progressed further north. Downstream of the Yermak Plateau, an offshore current developed above the 3800 m isobath, fed by waters from the Yermak Plateau tip. East of 18°E, enhanced mesoscale activity from the boundary current injected additional AW basin-ward, further contributing to the offshore circulation. A recurrent anticyclonic circulation in Sofia Deep developed, which also occasionally fed the western part of the offshore flow. The intensification of the circulation coincided with an overall warming in the upper WNB (0-1000 m), consistent with the progression of AW. This regional description of the changing circulation provides a background for the interpretation of upcoming observations.</p>

Fram Strait: Possible key to saving Arctic ice

We present a modeling study of the sensitivity of present-day Arctic climate dynamics to increases in sea ice albedo in the Fram Strait. Our analysis reveals a new mechanism whereby enhancing the albedo in the Fram Strait triggers a transition of the regional atmospheric dynamics to a negative Arctic Dipole Anomaly phase. This causes an Arctic-wide ice circulation regime, weakening Transpolar Drift and reducing Fram Strait ice export, leading to thickening of the multi-year ice pack. These findings advance our understanding of the key role that the Fram Strait plays in the Arctic climate and highlights a potential path to restoring Arctic sea ice.

Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification

Changes in Arctic sea ice thickness are the result of complex interactions of the dynamic and variable ice cover with atmosphere and ocean. Most of the sea ice exits the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, which is why long-term measurements of ice thickness at the end of the Transpolar Drift provide insight into the integrated signals of thermodynamic and dynamic influences along the pathways of Arctic sea ice. We present an updated time series of extensive ice thickness surveys carried out at the end of the Transpolar Drift between 2001 and 2020. Overall, we see a more than 20 % thinning of modal ice thickness since 2001. A comparison with first preliminary results from the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) shows that the modal summer thickness of the MOSAiC floe and its wider vicinity are consistent with measurements from previous years. By combining this unique time series with the Lagrangian sea ice tracking tool, ICETrack, and a simple thermodynamic sea ice growth model, we link the observed interannual ice thickness variability north of Fram Strait to increased drift speeds along the Transpolar Drift and the consequential variations in sea ice age and number of freezing degree days. We also show that the increased influence of upward-directed ocean heat flux in the eastern marginal ice zones, termed Atlantification, is not only responsible for sea ice thinning in and around the Laptev Sea, but also that the induced thickness anomalies persist beyond the Russian shelves and are potentially still measurable at the end of the Transpolar Drift after more than a year. With a tendency towards an even faster Transpolar Drift, winter sea ice growth will have less time to compensate the impact of Atlantification on sea ice growth in the eastern marginal ice zone, which will increasingly be felt in other parts of the sea ice covered Arctic.

Potential Vorticity Dynamics of the Arctic Halocline

An idealized two-layer shallow water model is applied to the study of the dynamics of the Arctic Ocean halocline. The model is forced by a surface stress distribution reflective of the observed wind stress pattern and ice motion and by an inflow representing the flow of Pacific Water through Bering Strait. The model reproduces the main elements of the halocline circulation: an anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre in the western basin (representing the Canada Basin), a cyclonic circulation in the eastern basin (representing the Eurasian Basin), and a Transpolar Drift between the two gyres directed from the upwind side of the basin to the downwind side of the basin. Analysis of the potential vorticity budget shows a basin-averaged balance primarily between potential vorticity input at the surface and dissipation at the lateral boundaries. However, advection is a leading-order term not only within the anticyclonic and cyclonic gyres but also between the gyres. This means that the eastern and western basins are dynamically connected through the advection of potential vorticity. Both eddy and mean fluxes play a role in connecting the regions of potential vorticity input at the surface with the opposite gyre and with the viscous boundary layers. These conclusions are based on a series of model runs in which forcing, topography, straits, and the Coriolis parameter were varied.