Anthropogenic Weakening of the Tropical Circulation: The Relative Roles of Direct CO2 Forcing and Sea Surface Temperature Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8728-8742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie He ◽  
Brian J. Soden
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Co2 Forcing ◽  
The Walker Circulation ◽  
Sea Warming

Abstract There is a lack of consensus on the physical mechanisms that drive the anthropogenic weakening of tropical circulation. This study investigates the relative roles of direct CO2 forcing, mean SST warming, and the pattern of SST change on the weakening of the tropical circulation using an ensemble of AMIP and aquaplanet simulations. In terms of the mean weakening of the tropical circulation, the SST warming dominates over the direct CO2 forcing through its control over the tropical mean hydrological cycle and tropospheric stratification. In terms of the spatial pattern of circulation weakening, however, the three forcing agents are all important contributors, especially over the ocean. The increasing CO2 weakens convection over ocean directly by stabilizing the lower troposphere and indirectly via the land–sea warming contrast. The mean SST warming drives strong weakening over the centers and edges of convective zones. The pattern of SST warming plays a crucial role on the spatial pattern of circulation weakening over the tropical Pacific. The anthropogenic weakening of the Walker circulation is mostly driven by the mean SST warming. Increasing CO2 strengthens the Walker circulation through its indirect effect on land–sea warming contrast. Changes in the upper-level velocity potential indicate that the pattern of SST warming does not weaken the Walker circulation despite being “El Niño–like.” A weakening caused by the mean SST warming also dominates changes in the Hadley circulation in the AMIP simulations. However, this weakening is not simulated in the Southern Hemisphere in coupled simulations.

scholarly journals Impact of Mountains on Tropical Circulation in Two Earth System Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 4149-4163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary Naiman ◽  
Paul J. Goodman ◽  
John P. Krasting ◽  
Sergey L. Malyshev ◽  
Joellen L. Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Pacific Basin ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Tropical Circulation ◽  
System Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
The Walker Circulation

Abstract Two state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) were used in an idealized experiment to explore the role of mountains in shaping Earth’s climate system. Similar to previous studies, removing mountains from both ESMs results in the winds becoming more zonal and weaker Indian and Asian monsoon circulations. However, there are also broad changes to the Walker circulation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Without orography, convection moves across the entire equatorial Indo-Pacific basin on interannual time scales. ENSO has a stronger amplitude, lower frequency, and increased regularity. A wider equatorial wind zone and changes to equatorial wind stress curl result in a colder cold tongue and a steeper equatorial thermocline across the Pacific basin during La Niña years. Anomalies associated with ENSO warm events are larger without mountains and have greater impact on the mean tropical climate than when mountains are present. Without mountains, the centennial-mean Pacific Walker circulation weakens in both models by approximately 45%, but the strength of the mean Hadley circulation changes by less than 2%. Changes in the Walker circulation in these experiments can be explained by the large spatial excursions of atmospheric deep convection on interannual time scales. These results suggest that mountains are an important control on the large-scale tropical circulation, impacting ENSO dynamics and the Walker circulation, but have little impact on the strength of the Hadley circulation.

scholarly journals Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. eaat8785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
Emanuel Gloor ◽  
Philippe Peylin ◽  
Roel J. W. Brienen ◽  
Jochen Schöngart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Anomalous Increase ◽  
Natural Factors ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Walker Circulation

The Amazon basin is the largest watershed on Earth. Although the variability of the Amazon hydrological cycle has been increasing since the late 1990s, its underlying causes have remained elusive. We use water levels in the Amazon River to quantify changes in extreme events and then analyze their cause. Despite continuing research emphasis on droughts, the largest change over recent decades is a marked increase in very severe floods. Increased flooding is linked to a strengthening of the Walker circulation, resulting from strong tropical Atlantic warming and tropical Pacific cooling. Atlantic warming due to combined anthropogenic and natural factors has contributed to enhance the change in atmospheric circulation. Whether this anomalous increase in flooding will last depends on the evolution of the tropical inter-ocean temperature difference.

Global Warming–Induced Changes in El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (24) ◽  
pp. 9050-9064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen-Qiang Zhou ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Xiao-Tong Zheng ◽  
Qinyu Liu ◽  
Hai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Pacific North American ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
The Mean

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces climate anomalies around the globe. Atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to investigate how ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns during boreal winter might change in response to global warming in the Pacific–North American sector. As models disagree on changes in the amplitude and spatial pattern of ENSO in response to global warming, for simplicity the same sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of ENSO is prescribed before and after the climate warming. In a warmer climate, precipitation anomalies intensify and move eastward over the equatorial Pacific during El Niño because the enhanced mean SST warming reduces the barrier to deep convection in the eastern basin. Associated with the eastward shift of tropical convective anomalies, the ENSO-forced Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern moves eastward and intensifies under the climate warming. By contrast, the PNA mode of atmospheric internal variability remains largely unchanged in pattern, suggesting the importance of tropical convection in shifting atmospheric teleconnections. As the ENSO-induced PNA pattern shifts eastward, rainfall anomalies are expected to intensify on the west coast of North America, and the El Niño–induced surface warming to expand eastward and occupy all of northern North America. The spatial pattern of the mean SST warming affects changes in ENSO teleconnections. The teleconnection changes are larger with patterned mean warming than in an idealized case where the spatially uniform warming is prescribed in the mean state. The results herein suggest that the eastward-shifted PNA pattern is a robust change to be expected in the future, independent of the uncertainty in changes of ENSO itself.

scholarly journals Changes in Zonal Surface Temperature Gradients and Walker Circulations in a Wide Range of Climates

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (17) ◽  
pp. 4757-4768 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy M. Merlis ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Temperature Gradients ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Asymmetric Component ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Walker Circulation

Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The asymmetry in the tropical climate is generated by an imposed ocean energy flux, which does not vary with climate. The range of climates is simulated by modifying the optical thickness of an idealized longwave absorber (representing greenhouse gases). The zonal surface temperature gradient in low latitudes generally decreases as the climate warms in the idealized GCM simulations. A scaling relationship based on a two-term balance in the surface energy budget accounts for the changes in the zonally asymmetric component of the GCM-simulated surface temperature. The Walker circulation weakens as the climate warms in the idealized simulations, as it does in comprehensive simulations of climate change. The wide range of climates allows a systematic test of energetic arguments that have been proposed to account for these changes in the tropical circulation. The analysis shows that a scaling estimate based on changes in the hydrological cycle (precipitation rate and saturation specific humidity) accounts for the simulated changes in the Walker circulation. However, it must be evaluated locally, with local precipitation rates. If global-mean quantities are used, the scaling estimate does not generally account for changes in the Walker circulation, and the extent to which it does is the result of compensating errors in changes in precipitation and saturation specific humidity that enter the scaling estimate.

scholarly journals Impact of Resolution on the Tropical Pacific Circulation in a Matrix of Coupled Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2541-2556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
A. Clayton ◽  
M.-E. Demory ◽  
J. Donners ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mean State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Results are presented from a matrix of coupled model integrations, using atmosphere resolutions of 135 and 90 km, and ocean resolutions of 1° and 1/3°, to study the impact of resolution on simulated climate. The mean state of the tropical Pacific is found to be improved in the models with a higher ocean resolution. Such an improved mean state arises from the development of tropical instability waves, which are poorly resolved at low resolution; these waves reduce the equatorial cold tongue bias. The improved ocean state also allows for a better simulation of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Several sensitivity studies have been performed to further understand the processes involved in the different component models. Significantly decreasing the horizontal momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the lower-resolution ocean has benefits for the mean tropical Pacific climate, but decreases model stability. Increasing the momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the higher-resolution ocean degrades the simulation toward that of the lower-resolution ocean. These results suggest that enhanced ocean model resolution can have important benefits for the climatology of both the atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled model, and that some of these benefits may be achievable at lower ocean resolution, if the model formulation allows.

scholarly journals Water vapor anomaly over the tropical western Pacific in El Niño winters from radiosonde and satellite observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minkang Du ◽  
Kaiming Huang ◽  
Shaodong Zhang ◽  
Chunming Huang ◽  
Yun Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Circulation Anomaly ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
The Walker Circulation

Abstract. Using radiosonde observations at five stations in the tropical western Pacific and reanalysis data for 15 years from 2005 to 2019, we report an extremely negative anomaly in atmospheric water vapor during the super El Niño winter of 2015/16, and compare the anomaly with that in the other three El Niño winters. Strong specific humidity anomaly is concentrated below 8 km of the troposphere with a peak at 2.5–3.5 km, and column integrated water vapor mass anomaly over the five radiosonde sites has a large negative correlation coefficient of −0.63 with oceanic Niño3.4 index, but with a lag of about 2–3 months. In general, the tropical circulation anomaly in the El Niño winter is characterized by divergence (convergence) in the lower troposphere over the tropical western (eastern) Pacific, thus the water vapor decreases over the tropical western Pacific as upward motion is suppressed. The variability of the Hadley circulation is quite small and has little influence on the observed water vapor anomaly. The anomaly of the Walker circulation makes a considerable contribution to the total anomaly in all the four El Niño winters, especially in the 2006/07 and 2015/16 eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events. The monsoon circulation shows a remarkable change from one to the other event, and its anomaly is large in the 2009/10 and 2018/19 central-Pacific (CP) El Niño winters and small in the two EP El Niño winters. The observed water vapor anomaly is caused mainly by the Walker circulation anomaly in the supper EP event of 2015/16 but by the monsoon circulation anomaly in the strong CP event of 2009/10. Owing to the anomalous decrease in upward transport of water vapor during the El Niño winter, less cloud amount and more outgoing longwave radiation over the five stations are clearly presented in satellite observation.

scholarly journals The ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon climate through the Last Millennium as simulated by the PMIP3

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charan Teja Tejavath ◽  
Karumuri Ashok ◽  
Supriyo Chakraborty ◽  
Rengaswamy Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. Using seven model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June–September) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (LM; CE 850–1849) with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA), after validation of the simulated current day climate and trends. We find that the above (below) LM-mean summer global temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively higher (lower) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to La Niñas. The models simulate higher (lower) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during the MWP (LIA). This is notwithstanding a strong simulated negative correlation between the timeseries of NINO3.4 index and that of the area-averaged ISMR, Interestingly, the percentage of strong El Niños (La Niñas) causing negative (positive) ISMR anomalies is higher in the LIA (MWP), a non-linearity that apparently is important for causing higher ISMR in the MWP. Distribution of simulated boreal summer velocity potential at 850 hPa during MWP in models, in general, shows a zone of anomalous convergence in the central tropical Pacific flanked by two zones of divergence, suggesting a westward shift in the Walker circulation as compared to the simulations for LM as well as and a majority of historical simulations, and current day observed signal. The anomalous divergence centre in the west also extends into the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in an anomalous convergence zone over India and therefore excess rainfall during the MWP as compared to the LM; the results are qualitative, given the inter-model spread.

scholarly journals An assessment of the factors determining rotifer assemblage in river-lake systems: the effects of seasonality and habitat

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Moacyr Serafim-Júnior ◽  
Gilmar Perbiche-Neves ◽  
Fabio Lansac-Toha
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
Aquatic Macrophytes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Natural Environments ◽  
Ecological Attributes ◽  
Lake System ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Lake Systems

Zooplankton exhibit several trends of variation in space and time, and these trends can be more evident in natural environments without anthropic perturbations. Examples of anthropic factors are climate change, eutrophication and construction of reservoirs. This study evaluated the influence of three factors – seasonality, type of environment and the presence of aquatic macrophytes – on various ecological attributes of rotifers in a river-lake system located in the Paraná River floodplain. Monthly samplings were conducted during 1993 and 1994. The mean species richness per sample was 60 species. The seasonality and the type of environment influenced the ecological attributes of rotifer assemblages, while the presence or absence of aquatic macrophytes did not. Species richness was highest in the lake system and during the months when water levels were low. Multivariate analysis indicates a small group of species associated with the low water-level phase. In contrast, many species were associated with high water levels or increasing water levels. The seasonal variation of hydrological cycle and the type of environment are the most important factors for rotifer structure in natural conditions.

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