scholarly journals Cloud–Radiation Feedback as a Leading Source of Uncertainty in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 3867-3881 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ying ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Budget ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Radiation Feedback ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The role of the intermodel spread of cloud–radiation feedback in the uncertainty in the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern under global warming is investigated based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs from 32 models participating in CMIP5. The large intermodel discrepancies in cloud–radiation feedback contribute 24% of the intermodel uncertainty in the TPSW pattern over the central Pacific. The mechanism by which the cloud–radiation feedback influences the TPSW pattern is revealed based on an analysis of the surface heat budget. A relatively weak negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central Pacific cannot suppress the surface warming as greatly as in the multimodel ensemble and thus induces a warm SST deviation over the central Pacific, producing a low-level convergence that suppresses (enhances) the evaporative cooling and zonal cold advection in the western (eastern) Pacific. With these processes, the original positive SST deviation over the central Pacific will move westward to the western and central Pacific, with a negative SST deviation in the eastern Pacific. Compared with the observed cloud–radiation feedback from six sets of reanalysis and satellite-observed data, the negative cloud–radiation feedback in the models is underestimated in general. It implies that the TPSW pattern should be closer to an El Niño–like pattern based on the concept of observational constraint. However, the observed cloud–radiation feedback from the various datasets also demonstrates large discrepancies in magnitude. Therefore, the authors suggest that more effort should be made to improve the precision of shortwave radiation observations and the description of cloud–radiation feedback in models for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern in future.

scholarly journals The Large-Scale Ocean Dynamical Effect on Uncertainty in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (22) ◽  
pp. 8051-8065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ying ◽  
Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ocean Stratification ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Radiation Feedback ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract This study investigates how intermodel differences in large-scale ocean dynamics affect the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming (TPSW) pattern under global warming, as projected by 32 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The largest cause of intermodel TPSW differences is related to the cloud–radiation feedback. After removing the effect of cloud–radiation feedback, the authors find that differences in ocean advection play the next largest role, explaining around 14% of the total intermodel variance in TPSW. Of particular importance are differences in climatological zonal overturning circulation among the models. With the robust enhancement of ocean stratification across models, models with relatively strong climatological upwelling tend to have relatively weak SST warming in the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, the pronounced intermodel differences in ocean overturning changes contribute little to uncertainty in the TPSW pattern. The intermodel differences in climatological zonal overturning are found to be associated with the intermodel spread in climatological SST. In most CMIP5 models, there is a common cold tongue associated with an overly strong overturning in the climatology simulation, implying a La Niña–like bias in the TPSW pattern projected by the MME of the CMIP5 models. This provides further evidence for the projection that the TPSW pattern should be closer to an El Niño–like pattern than the MME projection.

Interannual Salinity Variability Associated With the Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niños in the Tropical Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 125 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai Zhi ◽  
Rong‐Hua Zhang ◽  
Pengfei Lin ◽  
Peng Yu ◽  
Guanghui Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Salinity Variability ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

scholarly journals Strengthening of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent in the SODA Reanalysis: Mechanisms, Ocean Dynamics, and Implications

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 2405-2416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Drenkard ◽  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
Keyword(s):  
Heat Budget ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Several recent studies utilizing global climate models predict that the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) will strengthen over the twenty-first century. Here, historical changes in the tropical Pacific are investigated using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis toward understanding the dynamics and mechanisms that may dictate such a change. Although SODA does not assimilate velocity observations, the seasonal-to-interannual variability of the EUC estimated by SODA corresponds well with moored observations over a ~20-yr common period. Long-term trends in SODA indicate that the EUC core velocity has increased by 16% century−1 and as much as 47% century−1 at fixed locations since the mid-1800s. Diagnosis of the zonal momentum budget in the equatorial Pacific reveals two distinct seasonal mechanisms that explain the EUC strengthening. The first is characterized by strengthening of the western Pacific trade winds and hence oceanic zonal pressure gradient during boreal spring. The second entails weakening of eastern Pacific trade winds during boreal summer, which weakens the surface current and reduces EUC deceleration through vertical friction. EUC strengthening has important ecological implications as upwelling affects the thermal and biogeochemical environment. Furthermore, given the potential large-scale influence of EUC strength and depth on the heat budget in the eastern Pacific, the seasonal strengthening of the EUC may help reconcile paradoxical observations of Walker circulation slowdown and zonal SST gradient strengthening. Such a process would represent a new dynamical “thermostat” on CO2-forced warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, emphasizing the importance of ocean dynamics and seasonality in understanding climate change projections.

scholarly journals Biophysical Feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Marzeion ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Ragu Murtugudde ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Bjerknes Feedback ◽  
Mean State ◽  
Chlorophyll Concentrations ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract This study explores the influence of phytoplankton on the tropical Pacific heat budget. A hybrid coupled model for the tropical Pacific that is based on a primitive equation reduced-gravity multilayer ocean model, a dynamic ocean mixed layer, an atmospheric mixed layer, and a statistical atmosphere is used. The statistical atmosphere relates deviations of the sea surface temperature from its mean to wind stress anomalies and allows for the rectification of the annual cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon through the positive Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, a nine-component ecosystem model is coupled to the physical variables of the ocean. The simulated chlorophyll concentrations can feed back onto the ocean heat budget by their optical properties, which modify solar light absorption in the surface layers. It is shown that both the surface layer concentration as well as the vertical profile of chlorophyll have a significant effect on the simulated mean state, the tropical annual cycle, and ENSO. This study supports a previously suggested hypothesis (Timmermann and Jin) that predicts an influence of phytoplankton concentration of the tropical Pacific climate mean state and its variability. The bioclimate feedback diagnosed here works as follows: Maxima in the subsurface chlorophyll concentrations lead to an enhanced subsurface warming due to the absorption of photosynthetically available shortwave radiation. This warming triggers a deepening of the mixed layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific and eventually a reduction of the surface ocean currents (Murtugudde et al.). The weakened south-equatorial current generates an eastern Pacific surface warming, which is strongly enhanced by the Bjerknes feedback. Because of the deepening of the mixed layer, the strength of the simulated annual cycle is also diminished. This in turn leads to an increase in ENSO variability.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Differences between the North American Dipole and North Atlantic Oscillation

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuejing Zhou ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Zhaolu Hou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North American ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

This study examines the differences between the North American dipole (NAD) and the North American Oscillation (NAO) in terms of their spatial structure, temporal variations, and climate impacts. The results indicate that the sea level pressure anomalies associated with the NAD are located in more western and southern areas than those associated with the NAO, and that the NAD has its own temporal variability. In addition, the NAD has a greater influence on sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) than the NAO does in the North Atlantic. In the tropical Pacific, the NAD tends to be more effective in forcing SST warming during spring in the northeastern subtropical Pacific (NESP). This can extend equatorward to reach the equatorial central Pacific in the autumn, finally leading to a central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño event. In contrast, the NAO induces only weak SST warming over the NESP, so that a CP-type El Niño event does not occur. Additional analysis indicates that the influence of the NAO can pass to the tropical Pacific only when the NAD and NAO have the same sign, suggesting that the NAD may serve as an important bridge linking the NAO to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

scholarly journals Can We Constrain CMIP5 Rainfall Projections in the Tropical Pacific Based on Surface Warming Patterns?*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (24) ◽  
pp. 9123-9138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Grose ◽  
Jonas Bhend ◽  
Sugata Narsey ◽  
Alex Sen Gupta ◽  
Josephine R. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Hemispheric Asymmetry ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Climate warming has large implications for rainfall patterns, and identifying the most plausible pattern of rainfall change over the next century among various model projections would be valuable for future planning. The spatial pattern of projected sea surface temperature change has a key influence on rainfall changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here it is shown that simple indices of the size of the equatorial peak in the spatial pattern of warming and to a lesser extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming are useful for classifying the surface temperature change in different models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Models with a more pronounced equatorial warming show a fairly distinct rainfall response compared to those with more uniform warming, including a greater “warmer-get-wetter” or dynamical response, whereby rainfall increases follow the surface warming anomaly. Models with a more uniform warming pattern project a smaller rainfall increase at the equator and a rainfall increase in the southern tropical Pacific, a pattern that is distinct from the multimodel mean of CMIP5. Thus, the magnitude of enhanced equatorial warming and to some extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming provides a useful framework for constraining rainfall projections. While there is not a simple emergent constraint for enhanced equatorial warming in models in terms of past trends or bias in the current climate, further understanding of the various feedbacks involved in these features could lead to a useful constraint of rainfall for the Pacific region.

Salinity variability in the tropical Pacific during the Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño events

2019 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 103225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jifeng Qi ◽  
Linlin Zhang ◽  
Tangdong Qu ◽  
Baoshu Yin ◽  
Zhenhua Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific El Niño ◽  
Salinity Variability ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

scholarly journals Response of ENSO and the Mean State of the Tropical Pacific to Extratropical Cooling and Warming: A Study Using the IAP Coupled Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 5902-5917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Yu ◽  
D-Z. Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The coupled model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) is used to investigate the effects of extratropical cooling and warming on the tropical Pacific climate. The IAP coupled model is a fully coupled GCM without any flux correction. The model has been used in many aspects of climate modeling, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change and paleoclimate simulations. In this study, the IAP coupled model is subjected to cooling or heating over the extratropical Pacific. As in an earlier study, the cooling and heating is imposed over the extratropical region poleward of 10°N–10°S. Consistent with earlier findings, an elevated (reduced) level of ENSO activity in response to an increase (decrease) in the cooling over the extratropical region is found. The changes in the time-mean structure of the equatorial upper ocean are also found to be very different between the case in which ocean–atmosphere is coupled over the equatorial region and the case in which the ocean–atmosphere over the equatorial region is decoupled. For example, in the uncoupled run, the thermocline water across the entire equatorial Pacific is cooled in response to an increase in the extratropical cooling. In the corresponding coupled run, the changes in the equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the extratropical cooling resemble a La Niña situation—a deeper thermocline in the western and central Pacific accompanied by a shallower thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Conversely, with coupling, the response of the equatorial upper ocean to extratropical cooling resembles an El Niño situation. These results ascertain the role of extratropical ocean in determining the amplitude of ENSO. The results also underscore the importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the interaction between the tropical Pacific and the extratropical Pacific.

scholarly journals Air pollution slows down surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 881-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aolin Jia ◽  
Shunlin Liang ◽  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Bo Jiang ◽  
Xiaotong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Surface Warming

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a vital role in regional and global climate change. The TP has been undergoing significant surface warming starting from 1850, with an air temperature increase of 1.39 K and surface solar dimming resulting from decreased incident solar radiation. The causes and impacts of solar dimming on surface warming are unclear. In this study, long-term (from 1850 to 2015) surface downward radiation datasets over the TP are developed by integrating 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models and satellite products. The validation results from two ground measurement networks show that the generated downward surface radiation datasets have a higher accuracy than the mean of multiple CMIP5 datasets and the fused datasets of reanalysis and satellite products. After analyzing the generated radiation data with four air temperature datasets, we found that downward shortwave radiation (DSR) remained stable before 1950 and then declined rapidly at a rate of −0.53 W m−2 per decade, and that the fastest decrease in DSR occurs in the southeastern TP. Evidence from site measurements, satellite observations, reanalysis, and model simulations suggested that the TP solar dimming was primarily driven by increased anthropogenic aerosols. The TP solar dimming is stronger in summer, at the same time that the increasing magnitude of the surface air temperature is the smallest. The cooling effect of solar dimming offsets surface warming on the TP by 0.80±0.28 K (48.6±17.3 %) in summer since 1850. It helps us understand the role of anthropogenic aerosols in climate warming and highlights the need for additional studies to be conducted to quantify the influence of air pollution on regional climate change over the TP.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document