Global warming pattern formation: the role of ocean heat uptake

This study investigates the formation mechanism of ocean surface warming pattern in response to a doubling CO2 with a focus on the role of ocean heat uptake (or ocean surface heat flux change, ΔQnet). We demonstrate that the transient patterns of surface warming and rainfall change simulated by the dynamic ocean-atmosphere coupled model (DOM) can be reproduced by the equilibrium solutions of the slab ocean-atmosphere coupled model (SOM) simulations when forced with the DOM ΔQnet distribution. The SOM is then used as a diagnostic, inverse modeling tool to decompose the CO2-induced thermodynamic warming effect and the ΔQnet (ocean heat uptake)-induced cooling effect. As ΔQnet is largely positive (i.e., downward into the ocean) in the subpolar oceans and weakly negative at the equator, its cooling effect is strongly polar amplified and opposes the CO2 warming, reducing the net warming response especially over Antarctica. For the same reason, the ΔQnet-induced cooling effect contributes significantly to the equatorially enhanced warming in all three ocean basins, while the CO2 warming effect plays a role in the equatorial warming of the eastern Pacific. The spatially varying component of ΔQnet, although globally averaged to zero, can effectively rectify and lead to decreased global mean surface temperature of a comparable magnitude as the global mean ΔQnet effect under transient climate change. Our study highlights the importance of air-sea interaction in the surface warming pattern formation and the key role of ocean heat uptake pattern.

Future summer warming pattern under climate change is affected by lapse-rate changes

Greenhouse-gas-driven global temperature change projections exhibit spatial variations, meaning that certain land areas will experience substantially enhanced or reduced surface warming. It is vital to understand enhanced regional warming anomalies as they locally increase heat-related risks to human health and ecosystems. We argue that tropospheric lapse-rate changes play a key role in shaping the future summer warming pattern around the globe in mid-latitudes and the tropics. We present multiple lines of evidence supporting this finding based on idealized simulations over Europe, as well as regional and global climate model ensembles. All simulations consistently show that the vertical distribution of tropospheric summer warming is different in regions characterized by enhanced or reduced surface warming. Enhanced warming is projected where lapse-rate changes are small, implying that the surface and the upper troposphere experience similar warming. On the other hand, strong lapse-rate changes cause a concentration of warming in the upper troposphere and reduced warming near the surface. The varying magnitude of lapse-rate changes is governed by the temperature dependence of the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and the available tropospheric humidity. We conclude that tropospheric temperature changes should be considered along with surface processes when assessing the causes of surface warming patterns.

Effects of Excessive Equatorial Cold Tongue Bias on the Projections of Tropical Pacific Climate Change. Part II: The Extreme El Niño Frequency in CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

Under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models tend to project a warmer sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific than in the western equatorial Pacific. This El Niño-like warming pattern may induce an increase in the projected occurrence frequency of extreme El Niño events. The current models, however, commonly suffer from an excessive westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue accompanied by insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation. By comparing the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments with the historical simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), a “present–future” relationship among climate models was identified: models with insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation error would have a weaker mean El Niño-like warming pattern as well as a lower increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased GHG forcing. Using this “present–future” relationship and the observed precipitation in the equatorial western Pacific, this study calibrated the climate projections in the tropical Pacific. The corrected projections showed a stronger El Niño-like pattern of mean changes in the future, consistent with our previous study. In particular, the projected increased occurrence of extreme El Niño events under RCP 8.5 forcing are underestimated by 30–35% in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble before the corrections. This implies an increased risk of the El Niño-related weather and climate disasters in the future.

Past terrestrial hydroclimate driven by Earth System Feedbacks

Geologic evidence suggests drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during past warm intervals, including the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MP, 3.3 to 3.0 Ma). Despite having a similar to present-day atmospheric CO2 level (pCO2), MP featured moist subtropical conditions with high lake levels in Northern Africa, and mesic vegetation and sedimentary facies in subtropical Eurasia. Here, we demonstrate that major loss of the northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening, not the pCO2 forcing, are key to generating moist terrestrial conditions in subtropical Sahel and east Asia. In contrast to previous hypotheses, the moist conditions simulated in both regions are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, both varying strongly in response to land cover changes. These results suggest that past terrestrial hydroclimate states were driven by Earth System Feedbacks, which may outweigh the direct effect of pCO2 forcing.

Future summer warming pattern under climate change is regulated by lapse-rate changes

Greenhouse gas-driven global temperature change projections exhibit spatial variations, meaning that certain land areas will experience substantially enhanced or reduced surface warming. It is vital to understand enhanced regional warming anomalies as they locally increase heat-related risks to human health and ecosystems. We argue that tropospheric lapse-rate changes play a key role in shaping the future summer warming pattern around the globe in mid-latitudes and the tropics. We present multiple lines of evidence supporting this finding based on idealized simulations over Europe, as well as regional and global climate model ensembles. All simulations consistently show that the vertical distribution of tropospheric summer warming is different in regions characterized by enhanced or reduced surface warming. Enhanced warming is projected where lapse-rate changes are small, implying that the surface and the upper troposphere experience similar warming. On the other hand, strong lapse-rate changes cause a concentration of warming in the upper troposphere and reduced warming near the surface. The varying magnitude of lapse-rate changes is governed by the temperature dependence of the moist-adiabatic lapse rate and the available tropospheric humidity. We conclude that tropospheric temperature changes should be considered along with surface processes when assessing the causes of surface warming patterns.

Mid-Pliocene mesic subtropical hydroclimate over continents driven by land surface changes

<p>Earth System Models (ESMs) project drying of the northern subtropics by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. However, geologic evidence from intervals with elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO<sub>2</sub>), like the mid-Pliocene, suggest mesic subtropical conditions. Several hypotheses, including an El Niño-like SST pattern and weaker Hadley circulation, have been proposed to explain this mismatch. Here, we show that PlioMIP2 ensemble broadly capture the pattern of proxy reconstructed Pliocene hydroclimate, notably a wetter Sahel and southeast Asia. Sensitivity simulations reveal that this pattern is driven by summertime rainfall increases as a result of lowered albedo and a distinct surface warming pattern, generated by prescribed vegetation and ice sheet changes. The resultant tropospheric moistening and stationary wave pattern enhance moisture convergence into the northern subtropics. Our results suggest that mid-Pliocene hydroclimate is part of the Earth system feedback to sustained CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations similar to today.</p><p><img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/fileStorageProxy.php?f=gepj.0005b442a70068203111161/sdaolpUECMynit/12UGE&app=m&a=0&c=d33f4ac1a0750ab37681b00412fa7633&ct=x&pn=gepj.elif&d=1" alt=""></p>

Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2

<p>Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains a challenging problem due to discrepancies between models and observations, as well as a large intermodel spread in future projections. Here, we assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient, and the Walker circulation within the CMIP6 dataset. Using 40 models, we compare simulated tropical climate change across a wide range of experiments with varying CO<sub>2</sub> and aerosol forcing. In abrupt CO<sub>2</sub>-increase scenarios, many models generate an initial strengthening of the east-west gradient resembling an ocean thermostat (OT), characterized by lack of warming in the central Pacific, followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively larger establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) warming pattern. The initial response in these CO<sub>2</sub>-only experiments is a very good predictor for the future EP pattern simulated in future warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model trend. The likely explanation is that recent CO<sub>2</sub>-driven changes in the tropical Pacific, which are relatively small compared to future projections, are masked by aerosol effects. In future warming scenarios, however, the EP warming pattern emerges within 20-40 years as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing. These findings highlight the need to understand the largely overlooked, but possibly significant role of aerosols in delaying sea surface warming in the tropical Pacific, and the implications for predicting future climate change across the tropics.</p>

Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains a challenging problem. Here, we assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient, and the Walker circulation, across a range of different greenhouse warming experiments within the CMIP6 dataset. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat (OT), followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively larger establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific (EP) warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a very good predictor for the future EP pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model trend. The likely explanation is that recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects, and a potential OT delay, while the EP warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.