scholarly journals Gulf Stream Excursions and Sectional Detachments Generate the Decadal Pulses in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 2853-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumant Nigam ◽  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Léon Chafik
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
Salinity Anomaly ◽  
Meridional Displacement ◽  
Great Salinity Anomaly

Decadal pulses within the lower-frequency Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are a prominent but underappreciated AMO feature, representing decadal variability of the subpolar gyre (e.g., the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s) and wielding notable influence on the hydroclimate of the African and American continents. Here clues are sought into their origin in the spatiotemporal development of the Gulf Stream’s (GS) meridional excursions and sectional detachments apparent in the 1954–2012 record of ocean surface and subsurface salinity and temperature observations. The GS excursions are tracked via meridional displacement of the 15°C isotherm at 200-m depth—the GS index—whereas the AMO’s decadal pulses are targeted through the AMO tendency, which implicitly highlights the shorter time scales of the AMO index. The GS’s northward shift is shown to be preceded by the positive phase of the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation (LF-NAO) and followed by a positive AMO tendency by 1.25 and 2.5 years, respectively. The temporal phasing is such that the GS’s northward shift is nearly concurrent with the AMO’s cold decadal phase (cold, fresh subpolar gyre). Ocean–atmosphere processes that can initiate phase reversal of the gyre state are discussed, starting with the reversal of the LF-NAO, leading to a mechanistic hypothesis for decadal fluctuations of the subpolar gyre. According to the hypothesis, the fluctuation time scale is set by the self-feedback of the LF-NAO from its influence on SSTs in the seas around Greenland, and by the cross-basin transit of the GS’s detached eastern section; the latter is produced by the southward intrusion of subpolar water through the Newfoundland basin, just prior to the GS’s northward shift in the western basin.

Impact of Great Salinity Anomalies on the Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Climate

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 470-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Geoffrey K. Vallis
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Salinity Anomaly ◽  
Great Salinity Anomaly ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract In this paper, it is shown that coherent large-scale low-frequency variabilities in the North Atlantic Ocean—that is, the variations of thermohaline circulation, deep western boundary current, northern recirculation gyre, and Gulf Stream path—are associated with high-latitude oceanic Great Salinity Anomaly events. In particular, a dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly (warming off the U.S. east coast and cooling south of Greenland) can be triggered by the Great Salinity Anomaly events several years in advance, thus providing a degree of long-term predictability to the system. Diagnosed phase relationships among an observed proxy for Great Salinity Anomaly events, the Labrador Sea sea surface temperature anomaly, and the North Atlantic Oscillation are also discussed.

Using a first-order autonomous dynamical system to evaluate residence time of the Greenland freshwater anomaly in the Subpolar Gyre

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Dukhovskoy
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Residence Time ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Discharge Rate ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
Salinity Anomaly ◽  
Great Salinity Anomaly ◽  
Autonomous Dynamical System

<p>Increasing Greenland discharge has contributed more than 5000 km<sup>3</sup> of surplus fresh water to the Subpolar North Atlantic since the early 1990s. The volume of this freshwater anomaly is projected to cause freshening in the North Atlantic leading to changes in the intensity of deep convection and thermohaline circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. This is roughly half of the freshwater volume of the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s that caused notable freshening in the Subpolar North Atlantic. In analogy with the Great Salinity Anomaly, it has been proposed that, over the years, this additional Greenland freshwater discharge might have a great impact on convection driving thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic with consequent impact on climate. Previous numerical studies demonstrate that roughly half of this Greenland freshwater anomaly accumulates in the Subpolar Gyre. However, time scales over which the Greenland freshwater anomaly can accumulate in the subpolar basins is not known. This study estimates the residence time of the Greenland freshwater anomaly in the Subpolar Gyre by approximating the process of the anomaly accumulation in the study domain with a first order autonomous dynamical system forced by the Greenland freshwater anomaly discharge. General solutions are obtained for two types of the forcing function. First, the Greenland freshwater anomaly discharge is a constant function imposed as a step function. Second, the surplus discharge is a linearly increasing function. The solutions are deduced by utilizing results from the numerical experiments that tracked spreading of the Greenland fresh water with a passive tracer. The residence time of the freshwater anomaly is estimated to be about 10–15 years. The main differences in the solutions is that under the linearly increasing discharge rate, the volume of the accumulated Greenland freshwater anomaly in the Subpolar Gyre does not reach a steady state. By contrast, solution for the constant discharge rate reaches a steady state quickly asymptoting the new steady state value for time exceeding the residence time. Estimated residence time is compared with the numerical experiments and observations.</p>

scholarly journals Climate impacts on multidecadal <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 15223-15244
Author(s):  
M. L. Breeden ◽  
G. A. McKinley
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle using a regional model forced with realistic climate and pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948–2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Warming with the positive AMO increases subpolar gyre pCO2, but there is also a significant reduction of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due primarily to reduced vertical mixing. The net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net impacts of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2.

The Role of Extratropical Air–Sea Interaction in the Autumn Subseasonal Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7697-7712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Nie ◽  
Hong-Li Ren ◽  
Yang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The North ◽  
Subseasonal Variability ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Considerable progress has been made in understanding the internal eddy–mean flow feedback in the subseasonal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during winter. Using daily atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, this study highlights the role of extratropical air–sea interaction in the NAO variability during autumn when the daily sea surface temperature (SST) variability is more active and eddy–mean flow interactions are still relevant. Our analysis shows that a horseshoe-like SST tripolar pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean, marked by a cold anomaly in the Gulf Stream and two warm anomalies to the south of the Gulf Stream and off the western coast of northern Europe, can induce a quasi-barotropic NAO-like atmospheric response through eddy-mediated processes. An initial southwest–northeast tripolar geopotential anomaly in the North Atlantic forces this horseshoe-like SST anomaly tripole. Then the SST anomalies, through surface heat flux exchange, alter the spatial patterns of the lower-tropospheric temperature and thus baroclinicity anomalies, which are manifested as the midlatitude baroclinicity shifted poleward and reduced baroclinicity poleward of 70°N. In response to such changes of the lower-level baroclinicity, anomalous synoptic eddy generation, eddy kinetic energy, and eddy momentum forcing in the midlatitudes all shift poleward. Meanwhile, the 10–30-day low-frequency anticyclonic wave activities in the high latitudes decrease significantly. We illustrate that both the latitudinal displacement of midlatitude synoptic eddy activities and intensity variation of high-latitude low-frequency wave activities contribute to inducing the NAO-like anomalies.

scholarly journals Arctic/Atlantic Exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 2421-2439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene R. Langehaug ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Tor Eldevik ◽  
Odd Helge Otterå
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract In the present study the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre (SPG) in a 600-yr preindustrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model is investigated. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflows from the Nordic seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std dev) of the total overflow (1 std dev = 0.2 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) corresponds to an intensification of about one-half std dev of the SPG strength (1 std dev = 2 Sv). A similar response is found for an increase of one std dev in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one-half std dev (1 std dev = 0.9 Sv).

scholarly journals A New Statistical Model for Predicting Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 730-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Davis ◽  
Xubin Zeng ◽  
Elizabeth A. Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Colorado State University ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North

Abstract Statistical, dynamical, and statistical–dynamical hybrid models have been developed in past decades for the seasonal prediction of North Atlantic hurricane numbers. These models’ prediction skills show considerable decadal variability, with particularly poor performance in the past few years. Here, environmental factors that affect hurricane activities are reevaluated to develop a new statistical model for seasonal prediction by 1 June of each year. The predictors include the April–May multivariate ENSO index (MEI) conditioned upon the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index, the power of the average zonal pseudo–wind stress across the North Atlantic in May, and the average March–May tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature. When compared to the actual number of hurricanes each year from 1950 to 2013, this model has a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.91 with a correlation coefficient of 0.71. It shows a 39% improvement in RMSE over a no-skill metric (based on the 5-yr running mean of seasonal hurricane counts) for the period 2001–13. It also outperforms three statistical–dynamical hybrid models [CPC, Colorado State University (CSU), and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)] by more than 25% for the same period. Furthermore, two approaches are developed to provide the uncertainty ranges around the predicted (deterministic) hurricane number per season that better encompass the range of uncertainty than does the standard method of adding/subtracting a standard deviation of the errors.

Observed and simulated (CMIP5 and CMIP6) early- to late-winter evolution of North Atlantic atmospheric variability and links to the ocean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Bracegirdle
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Depth Analysis

&lt;p&gt;Research to date has shown strong multi-decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in late winter, particularly in March when correlations to North Atlantic (NA) ocean variability (Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV)) are particularly strong. This late-winter low-frequency atmospheric variability appears too weak in the majority of climate models across a range of indices of North Atlantic large-scale atmospheric circulation. It appears that models do not successfully reproduce responses to either (or both) proximal sea-surface temperature (SST) variability at mid-latitudes or teleconnections to SST variability in the sub tropics.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, an in-depth analysis of the winter evolution of multiple indices of North Atlantic mid-latitude atmospheric circulation will be presented based on both re-analysis data and historical simulations of coupled climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The atmospheric indices assessed will include the NAO, speed and latitude of the NA eddy driven jet and lower-tropospheric westerly wind strength in a region of maximum variability to the west of the UK. Results so far indicate that the CMIP6 models do not exhibit a clear change from CMIP5 in terms of the representation of low-frequency late-winter atmospheric variability. To diagnose in more detail possible origins of differences between observed and simulated variability, a detailed evaluation of early- to late-winter evolution in variability of the above indices will be presented, with an initial focus on observations (re-analysis and SST re-constructions) and incorporating the following questions: &amp;#160;&lt;br&gt;- Are there significant differences in the relative strength of linkages to tropical and extra-tropical SST variability across the different atmospheric indices?&amp;#160;&lt;br&gt;- Is the observed late-winter maximum in correlations between NA atmospheric indices and North Atlantic SSTs still apparent at sub-decadal timescales?&lt;br&gt;Initial results indicate that there are stronger tropical linkages for jet speed and that at sub-decadal timescales late winter is does not dominate in terms of correlations between atmospheric and SST variability. Updates on these early results will be presented along with implications of the results for differences between observed and simulated variability.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

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