scholarly journals Greater Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Intensify Western U.S. Droughts, Wildfire Severity, and Sierra Nevada Tree Mortality

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 341-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph L. Crockett ◽  
A. Leroy Westerling
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
First Century ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Climatic Water Deficit ◽  
Mortality Incidence ◽  
Warming World

Abstract Extensive drought in the western United States (WUS) during the twenty-first century and associated wildfire and tree mortality incidence has highlighted the potential for greater area of severity within widespread droughts. To place recent WUS droughts into a historical context, the authors analyzed gridded daily climate (temperature, precipitation, and climatic water deficit) data to identify and characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of the largest WUS droughts of the last 100 years, with an emphasis on severe cores within drought extents. Cores of droughts during the last 15 years (2000–02 and 2012–14) covered a greater area than in earlier droughts, driven by greater temperature and precipitation extremes. Comparing fire extent and severity before, during, and after drought events using the monitoring trends in burn severity dataset (1984–2014), the authors found fire size and high-severity burn extent were greater during droughts than before or after. Similarly, recent Sierra Nevada forest mortality was greatest in cores immediately after the drought. Climate simulations anticipate greater extremes in temperature and precipitation in a warming world; droughts and related impacts of the last 15 years may presage the effects of these extremes.

scholarly journals Cross-scale interaction of host tree size and climatic water deficit governs bark beetle-induced tree mortality

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Koontz ◽  
Andrew M. Latimer ◽  
Leif A. Mortenson ◽  
Christopher J. Fettig ◽  
Malcolm P. North
Keyword(s):  
Water Deficit ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Dendroctonus Brevicomis ◽  
Scale Interactions ◽  
Climatic Water Deficit ◽  
Host Mortality

AbstractThe recent Californian hot drought (2012–2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km2, validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality.

Response of high-elevation limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to multiyear droughts and 20th-century warming, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (12) ◽  
pp. 2508-2520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constance I. Millar ◽  
Robert D. Westfall ◽  
Diane L. Delany
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Dwarf Mistletoe ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Pinus Flexilis ◽  
Limber Pine ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Limber pine ( Pinus flexilis James) stands along the eastern escarpment of the Sierra Nevada, California, experienced significant mortality from 1985 to 1995 during a period of sustained low precipitation and high temperature. The stands differ from old-growth limber pine forests in being dense, young, more even-aged, and located in warmer, drier microclimates. Tree growth showed high interannual variability. Relative to live trees, dead trees over their lifetimes had higher series sensitivity, grew more variably, and had lower growth. Although droughts recurred during the 20th century, tree mortality occurred only in the late 1980s. Significant correlations and interactions of growth and mortality dates with temperature and precipitation indicate that conditions of warmth plus sustained drought increased the likelihood of mortality in the 1985–1995 interval. This resembles a global-change-type drought, where warming combined with drought was an initial stress, trees were further weakened by dwarf mistletoe ( Arceuthobium cyanocarpum (A. Nels. ex Rydb.) A. Nels.), and proximally killed by mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). However, the thinning effect of the drought-related mortality appears to have promoted resilience and improved near-term health of these stands, which suffered no additional mortality in the subsequent 1999–2004 drought.

Forest mortality in high-elevation whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of eastern California, USA; influence of environmental context, bark beetles, climatic water deficit, and warming

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 749-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constance I. Millar ◽  
Robert D. Westfall ◽  
Diane L. Delany ◽  
Matthew J. Bokach ◽  
Alan L. Flint ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Deficit ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Mountain Pine Beetle ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Pinus Albicaulis ◽  
Whitebark Pine ◽  
Climatic Water Deficit

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) in subalpine zones of eastern California experienced significant mortality from 2007 to 2010. Dying stands were dense (mean basal area 47.5 m2/ha), young (mean 176 years), and even-age; mean stand mortality was 70%. Stands were at low elevations (mean 2993 m), on northerly aspects, and experienced warmer, drier climates relative to the regional species distribution. White pine blister rust was not observed; mountain pine beetle infestations were extensive. Ring widths were negatively correlated with climatic water deficit and positively correlated with water-year precipitation. Although trees that survived had greater growth during the 20th century than trees that died, in the 19th century trees that eventually died grew better than trees that survived, suggesting selection for genetic adaptation to current climates as a result of differential tree mortality. Air surveys (2006–2010) in the Sierra Nevada, Mt. Shasta, and Warner Mountains showed similar trends to the intensive studies. Observed mortality from air surveys was highest in the Warner Mountains (38%) and lowest in the Sierra Nevada (5%); northern aspects at lower elevations within each mountain region had the highest probabilities of mortality and dying stands had higher climatic water deficit. Scenarios for the future of whitebark pine in California are discussed.

scholarly journals Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Richard Bintanja
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Probability Ratio ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Individual Contributions ◽  
Mean Climate

AbstractThe frequency of climate extremes will change in response to shifts in both mean climate and climate variability. These individual contributions, and thus the fundamental mechanisms behind changes in climate extremes, remain largely unknown. Here we apply the probability ratio concept in large-ensemble climate simulations to attribute changes in extreme events to either changes in mean climate or climate variability. We show that increased occurrence of monthly high-temperature events is governed by a warming mean climate. In contrast, future changes in monthly heavy-precipitation events depend to a considerable degree on trends in climate variability. Spatial variations are substantial however, highlighting the relevance of regional processes. The contributions of mean and variability to the probability ratio are largely independent of event threshold, magnitude of warming and climate model. Hence projections of temperature extremes are more robust than those of precipitation extremes, since the mean climate is better understood than climate variability.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in China by the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 6591-6611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Botao Zhou ◽  
Qiuzi Han Wen ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
Lianchun Song ◽  
Xuebin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract This paper presents projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the end of the twenty-first century based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. The temporal changes and their spatial patterns in the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) indices under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are analyzed. Compared to the reference period 1986–2005, substantial changes are projected in temperature and precipitation extremes under both emission scenarios. These changes include a decrease in cold extremes, an increase in warm extremes, and an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intermodel spread in the projection increases with time, with wider spread under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 for most indices, especially at the subregional scale. The difference in the projected changes under the two RCPs begins to emerge in the 2040s. Analyses based on the mixed-effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) model indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century, at the national scale, the dominant contributor to the projection uncertainty of most temperature-based indices, and some precipitation extremes [including maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and total extremely wet day total amount (R95p)], is the difference in emission scenarios. By the end of the twenty-first century, model uncertainty is the dominant factor at the regional scale and for the other indices. Natural variability can also play very important role.

scholarly journals Cross-scale interaction of host tree size and climatic water deficit governs bark beetle-induced tree mortality

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J Koontz ◽  
Andrew M. Latimer ◽  
Leif A. Mortenson ◽  
Christopher J. Fettig ◽  
Malcolm P. North
Keyword(s):  
Water Deficit ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Dendroctonus Brevicomis ◽  
Scale Interactions ◽  
Climatic Water Deficit ◽  
Host Mortality

The recent Californian hot drought (2012-2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km2, validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-497
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
First Century ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Rick T. Lader ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Peter A. Bieniek ◽  
Richard Thoman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Southcentral Alaska ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.

scholarly journals Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Superparameterized CAM in Response to Warmer SSTs

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (24) ◽  
pp. 9827-9845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhou ◽  
Marat F. Khairoutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Cloud Resolving Model ◽  
Cold Extremes

Subdaily temperature and precipitation extremes in response to warmer SSTs are investigated on a global scale using the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded in each CAM grid column to simulate convection explicitly. Two 10-yr simulations have been performed using present climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and perturbed SST climatology derived from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with the conventional CAM, SP-CAM simulates colder temperatures and more realistic intensity distribution of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. The temperature and precipitation extremes have been defined by the 99th percentile of the 3-hourly data. For temperature, the changes in the warm and cold extremes are generally consistent between CAM and SP-CAM, with larger changes in warm extremes at low latitudes and larger changes in cold extremes at mid-to-high latitudes. For precipitation, CAM predicts a uniform increase of frequency of precipitation extremes regardless of the rain rate, while SP-CAM predicts a monotonic increase of frequency with increasing rain rate and larger change of intensity for heavier precipitation. The changes in 3-hourly and daily temperature extremes are found to be similar; however, the 3-hourly precipitation extremes have a significantly larger change than daily extremes. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is found to be a relatively good predictor of zonally averaged changes in precipitation extremes over midlatitudes but not as good over the tropics and subtropics. The changes in precipitable water and large-scale vertical velocity are equally important to explain the changes in precipitation extremes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document