Potential Underestimation of Future Mei-Yu Rainfall with Coarse-Resolution Climate Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (17) ◽  
pp. 6711-6727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaolong Chen ◽  
Peili Wu ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model

The amount of rainfall during June and July along the mei-yu front contributes about 45% to the total summer precipitation over the Yangtze River valley. How it will change under global warming is of great concern to the people of China because of its particular socioeconomic importance, but climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show large uncertainties. This paper examines model resolution sensitivity and reports large differences in projected future summer rainfall along the mei-yu front between a low-resolution (Gaussian N96 grid, ~1.5° latitude–longitude) and a high-resolution (N216, ~0.7°) version of the Hadley Centre’s latest climate model, the HadGEM3 Global Coupled Configuration 2.0 (HadGEM3-GC2). The high-resolution model projects large increases of summer rainfall under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) whereas the low-resolution model shows a decrease. A larger increase of projected mei-yu rainfall in higher-resolution models is also observed across the CMIP5 ensemble. These differences can be explained in terms of enhanced moist static energy advection and moisture convergence by stationary eddies in the high-resolution model. A large-scale manifestation of the anomalous stationary eddies is the contrasting response to the same warming scenario by the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is almost unchanged in N216 but retreats evidently eastward in N96, reducing the southwesterly flow and consequently moisture supply to the mei-yu front. Further increases in model resolution to resolve parameterized processes and detailed orographic features will hopefully reduce the spread in future climate projections.

scholarly journals Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1383-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Hannah M. Christensen ◽  
Stephan Juricke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

scholarly journals High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Haarsma ◽  
M. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
C. A. Senior ◽  
A. Bellucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest the possibility for significant changes in both large-scale aspects of circulation, as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high resolution global simulations at climate time scales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centers and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other MIPs. Increases in High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enables a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility to extend to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulation. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions: “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

scholarly journals Improvement of the Numerical Tropical Cyclone Prediction System at the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan: TWRF (Typhoon WRF)

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 657
Author(s):  
Ling-Feng Hsiao ◽  
Der-Song Chen ◽  
Jing-Shan Hong ◽  
Tien-Chiang Yeh ◽  
Chin-Tzu Fong
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Weather Bureau ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
Central Weather Bureau ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tc Prediction

Typhoon WRF (TWRF) based on the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW WRF) was operational at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) for tropical cyclone (TC) predictions since 2010 (named TWRF V1). CWB has committed to improve this regional model, aiming to increase the model predictability toward typhoons over East Asia. In 2016, an upgraded version designed to replace TWRF V1 became operational (named TWRF V2). Compared with V1, which has triple-nested meshes with coarser resolution (45/15/5 km), V2 increased the model resolution to 15/3 km. Since V1 and V2 were maintained in parallel from 2016 to 2018, this study utilized the real-time forecasts to investigate the impact of model resolution on TC prediction. Statistical measures pointed out the superiority of the high-resolution model on TC prediction. The forecast performance was also found competitive with that of two leading global models. The case study further pointed out, with the higher resolution, the model not only advanced the prediction on the TC track and inner core structure but also improved the representativeness of the complex terrain. Overall, the high-resolution model can better handle the so-called terrain phase-lock effect and, therefore, improve the TC quantitative precipitation forecast over the complex Taiwanese terrain.

scholarly journals Effects of High Resolution and Spinup Time on Modeled North Atlantic Circulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 1159-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Danek ◽  
Patrick Scholz ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The North ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Horizontal Resolution ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractThe influence of a high horizontal resolution (5–15 km) on the general circulation and hydrography in the North Atlantic is investigated using the Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM). We find a stronger shift of the upper-ocean circulation and water mass properties during the model spinup in the high-resolution model version compared to the low-resolution (~1°) control run. In quasi equilibrium, the high-resolution model is able to reduce typical low-resolution model biases. Especially, it exhibits a weaker salinification of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and a reduced mixed layer depth in the Labrador Sea. However, during the spinup adjustment, we see that initially improved high-resolution features partially reduce over time: the strength of the Atlantic overturning and the path of the North Atlantic Current are not maintained, and hence hydrographic biases known from low-resolution ocean models return in the high-resolution quasi-equilibrium state. We identify long baroclinic Rossby waves as a potential cause for the strong upper-ocean adjustment of the high-resolution model and conclude that a high horizontal resolution improves the state of the modeled ocean but the model integration length should be chosen carefully.

Neighborhood-Based Contingency Tables Including Errors Compensation

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (1) ◽  
pp. 329-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joël Stein ◽  
Fabien Stoop
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contingency Tables ◽  
Global Model ◽  
New Method ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Models

Some specific scores use a neighborhood strategy in order to reduce double penalty effects, which penalize high-resolution models, compared to large-scale models. Contingency tables based on this strategy have already been proposed, but can sometimes display undesirable behavior. A new method of populating contingency tables is proposed: pairs of missed events and false alarms located in the same local neighborhood compensate in order to give pairs of hits and correct rejections. Local tables are summed up so as to provide the final table for the whole verification domain. It keeps track of the bias of the forecast when neighborhoods are taken into account. Moreover, the scores computed from this table depend on the distance between forecast and observed patterns. This method is applied to binary and multicategorical events in a simplified framework so as to present the method and to compare the new tables with previous neighborhood-based contingency tables. The new tables are then used for the verification of two models operational at Météo-France: AROME, a high-resolution model, and ARPEGE, a large-scale global model. The comparison of several contingency scores shows that the importance of the double penalty decreases more for AROME than for ARPEGE when the neighboring size increases. Scores designed for rare events are also applied to these neighborhood-based contingency tables.

scholarly journals Evaluating seasonal hydrological extremes in mesoscale (pre-)Alpine basins at coarse 0.5° and fine hyperresolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1593-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joost Buitink ◽  
Remko Uijlenhoet ◽  
Adriaan J. Teuling
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
Basin Response

Abstract. Hydrological models are being applied for impact assessment across a wide range of resolutions. In this study, we quantify the effect of model resolution on the simulated hydrological response in five mesoscale basins in the Swiss Alps using the distributed hydrological model Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY). We introduce a new metric to compare a range of values resulting from a distributed model with a single value: the density-weighted distance (DWD). Model simulations are performed at two different spatial resolutions, matching common practices in hydrology: 500 m × 500 m matching regional-scale models, and 40 km × 40 km matching global-scale modeling. We investigate both the intra-basin response in seasonal streamflow and evapotranspiration from the high-resolution model and the difference induced by the two different spatial resolutions, with a focus on four seasonal extremes, selected based on temperature and precipitation. Results from the high-resolution model show that the intra-basin response covers a surprisingly large range of anomalies and show that it is not uncommon to have both extreme positive and negative flux anomalies occurring simultaneously within a catchment. The intra-basin response was grouped by land cover, where different dominant runoff-generating processes are driving the differences between these groups. The low-resolution model failed to capture the diverse and contrasting response from the high-resolution model, since neither the complex topography nor land cover classes were properly represented. DWD values show that, locally, the hydrological response simulated with a high-resolution model can be a lot more extreme than a low-resolution model might indicate, which has important implications for global or continental scale assessments carried out at coarse grids of 0.5∘×0.5∘ or 0.25∘×0.25∘ resolution.

scholarly journals Study of Monsoonal Features Using Regional Climate Model over Heterogeneous Monsoon Dominated Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 03004
Author(s):  
Rohit Srivastava ◽  
Ruchita Shah
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
High Resolution Model

Global warming is an increase in average global temperature of the earth which lead to climate change. Heterogeneity in the earth-atmosphere system becomes difficult to capture at low resolution (1°x1°) by satellite. Such features may be captured by using high resolution model such as regional climate model (0.5°x 0.5°). This type of study is quite important for a monsoon dominated country like India where Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) faces highest heterogeneity due to its geographic location. Present study compares high resolution model features with satellite data over IGP for monsoon season during a normal rainfall year 2010 to understand the actual performance of model. Almost whole IGP simulates relative humidity (RH) with wide range (~50-100%), whereas satellite shows it with narrow range (~60-80%) during September, 2010. Thus model is able to pick the features which were missed by satellite. Hence further model simulation extends over India and adjoining oceanic regions which simulates data of southwest monsoon with high (~70-100%) RH, high (~0.4-0.7) cloud fraction (CF) and low (~80-200 W/m2) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Arabian Sea during June, 2010. Such type of study can be useful to understand heterogeneity at regional scale with the help of high resolution model generated data.

Resolution Dependency of Future Caribbean Sea Level Response

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
René van Westen ◽  
Henk Dijkstra
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Caribbean Sea ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Mesoscale Processes

<div> <div> <div> <p>The current global climate models, which are often used in inter-comparison projects, have a large variety in their spatial resolution. For most climate models, the resolution of the ocean grid does not allow to resolve mesoscale processes such as ocean eddies. Current sea level projections are based on these coarse climate models, but might have biases (either positive or negative) in these projections since mesoscale processes are parameterised.</p> <p>Here we investigate the differences in future Caribbean sea level rise using a centennial simulation of a high- and low-resolution version of the Community Earth System Model under the same anthropogenic forcing. In the high-resolution version of the model mesoscale processes are resolved. Locally, we find a decrease of 7.2 cm in sea level extremes over a 100-year period in the high-resolution version; this decrease is almost absent in the low-resolution version. This local decrease in sea level extremes is related to ocean eddies, which are not resolved in the low-resolution version, hence explaining the different sea level response between the models. When comparing modelled sea level trends to observed sea level trends over the past 25 years, we find a reasonable agreement between observations and the high-resolution model. However, for the low-resolution model and some of the preliminary CMIP6 model output, there is a substantial mismatch between the observed- and modelled sea level trends.</p> <p>By analysing model output from two different resolutions of the same climate model, we find that the sea level response in the Caribbean Sea is resolution-dependent. As a result, not resolving mesoscale processes in climate models can locally result in overestimations of future sea level rise projections.</p> </div> </div> </div>

scholarly journals Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Nigel M. Roberts ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.

scholarly journals High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 4185-4208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reindert J. Haarsma ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Catherine A. Senior ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
High Resolution Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

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