scholarly journals Different Effects of Two ENSO Types on Arctic Surface Temperature in Boreal Winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 4943-4961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyu Li ◽  
Wenjun Zhang ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Haiming Xu ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Arctic Surface

AbstractThe present work investigates different responses of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) to two ENSO types based on reanalysis datasets and model experiments. We find that eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events are accompanied by statistically significant SAT responses over the Barents–Kara Seas in February, while central Pacific (CP) events coincide with statistically significant SAT responses over northeastern Canada and Greenland. These impacts are largely of opposite sign for ENSO warm and cold phases. During EP El Niño in February, the enhanced tropospheric polar vortex over Eurasia and associated local low-level northeasterly anomalies over the Barents–Kara Seas lead to anomalously cold SAT in this region. Simultaneously, the enhanced tropospheric polar vortex leads to enhanced sinking air motion and consequently reduced cloud cover. This in turn reduces downward infrared radiation (IR), which further reduces SAT in the Barents–Kara Seas region. Such a robust response cannot be detected during other winter months for EP ENSO events. During CP El Niño, the February SATs over northeastern Canada and Greenland are anomalously warm and coincide with a weakened tropospheric polar vortex and related local low-level southwesterly anomalies originating from the Atlantic Ocean. The anomalous warmth can be enhanced by the local positive feedback. Similar SAT signals as in February during CP ENSO events can also be seen in January, but they are less statistically robust. We demonstrate that these contrasting Arctic February SAT responses are consistent with responses to the two ENSO types with a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments. These results have implications for the seasonal predictability of regional Arctic SAT anomalies.

scholarly journals Extratropical Influences on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation through the Late Quaternary

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 788-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. G. Bush
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Linear Stability Theory ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract A sequence of numerical simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model configured for particular times during the late Quaternary shows that simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events decrease in frequency from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today, in accord with linear stability theory, but increase in amplitude. Diagnostic analyses indicate that altered momentum fluxes from midlatitude eddy activity caused by changes in orbital forcing (in the Holocene) and topographic forcing (at the LGM) regulate the strength of climatological easterlies and therefore affect both the tropical mean state and the characteristics of interannual variability. The fact that climatic teleconnections associated with paleo-ENSO are fundamentally different during these times suggests a way in which to reconcile some of the existing discrepancies amongst interpretations of proxy records and numerical paleoclimate simulations.

scholarly journals Modulation of the Relationship between ENSO and Its Combination Mode by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (11) ◽  
pp. 4679-4695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Geng ◽  
Wenjun Zhang ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Aaron F. Z. Levine
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Combination Mode ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractRecent studies demonstrated the existence of a conspicuous atmospheric combination mode (C-mode) originating from nonlinear interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle (AC). Here we find that the C-mode exhibits prominent decadal amplitude variations during the ENSO decaying boreal spring season. It is revealed that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can largely explain this waxing and waning in amplitude. A robust positive correlation between ENSO and the C-mode is detected during a negative AMO phase but not during a positive phase. Similar results can also be found in the relationship of ENSO with 1) the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and 2) spring precipitation over southern China, both of which are closely associated with the C-mode. We suggest that ENSO property changes due to an AMO modulation play a crucial role in determining these decadal shifts. During a positive AMO phase, ENSO events are distinctly weaker than those in an AMO negative phase. In addition, El Niño events concurrent with a positive AMO phase tend to exhibit a westward-shifted sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. These SST characteristics during the positive AMO phase are both not conducive to the development of the meridionally asymmetric C-mode atmospheric circulation pattern and thus reduce the ENSO/C-mode correlation on decadal time scales. These observations can be realistically reproduced by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiment in which North Atlantic SSTs are nudged to reproduce a 50-yr sinusoidally varying AMO evolution. Our conclusion carries important implications for understanding seasonally modulated ENSO dynamics and multiscale climate impacts over East Asia.

Predictability of Two Types of El Niño Assessed Using an Extended Seasonal Prediction System by MIROC

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (11) ◽  
pp. 4597-4617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto ◽  
Masato Mori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Central Pacific

Abstract Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using ensemble hindcasts made with a seasonal prediction system based on the atmosphere and ocean general circulation model, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5). Particular attention is paid to differences in predictive skill in terms of the prediction error for two prominent types of El Niño: the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, the latter having a maximum warming around the date line. Although the system adopts ocean anomaly assimilation for the initialization process, it maintains a significant ability to predict ENSO with a lead time of more than half a year. This is partly due to the fact that the system is little affected by the “spring prediction barrier,” because increases in the error have little dependence on the thermocline variability. Composite analyses of each type of El Niño reveal that, compared to EP El Niños, the ability to predict CP El Niños is limited and has a shorter lead time. This is because CP El Niños have relatively small amplitudes, and thus they are more affected by atmospheric noise; this prevents development of oceanic signals that can be used for prediction.

scholarly journals Impact of South Pacific Subtropical Dipole Mode on the Equatorial Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2197-2216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Zheng ◽  
Faming Wang ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Mengyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Wes Feedback

Previous studies have indicated that a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole in the subtropical South Pacific (SPSD), which peaks in austral summer (January–March), is dominated by thermodynamic processes. Observational analyses and numerical experiments were used to investigate the influence of SPSD mode on the equatorial Pacific. The model is an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a reduced-gravity ocean model. An SPSD-like SSTA was imposed on 1 March, after which the model was free to evolve until the end of the year. The coupled model response showed that warm SSTAs extend toward the equator with northwesterly wind anomalies and then grow to El Niño–like anomalies by the end of the year. SPSD forcing weakens southeasterly trade winds and propagates warm SSTAs toward the equator through wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. Meanwhile, relaxation of trade winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific depresses the thermocline and upwelling. Eastward anomalous currents near the equator cause warm horizontal advection in the central Pacific. Further experiments showed that thermodynamic coupling mainly acts on but is not essential for SSTA propagation, either from the subtropics to the equator or westward along the equator, while oceanic dynamic coupling alone also appears to be able to initiate anomalies on the equator and plays a critical role in SSTA growth in the tropical Pacific. This is consistent with observational analyses, which indicated that influence of WES feedback on SSTA propagation associated with the SPSD is limited. Finally, the warm pole close to the equator plays the dominant role in inducing the El Niño–like anomalies.

Analysis of the Nonlinearity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6225-6244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Frauen ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Nicholas Tyrrell ◽  
Michael Rezny ◽  
Scott Wales
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
Nonlinear Responses

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant variations and nonlinearities in its pattern and strength. ENSO events vary in their position along the equator, with some located in the central Pacific (CP) and others in the east Pacific (EP). To study how these variations are reflected in global ENSO teleconnections, both observations and idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations are analyzed. Clear nonlinearities exist in observed teleconnections of sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation. However, it is difficult to distinguish if these are caused by the different signs, strengths, or spatial patterns of events (strong El Niño events mostly being EP events and strong La Niña events mostly being CP events) or by combinations of these. Therefore, sensitivity experiments are performed with an AGCM forced with idealized EP and CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) patterns with varying signs and strengths. The response is generally stronger for warm events than for cold events and the teleconnection patterns vary with changing SST anomaly patterns. EP events show stronger nonlinearities than CP events. The nonlinear responses to ENSO events can be explained as a combination of nonlinear responses to a linear ENSO (fixed pattern but varying signs and strengths) and a linear response to a nonlinear ENSO (varying patterns). Any observed event is a combination of these aspects. While in most tropical regions these add up, leading to stronger nonlinear responses than expected from the single components, in some regions they cancel each other, resulting in little overall nonlinearity. This leads to strong regional differences in ENSO teleconnections.

scholarly journals Eastern Pacific Wind Effect on the Evolution of El Niño: Implications for ENSO Diversity

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3197-3212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qihua Peng ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Dongxiao Wang ◽  
Youichi Kamae ◽  
Hong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Wind Effect ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Extreme El Niño

AbstractThe influence of eastern tropical Pacific (EPAC; 10°S–10°N, 140°–80°W) wind anomalies on El Niño is investigated using observations and model experiments. Extreme and moderate El Niños exhibit contrasting anomalous wind patterns in the EPAC during the peak and decay phases: westerly wind anomalies during extreme El Niño and southeasterly (southwesterly) wind anomalies south (north) of the equator during moderate El Niño. Experiments with an ocean general circulation model indicate that for extreme El Niño, the eastward intrusion of westerly wind anomalies contributes to the prolonged positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific throughout boreal spring by weakened upwelling and horizontal advection. For moderate El Niño, by contrast, both the meridional and zonal anomalous winds over the EPAC are important in the rapid (slow) SST cooling south (north) of the equator through advection and wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Atmospheric model experiments confirm that these EPAC anomalous winds are primarily forced by tropical SST anomalies. The interplay between wind and SST anomalies suggests positive air–sea feedbacks over EPAC during the decay phase of El Niño. Ocean model results show that the frequency of extreme El Niño increases when EPAC wind anomalies are removed, suggesting the importance of EPAC winds for El Niño diversity.

scholarly journals El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 95-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Nyenzi ◽  
P. F. Lefale
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Detailed Assessment ◽  
Warming World

Abstract. It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C) observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001). How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001) assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001). However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), in preparations) suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability. More research is needed to further enhance scientific understanding of possible teleconnections between ENSO and global warming. It is worth noting the IPCC AR4 due to be release in September 2007, would provide a more detailed assessment of ENSO and global warming than what is being covered in this paper.

scholarly journals Tropical SST Preconditioning of the SH Polar Vortex during Winter 2002

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 5295-5303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Grassi ◽  
Gianluca Redaelli ◽  
Guido Visconti
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Moderate Intensity ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Primary Role ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract The response of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar atmosphere to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) during the 2002 winter–spring season is investigated by using a general circulation model (GCM). The SH stratospheric winter of 2002 was particularly unusual, characterized by a weaker-than-normal polar vortex during the whole season. It also registered, at the end of September, the first major warming yet observed in the SH. This event is unexpected in the SH, and it is supposed to be induced by a “preconditioning” of the polar vortex starting at the beginning of the winter. Atmospheric GCM experiments with prescribed SST boundary conditions are performed. The sensitivity of the Antarctic dynamics to the tropical SST of 2002 (a year characterized by an El Niño event of moderate intensity) is studied, and the uniqueness of the 2002 tropical oceanic condition is investigated through the comparison of the simulated response of the climatic system to 2002 and 1997 tropical SST (1997 being a year with a strong El Niño event). Model results highlight a primary role played by the tropical SST of 2002 in the development of the peculiar characteristics of the Antarctic dynamics during the winter months that appears to be a necessary condition for the generation of the anomalous destabilization of the polar vortex during the following spring. Results for June 2002 show a strong generation of vertically propagating waves resulting from the tropical SST that, through the perturbation of the westerly jet at middle latitudes, produces a preconditioning of the polar vortex by affecting the wave refraction index. The particular structure of the tropical SST anomalies during the winter of 2002 is thought to have influenced the subsequent preconditioning of the stratospheric vortex.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Communication of El Niño Teleconnections to European Winter

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (15) ◽  
pp. 4083-4096 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. Bell ◽  
L. J. Gray ◽  
A. J. Charlton-Perez ◽  
M. M. Joshi ◽  
A. A. Scaife
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The stratospheric role in the European winter surface climate response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature forcing is investigated using an intermediate general circulation model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Under El Niño conditions, both the modeled tropospheric and stratospheric mean-state circulation changes correspond well to the observed “canonical” responses of a late winter negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a strongly weakened polar vortex, respectively. The variability of the polar vortex is modulated by an increase in frequency of stratospheric sudden warming events throughout all winter months. The potential role of this stratospheric response in the tropical Pacific–European teleconnection is investigated by sensitivity experiments in which the mean state and variability of the stratosphere are degraded. As a result, the observed stratospheric response to El Niño is suppressed and the mean sea level pressure response fails to resemble the temporal and spatial evolution of the observations. The results suggest that the stratosphere plays an active role in the European response to El Niño. A saturation mechanism whereby for the strongest El Niño events tropospheric forcing dominates the European response is suggested. This is examined by means of a sensitivity test and it is shown that under large El Niño forcing the European response is insensitive to stratospheric representation.

scholarly journals Links between Tropical Pacific SST and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 4647-4663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Cash ◽  
Xavier Rodó ◽  
James L. Kinter
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Physical Mechanism ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Bacterial Disease ◽  
Monsoon Circulation

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models indicate that there is a link between incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial disease (WBD) endemic to Bangladesh, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a physical mechanism explaining this relationship has not yet been established. A regionally coupled, or “pacemaker,” configuration of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies atmospheric general circulation model is used to investigate links between sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the regional climate of Bangladesh. It is found that enhanced precipitation tends to follow winter El Niño events in both the model and observations, providing a plausible physical mechanism by which ENSO could influence cholera in Bangladesh. The enhanced precipitation in the model arises from a modification of the summer monsoon circulation over India and Bangladesh. Westerly wind anomalies over land to the west of Bangladesh lead to increased convergence in the zonal wind field and hence increased moisture convergence and rainfall. This change in circulation results from the tropics-wide warming in the model following a winter El Niño event. These results suggest that improved forecasting of cholera incidence may be possible through the use of climate predictions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document