Analysis of the Nonlinearity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6225-6244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Frauen ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Nicholas Tyrrell ◽  
Michael Rezny ◽  
Scott Wales
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
Nonlinear Responses

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant variations and nonlinearities in its pattern and strength. ENSO events vary in their position along the equator, with some located in the central Pacific (CP) and others in the east Pacific (EP). To study how these variations are reflected in global ENSO teleconnections, both observations and idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations are analyzed. Clear nonlinearities exist in observed teleconnections of sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation. However, it is difficult to distinguish if these are caused by the different signs, strengths, or spatial patterns of events (strong El Niño events mostly being EP events and strong La Niña events mostly being CP events) or by combinations of these. Therefore, sensitivity experiments are performed with an AGCM forced with idealized EP and CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) patterns with varying signs and strengths. The response is generally stronger for warm events than for cold events and the teleconnection patterns vary with changing SST anomaly patterns. EP events show stronger nonlinearities than CP events. The nonlinear responses to ENSO events can be explained as a combination of nonlinear responses to a linear ENSO (fixed pattern but varying signs and strengths) and a linear response to a nonlinear ENSO (varying patterns). Any observed event is a combination of these aspects. While in most tropical regions these add up, leading to stronger nonlinear responses than expected from the single components, in some regions they cancel each other, resulting in little overall nonlinearity. This leads to strong regional differences in ENSO teleconnections.

scholarly journals Extratropical Influences on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation through the Late Quaternary

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 788-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. G. Bush
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Linear Stability Theory ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract A sequence of numerical simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model configured for particular times during the late Quaternary shows that simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events decrease in frequency from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today, in accord with linear stability theory, but increase in amplitude. Diagnostic analyses indicate that altered momentum fluxes from midlatitude eddy activity caused by changes in orbital forcing (in the Holocene) and topographic forcing (at the LGM) regulate the strength of climatological easterlies and therefore affect both the tropical mean state and the characteristics of interannual variability. The fact that climatic teleconnections associated with paleo-ENSO are fundamentally different during these times suggests a way in which to reconcile some of the existing discrepancies amongst interpretations of proxy records and numerical paleoclimate simulations.

scholarly journals Assessing Extratropical Influence on Observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation Events Using Regional Coupled Data Assimilation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. 8961-8969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feiyu Lu ◽  
Zhengyu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Variability ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Coupled Data Assimilation

The extratropical influence on the observed events of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability from 1948 to 2015 is assessed by constraining the extratropical atmospheric variability in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) using the regional coupled data assimilation (RCDA) method. The ensemble-mean ENSO response to extratropical atmospheric forcing, which is systematically and quantitatively studied through a series of RCDA experiments, indicates robust extratropical influence on some observed ENSO events. Furthermore, an event-by-event quantitative analysis shows significant differences of the extratropical influence among the observed ENSO events, both in its own strength and in its relation to tropical precursors such as the equatorial Pacific heat content anomaly. This study provides the first dynamic quantitative assessment of the extratropical influence on observed ENSO variability on an event-by-event basis.

Long term population changes of fur seals Arctocephalus gazella and Arctocephalus tropicalis on subantarctic (Crozet) and subtropical (St. Paul and Amsterdam) islands and their possible relationship to El Niño Southern Oscillation

1994 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 473-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Guinet ◽  
P. Jouventin ◽  
J-Y. Georges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Fur Seals ◽  
Fur Seal ◽  
Arctocephalus Tropicalis

The population trend over the last decade for subantarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus tropicalis) on Amsterdam and St. Paul islands and on Possession Island (Crozet Archipelago) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) on Possession Island are analysed. At Amsterdam Island, based on pup counts, the subantarctic fur seal population appears to have stabilized after a period of rapid growth. At Possession Island subantarctic fur seal and Antarctic fur seal, with respective annual growth rates of 19.2 and 17.4%, are reaching the maximum growth rate for the genus Arctocephalus. Annual pup censuses at Possession Island since 1978 indicate important variations from year to year with pup production for A. gazella significantly lower the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, but with no such relationship for A. tropicalis. Several other long term demographic studies of seabirds and marine mammals at different breeding locations in the Southern Ocean indicate that the breeding success of several of these predators appears to be widely affected in years which appear to be related to the ENSO events. To clarify this, it is necessary to analyse in more detail the demographic data obtained for the different subantarctic and Antarctic locations where long term monitoring programmes are conducted.

scholarly journals El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in Headwaters Region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 8521-8543 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Lü ◽  
S. Jia ◽  
H. Yan ◽  
S. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

Abstract. Many studies have examined that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could result in the variation of rainfall and runoff of different rivers across the world. In this paper, we will look specifically at the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River (HRYR) to explore the rainfall-ENSO and runoff-ENSO relationships and discuss the potential for water resources forecasting using these relationships. Cross-correlation analyses were performed to determine the significant correlation between rainfall, runoff and ENSO indicators (e.g. SOI, Niño 1.2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) and the lag period for each relationship. Main result include: (1) there are significant correlation at 95% confidence level during three periods, i.e. January and March, from September to November; (2) there were significant correlations between monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors during three periods, i.e. JFM, June, and OND, with lag periods between one and twelve months. As ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advances using physical model of coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicator in the HRYR can be extent to one to thirty-six months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecast tool for water resource in headwater regions of Yellow River.

scholarly journals ASSESSING CARBON SEQUESTRADED IN BRAZILIAN NORTHEASTERN BIOMES UNDER ENSO EVENTS

Gaia Scientia ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robson de Sousa Nascimento ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito ◽  
Valéria Peixoto Borges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Amazon Rainforest ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Caatinga Biome

The goal of the present study it was to know the behavior of the Net Primary Production (NPP) in years that have occurred El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and during the temperature anomalies of the surface of the Sea (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic, that is Atlantic Dipole. The results showed that the Amazon Rainforest, Atlantic Forest, and the Cerrado were not enough affected by the occurrence of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Dipole. However, the Caatinga biome has shown to be quite sensitive to these events and patterns, especially in years of occurrence of El Niño, which contributed to a reduction in NPP; while in years of El Niña and negative dipole, the NPP achieved the highest values. The amount of rainfall in the previous year to the El Niño Southern Oscillation episodes showed influence on the amount of carbon sequestered by biomes in the year of study.

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