scholarly journals Projected End-of-Century Changes in the South American Monsoon in the CESM Large Ensemble

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (18) ◽  
pp. 7859-7874
Author(s):  
Ana Claudia Thome Sena ◽  
Gudrun Magnusdottir
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
South American Monsoon ◽  
The Mean

AbstractProjected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon.

scholarly journals Daily Precipitation Statistics for South America: An Intercomparison between NCEP Reanalyses and Observations

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviane B. S. Silva ◽  
Vernon E. Kousky ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Central Brazil ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract In this study, the authors document the extent to which the precipitation statistics of the new CFS reanalysis (CFSR) represent an improvement over the earlier reanalyses: the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (R1) and the NCEP–DOE Second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis (R2). An intercomparison between the CFSR, R1, R2, and observations over South America was made for the period 1979–2006. The CFSR shows notable improvements in the large-scale precipitation patterns compared with the previous reanalyses (R1 and R2). In spite of these improvements, the CFSR has substantial biases in intensity and frequency of occurrence of rainfall events. Over west-central Brazil, the core region of the South American monsoon system (SAMS), the CFSR displays a dry bias during the onset phase of the SAMS wet season and a wet bias during the peak and decay phases of the SAMS wet season. The CFSR also displays a dry bias along the South American coast near the mouth of the Amazon and along the east coast of northeastern Brazil. A wet bias exists in all seasons over southeast Brazil and over the Andes Mountains.

scholarly journals The impact of the subtropical South Atlantic SST on South American precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3457-3476 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. Taschetto ◽  
I. Wainer
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract. The Community Climate Model (CCM3) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is used to investigate the effect of the South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual to decadal variability of South American precipitation. Two ensembles composed of multidecadal simulations forced with monthly SST data from the Hadley Centre for the period 1949 to 2001 are analysed. A statistical treatment based on signal-to-noise ratio and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) is applied to the ensembles in order to reduce the internal variability among the integrations. The ensemble treatment shows a spatial and temporal dependence of reproducibility. High degree of reproducibility is found in the tropics while the extratropics is apparently less reproducible. Austral autumn (MAM) and spring (SON) precipitation appears to be more reproducible over the South America-South Atlantic region than the summer (DJF) and winter (JJA) rainfall. While the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region is dominated by external variance, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) over South America is predominantly determined by internal variance, which makes it a difficult phenomenon to predict. Alternatively, the SACZ over western South Atlantic appears to be more sensitive to the subtropical SST anomalies than over the continent. An attempt is made to separate the atmospheric response forced by the South Atlantic SST anomalies from that associated with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that both the South Atlantic and Pacific SSTs modulate the intensity and position of the SACZ during DJF. Particularly, the subtropical South Atlantic SSTs are more important than ENSO in determining the position of the SACZ over the southeast Brazilian coast during DJF. On the other hand, the ENSO signal seems to influence the intensity of the SACZ not only in DJF but especially its oceanic branch during MAM. Both local and remote influences, however, are confounded by the large internal variance in the region. During MAM and JJA, the South Atlantic SST anomalies affect the magnitude and the meridional displacement of the ITCZ. In JJA, the ENSO has relatively little influence on the interannual variability of the simulated rainfall. During SON, however, the ENSO seems to counteract the effect of the subtropical South Atlantic SST variations on convection over South America.

scholarly journals Late Quaternary Variations in the South American Monsoon System as Inferred by Speleothems—New Perspectives using the SISAL Database

Quaternary ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Deininger ◽  
Brittany Marie Ward ◽  
Valdir F. Novello ◽  
Francisco W. Cruz
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
South American Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
South American Monsoon System

Here we present an overview of speleothem δ18O records from South America, most of which are available in the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL_v1) database. South American tropical and subtropical speleothem δ18O time series are primarily interpreted to reflect changes in precipitation amount, the amount effect, and consequently history of convection intensity variability of convergence zones such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South America Monsoon System (SAMS). We investigate past hydroclimate scenarios in South America related to the South American Monsoon System in three different time periods: Late Pleistocene, Holocene, and the last two millennia. Precession driven summertime insolation is the main driver of convective variability over the continent during the last 120 kyrs (from present day to 120 kyrs BP), including the Holocene. However, there is a dipole between speleothem δ18O records from western and eastern South America. Records located in the central region of Brazil are weakly affected by insolation-driven variability, and instead are more susceptible to the variability associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Cold episodic events in the Northern Hemisphere, such as Heinrich and Bond Events, and the Little Ice Age, increase the convective activity of the SAMS, resulting in increased precipitation amount in South America.

A Quaternary record of the big-eyed bat Chiroderma villosum (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) with a revised lower molar terminology

Mammalia ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme S.T. Garbino ◽  
Valéria da C. Tavares
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Historical Interpretation ◽  
Left Mandible ◽  
Lower Molar

Abstract We report the first Quaternary record of the big-eyed bat Chiroderma villosum from South America based on a left mandible fragment collected in the Gruta dos Brejões, late Quaternary of northeastern Brazil. This material has been identified over the course of our revisionary work of the genus Chiroderma, including all species distributed in South America (Chiroderma doriae, Chiroderma salvini, Chiroderma trinitatum, Chiroderma villosum and Chiroderma vizottoi). Our results revealed that several characters of the second lower molar (m2), and of the posterior mandible may be used to identify and to diagnose the South American Chiroderma. We also revisited the historical interpretation of homologies of the lower molar cusps of Chiroderma, and propose a revised molar cusp terminology.

scholarly journals A mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for eastern South America

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 2117-2133 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. F. Prado ◽  
I. Wainer ◽  
C. M. Chiessi ◽  
M.-P. Ledru ◽  
B. Turcq
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
South Atlantic Convergence Zone ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Summer Insolation

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 calibrated years before present) is a key period in palaeoclimatology because incoming summer insolation was lower than during the late Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas the opposite happened in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of the decreased austral summer insolation over South American climate have been poorly discussed by palaeodata syntheses. In addition, only a few of the regional studies have characterised the mid-Holocene climate in South America through a multiproxy approach. Here, we present a multiproxy compilation of mid-Holocene palaeoclimate data for eastern South America. We compiled 120 palaeoclimatological datasets, which were published in 84 different papers. The palaeodata analysed here suggest a water deficit scenario in the majority of eastern South America during the mid-Holocene if compared to the late Holocene, with the exception of northeastern Brazil. Low mid-Holocene austral summer insolation caused a reduced land–sea temperature contrast and hence a weakened South American monsoon system circulation. This scenario is represented by a decrease in precipitation over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone area, saltier conditions along the South American continental margin, and lower lake levels.

Precipitation Characteristics of the South American Monsoon System Derived from Multiple Datasets

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (13) ◽  
pp. 4600-4620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leila M. V. Carvalho ◽  
Charles Jones ◽  
Adolfo N. D. Posadas ◽  
Roberto Quiroz ◽  
Bodo Bookhagen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
South American Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
South American Monsoon System

Abstract The South American monsoon system (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America and is characterized by pronounced seasonality in precipitation during the austral summer. This study compares several statistical properties of daily gridded precipitation from different data (1998–2008): 1) Physical Sciences Division (PSD), Earth System Research Laboratory [1.0° and 2.5° latitude (lat)/longitude (lon)]; 2) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; 1° lat/lon); 3) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge (CPC-uni) (0.5° lat/lon); 4) NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (0.5° lat/lon); 5) NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis (0.5° lat/0.3° lon); and 6) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V6 data (0.25° lat/lon). The same statistical analyses are applied to data in 1) a common 2.5° lat/lon grid and 2) in the original resolutions of the datasets. All datasets consistently represent the large-scale patterns of the SAMS. The onset, demise, and duration of SAMS are consistent among PSD, GPCP, CPC-uni, and TRMM datasets, whereas CFSR and MERRA seem to have problems in capturing the correct timing of SAMS. Spectral analyses show that intraseasonal variance is somewhat similar in the six datasets. Moreover, differences in spatial patterns of mean precipitation are small among PSD, GPCP, CPC-uni, and TRMM data, while some discrepancies are found in CFSR and MERRA relative to the other datasets. Fitting of gamma frequency distributions to daily precipitation shows differences in the parameters that characterize the shape, scale, and tails of the frequency distributions. This suggests that significant uncertainties exist in the characterization of extreme precipitation, an issue that is highly important in the context of climate variability and change in South America.

scholarly journals The American monsoon system in HadGEM3 and UKESM1

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-371
Author(s):  
Jorge L. García-Franco ◽  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
Scott Osprey
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
South American ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The South ◽  
South American Monsoon ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Monsoon System

Abstract. The simulated climate of the American monsoon system (AMS) in the UK models HadGEM3 GC3.1 (GC3) and the Earth system model UKESM1 is assessed and compared to observations and reanalysis. We evaluate the pre-industrial control, AMIP and historical experiments of UKESM1 and two configurations of GC3: a low (1.875∘×1.25∘) and a medium (0.83∘×0.56∘) resolution. The simulations show a good representation of the seasonal cycle of temperature in monsoon regions, although the historical experiments overestimate the observed summer temperature in the Amazon, Mexico and Central America by more than 1.5 K. The seasonal cycle of rainfall and general characteristics of the North American monsoon of all the simulations agree well with observations and reanalysis, showing a notable improvement from previous versions of the HadGEM model. The models reasonably simulate the bimodal regime of precipitation in southern Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean known as the midsummer drought, although with a stronger-than-observed difference between the two peaks of precipitation and the dry period. Austral summer biases in the modelled Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), cloud cover and regional temperature patterns are significant and influence the simulated regional rainfall in the South American monsoon. These biases lead to an overestimation of precipitation in southeastern Brazil and an underestimation of precipitation in the Amazon. The precipitation biases over the Amazon and southeastern Brazil are greatly reduced in the AMIP simulations, highlighting that the Atlantic sea surface temperatures are key for representing precipitation in the South American monsoon. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections, of precipitation and temperature, to the AMS are reasonably simulated by all the experiments. The precipitation responses to the positive and negative phase of ENSO in subtropical America are linear in both pre-industrial and historical experiments. Overall, the biases in UKESM1 and the low-resolution configuration of GC3 are very similar for precipitation, ITCZ and Walker circulation; i.e. the inclusion of Earth system processes appears to make no significant difference for the representation of the AMS rainfall. In contrast, the medium-resolution HadGEM3 N216 simulation outperforms the low-resolution simulations due to improved SSTs and circulation.

South American climatic response to changes in the tropical South Atlantic Ocean hydrography during Termination 1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl J. F. Meier ◽  
Andrea Jaeschke ◽  
Julia Hoffmann ◽  
Barbara Hennrich ◽  
Oliver Friedrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Brazil Current ◽  
South American Climate ◽  
Tropical South America

<p>Rapid climatic reorganizations during the last Termination (i.e. Heinrich Stadials 0-1) had major impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength and on global atmospheric circulation patterns. However, if and how this high-latitude forcing affected low-latitude climate variability is still poorly constrained. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record from marine sediment core M125-3-35 recovered in the western tropical South Atlantic combining foraminiferal Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca ratios, stable oxygen isotope measurements and organic biomarker-based sea surface temperature (SST) proxies (TEX86 and UK’37). The near-shore core position of M125-3-35 off the Paraíba do Sul river mouth in southeastern Brazil and the means of foraminiferal Ba/Ca ratios, which depends on the quantity of continental freshwater input, enables us to investigate direct coupling of continental hydroclimate and oceanographic changes.</p><p>The data show a complex interplay of oceanic and atmospheric forcing dominating the tropical South American climate, which is mainly controlled by the strength and position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). During times of weakest AMOC in Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) , a distinct SST peak in the tropical South Atlantic points to an enhanced Brazil Current and strong recirculation of heat within the southern hemisphere. Further, wet conditions prevailed during this time in tropical South America caused by a maximum southward shift of the ITCZ. This happened in coincidence with a temperature drop and weakening of the North Brazil Current (NBC) in the tropical North Atlantic (Bahr et al., 2018) as result of maximum AMOC slowdown. Therefore, for the first time, we reveal a clear seesaw-like pattern of the NBC and BC during times of abrupt AMOC variability.</p><p>While HS1 is generally characterized by a warm and wet anomaly in our record, Ba/Ca ratios and SST show a distinct centennial-scale alternation between warmer (colder) and wetter (drier) phases indicating a distinct climate instability during this climatic phase. A distinct offset exists between SST reconstructed using Mg/Ca, TEX86, and UK’37 which points to strong seasonal differences in the oceanographic settings and/or changes in the terrestrial input from the south American continent. These findings illustrate the strong sensitivity of hydroclimate variability in tropical South America to oceanic forcing as expected also during future climate change, in line with recent studies that showed a severe impact on modern South American climate by changes in (tropical) South Atlantic SSTs (Rodrigues et al., 2019, Utida et al., 2018).</p><p> </p><p>Bahr, A., Hoffmann, J., Schönfeld, J., Schmidt, M. W., Nürnberg, D., Batenburg, S. J., & Voigt, S. (2018). Low-latitude expressions of high-latitude forcing during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas in northern South America. <em>Global and Planetary Change, 160</em>, 1-9.</p><p>Rodrigues, R. R., Taschetto, A. S., Gupta, A. S., & Foltz, G. R. (2019). Common cause for severe droughts in South America and marine heatwaves in the South Atlantic. <em>Nature Geoscience, 12</em>(8), 620-626.</p><p>UTIDA, Giselle, et al. Tropical South Atlantic influence on Northeastern Brazil precipitation and ITCZ displacement during the past 2300 years. <em>Scientific reports</em>, 2019, 9. Jg., Nr. 1, S. 1698.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document