The Historic Rainfalls of Hurricanes Harvey and Florence: A Perspective from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Martinaitis ◽  
Stephen B. Cocks ◽  
Andrew P. Osborne ◽  
Micheal J. Simpson ◽  
Lin Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Network ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Correction Scheme ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Multiple Regions ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
States History

AbstractHurricane Harvey in 2017 generated one of the most catastrophic rainfall events in United States history. Numerous gauge observations in Texas exceeded 1200 mm, and the record accumulations resulted in 65 direct fatalities from rainfall-induced flooding. This was followed by Hurricane Florence in 2018 where multiple regions in North Carolina received over 750 mm of rainfall. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system provides the unique perspective of applying fully-automated seamless radar mosaics and locally gauge-corrected products for these two historical tropical cyclone rainfall events. This study investigates the performance of various MRMS quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products as it pertains to rare extreme tropical cyclone rainfall events. Various biases were identified in the radar-only approaches, which were mitigated in a new dual-polarimetric synthetic radar QPE approach. A local gauge correction of radar-derived QPE provided statistical improvements over the radar-only products but introduced consistent underestimation biases attributed to undercatch from tropical cyclone winds. This study then introduces a conceptual methodology to bulk correct for gauge wind undercatch across the numerous gauge networks ingested by the MRMS system. Adjusting the hourly gauge observations for wind undercatch resulted in increased storm-total accumulations for both tropical cyclones that better matched independent gauge observations, yet its application across large network collections highlighted the challenges of applying a singular wind undercatch correction scheme for significant wind events (e.g., tropical cyclones) while recognizing the need for increased metadata on gauge characteristics.

Hurricane “Amanda”: Rediscovery of a Forgotten U.S. Civil War Florida Hurricane

2013 ◽  
Vol 94 (11) ◽  
pp. 1735-1742 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Chenoweth ◽  
C. J. Mock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
The U.S ◽  
States History

Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently rediscovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event—in this case, the U.S. Civil War. The authors document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it “Hurricane Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern databases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins.

scholarly journals Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation improvement in Champagne vineyard.

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 02013
Author(s):  
Basile PAUTHIER ◽  
Sébastien DEBUISSON ◽  
Arnaud DESCOTES ◽  
Julien PERGAUD ◽  
Sylvain MAILLARD
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Nitrogen Mineralization ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Crucial Importance ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
External Drift

Rainfall has a crucial importance in viticulture, especially in Champagne vineyards, where irrigation is prohibited. Rainfall directly influences the phytosanitary pressure, nitrogen mineralization, flowering conditions, parcel practicability, soil erosion etc… In these conditions, implementing a weather stations network is the solution that the Comité Champagne chose to monitor rainfall all over the Champagne appellation since the 1990's. This networks is actually composed of 42 weather stations implemented in order to have the best spatial coverage as possible. The Comité Champagne also obtain some weather stations data from Météo France, the French national weather service. Even with that network, capturing all rainfall events accurately is difficult, especially in convective cases. Therefore, the interest in radar data has increased, to capture rainfall everywhere. Some tests have been previously made with PANTHERE radar data from Météo France with a resolution of 1 km2, results were promising, but presented inaccuracies particularly in convective events. In this article, we use a radar merging technique similar to the ANTILOPE method from Météo France, with a higher resolution network. The tool employed is the Estimages toolbox merger, based on krigine with external drift (KED) which has been demonstrated to give good results in quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) improvement.

scholarly journals A Dynamical Z-R Relationship for Precipitation Estimation Based on Radar Echo-Top Height Classification

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxin Wu ◽  
Haibo Zou ◽  
Jiusheng Shan ◽  
Shanshan Wu
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
The Other ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Short Time

Using echo-top height and hourly rainfall datasets, a new reflectivity-rainfall (Z-R) relationship is established in the present study for the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (RQPE), taking into account both the temporal evolution (dynamical) and the types of echoes (i.e., based on echo-top height classification). The new Z-R relationship is then applied to derive the RQPE over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River for two short-time intense rainfall cases in summer (2200 UTC 1 June 2016 and 2200 UTC 18 June 2016) and one stratiform rainfall case in winter (0000 UTC 15 December 2017), and then the comparative analyses between the RQPE and the RQPEs derived by the other two methods (the fixed Z-R relationship and the dynamical Z-R relationship based on radar reflectivity classification) are accomplished. The results show that the RQPE from the new Z-R relationship is much closer to the observation than those from the other two methods because the new method simultaneously considers the echo intensity (reflecting the size and concentration of hydrometers to a certain extent) and the echo-top height (reflecting the updraft to a certain extent). Two statistics of 720 rainfall events in summer (April to June 2017) and 50 rainfall events in winter (December 2017) over the same region show that the correlation coefficient (root-mean-squared error and relative error) between RQPE derived by the new Z-R relationship and observation is significantly increased (decreased) compared to the other two Z-R relationships. Besides, the new Z-R relationship is also good at estimating rainfall with different intensities as compared to the other two methods, especially for the intense rainfall.

scholarly journals C-Band Polarimetric Radar QPE Based on Specific Differential Propagation Phase for Extreme Typhoon Rainfall

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1354-1370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yadong Wang ◽  
Jian Zhang ◽  
Alexander V. Ryzhkov ◽  
Lin Tang
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Drop Shape ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Typhoon Rainfall

Abstract To obtain accurate radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for extreme rainfall events such as land-falling typhoon systems in complex terrain, a new method was developed for C-band polarimetric radars. The new methodology includes a correction method based on vertical profiles of the specific differential propagation phase (VPSDP) for low-level blockage and an optimal relation between rainfall rate () and the specific differential phase (). In the VPSDP-based correction approach, a screening process is applied to fields, where missing or unreliable data from lower tilts caused by severe beam blockage are replaced with data from upper and unblocked tilts. The data from upper tilts are adjusted to account for variations in the vertical profile of . The corrected field is then used for rain-rate estimations. To acquire an accurate QPE result, a new relation for C-band polarimetric radars was derived through simulations using drop size distribution (DSD) and drop shape relation (DSR) observations from typhoon systems in Taiwan. The VPSDP-based correction method with the new relation was evaluated using the typhoon cases of Morakot (2009) and Fanapi (2010).

scholarly journals A Prototype Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Algorithm for Operational S-Band Polarimetric Radar Utilizing Specific Attenuation and Specific Differential Phase. Part II: Performance Verification and Case Study Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 999-1014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen B. Cocks ◽  
Lin Tang ◽  
Pengfei Zhang ◽  
Alexander Ryzhkov ◽  
Brian Kaney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Estimation Algorithm ◽  
Differential Phase ◽  
Specific Attenuation ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Bias Ratio ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) algorithm developed and described in Part I was validated using data collected from 33 Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D) radars on 37 calendar days east of the Rocky Mountains. A key physical parameter to the algorithm is the parameter alpha α, defined as the ratio of specific attenuation A to specific differential phase KDP. Examination of a significant sample of tropical and continental precipitation events indicated that α was sensitive to changes in drop size distribution and exhibited lower (higher) values when there were lower (higher) concentrations of larger (smaller) rain drops. As part of the performance assessment, the prototype algorithm generated QPEs utilizing a real-time estimated and a fixed α were created and evaluated. The results clearly indicated ~26% lower errors and a 26% better bias ratio with the QPE utilizing a real-time estimated α as opposed to using a fixed value as was done in previous studies. Comparisons between the QPE utilizing a real-time estimated α and the operational dual-polarization (dual-pol) QPE used on the WSR-88D radar network showed the former exhibited ~22% lower errors, 7% less bias, and 5% higher correlation coefficient when compared to quality controlled gauge totals. The new QPE also provided much better estimates for moderate to heavy precipitation events and performed better in regions of partial beam blockage than the operational dual-pol QPE.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Deo ◽  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Hamish Ramsay ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook ◽  
Simon McGree ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Inactive Phase ◽  
Pacific Island Nations

AbstractSouthwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

scholarly journals Are Special Processes at Work in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (3) ◽  
pp. 878-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Kowch ◽  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Open Ocean ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Exponential Distributions ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Fat Tail ◽  
Dissipation Rates ◽  
Special Factors

Abstract Probably not. Frequency distributions of intensification and dissipation developed from synthetic open-ocean tropical cyclone data show no evidence of significant departures from exponential distributions, though there is some evidence for a fat tail of dissipation rates. This suggests that no special factors govern high intensification rates and that tropical cyclone intensification and dissipation are controlled by statistically random environmental and internal variability.

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