scholarly journals Large-Scale Flow and the Long-Lasting Blocking High over Russia: Summer 2010

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (9) ◽  
pp. 2967-2981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Schneidereit ◽  
Silke Schubert ◽  
Pavel Vargin ◽  
Frank Lunkeit ◽  
Xiuhua Zhu ◽  
...  

Abstract Several studies show that the anomalous long-lasting Russian heat wave during the summer of 2010, linked to a long-persistent blocking high, appears mainly as a result of natural atmospheric variability. This study analyzes the large-scale flow structure based on the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) data (1989–2010). The anomalous long-lasting blocking high over western Russia including the heat wave occurs as an overlay of a set of anticyclonic contributions on different time scales. (i) A regime change in ENSO toward La Niña modulates the quasi-stationary wave structure in the boreal summer hemisphere supporting the eastern European blocking. The polar Arctic dipole mode is enhanced and shows a projection on the mean blocking high. (ii) Together with the quasi-stationary wave anomaly, the transient eddies maintain the long-lasting blocking. (iii) Three different pathways of wave action are identified on the intermediate time scale (~10–60 days). One pathway commences over the eastern North Pacific and includes the polar Arctic region; another one runs more southward and crossing the North Atlantic, continues to eastern Europe; a third pathway southeast of the blocking high describes the downstream development over South Asia.

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 617-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximo Q. Menchaca ◽  
Dale R. Durran

Abstract The interaction of a midlatitude cyclone with an isolated north–south mountain barrier is examined using numerical simulation. A prototypical cyclone develops from an isolated disturbance in a baroclinically unstable shear flow upstream of the ridge, producing a cold front that interacts strongly with the topography. The structure and evolution of the lee waves launched by the topography are analyzed, including their temporal and their north–south variation along the ridge. Typical mountain wave patterns are generated by a 500-m-high mountain, but these waves often exhibit significant differences from the waves produced in 2D or 3D simulations with steady large-scale-flow structures corresponding to the instantaneous conditions over the mountain in the evolving flow. When the mountain height is 2 km, substantial wave breaking occurs, both at low levels in the lee and in the lower stratosphere. Despite the north–south uniformity of the terrain profile, large north–south variations are apparent in wave structure and downslope winds. In particular, for a 24-h period beginning after the cold front passes the upstream side of the ridge toward the south, strong downslope winds occur only in the northern half of the lee of the ridge. Just prior to this period, the movement of the cold front across the northern lee slopes is complex and accompanied by a burst of strong downslope winds and intense vertical velocities.


2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (10) ◽  
pp. 3159-3178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gwendal Rivière

Barotropic dynamics of upper-tropospheric midlatitude disturbances evolving in different configurations of the zonal weather regime (i.e., in different zonal-like large-scale flows) were studied using observational analyses and barotropic model experiments. The contraction stage of upper-level disturbances that follows their elongation stage leads to an increase of eddy kinetic energy that is called the barotropic regeneration process in this text. This barotropic mechanism is studied through notions of barotropic critical regions (BtCRs) and effective deformation that have been introduced in a previous paper. The effective deformation field is equal to the difference between the square of the large-scale deformation magnitude and the square of the large-scale vorticity. Regions where the effective deformation is positive correspond to regions where the large-scale flow tends to strongly stretch synoptic disturbances. A BtCR is an area separating two large-scale regions of positive effective deformation, one located upstream and on the south side of the jet and the other downstream and on the north side. Such a region presents a discontinuity in the orientation of the dilatation axes and is a potential area where the barotropic regeneration process may occur. Winter days presenting a zonal weather regime in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis dataset are decomposed, via a partitioning algorithm, into different configurations of the effective deformation field at 300 hPa. A six-cluster partition is obtained. Composite maps of the barotropic generation rate for each cluster exhibit a succession of negative and positive values on both sides of the BtCRs. It confirms statistically that the barotropic regeneration mechanism occurs preferentially about BtCRs. Numerical experiments using a forced barotropic model on the sphere are performed. Each experiment consists of adding a synoptic-scale perturbation to one of the zonal-like jet configurations found in observations, which is kept fixed with time. The combined effects of the effective deformation and nonlinearities are shown to be crucial to reproduce the barotropic regeneration process about BtCRs.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2511-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clio Michel ◽  
Annick Terpstra ◽  
Thomas Spengler

Polar mesoscale cyclones (PMCs) are automatically detected and tracked over the Nordic seas using the Melbourne University algorithm applied to ERA-Interim. The novelty of this study lies in the length of the dataset (1979–2014), using PMC tracks to infer relationships to large-scale flow patterns, and elucidating the sensitivity to different selection criteria when defining PMCs and polar lows and their genesis environments. The angle between the ambient mean and thermal wind is used to distinguish two different PMC genesis environments. The forward shear environment (thermal and mean wind have the same direction) features typical baroclinic conditions with a temperature gradient at the surface and a strong jet stream at the tropopause. The reverse shear environment (thermal and mean wind have opposite directions) features an occluded cyclone with a barotropic structure throughout the entire troposphere and a low-level jet. In contrast to previous studies, PMC occurrence features neither a significant trend nor a significant link with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian blocking (SB), though the SB negative pattern seems to promote reverse shear PMC genesis. The sea ice extent in the Nordic seas is not associated with overall changes in PMC occurrence but influences the genesis location. Selected cold air outbreak indices and the temperature difference between the sea surface and 500 hPa (SST − T500) show no robust link with PMC occurrence, but the characteristics of forward shear PMCs and their synoptic environments are sensitive to the choice of the SST − T500 threshold.


2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9166-9187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh ◽  
Gilbert P. Compo ◽  
Cécile Penland

Abstract Given the reality of anthropogenic global warming, it is tempting to seek an anthropogenic component in any recent change in the statistics of extreme weather. This paper cautions that such efforts may, however, lead to wrong conclusions if the distinctively skewed and heavy-tailed aspects of the probability distributions of daily weather anomalies are ignored or misrepresented. Departures of several standard deviations from the mean, although rare, are far more common in such a distinctively non-Gaussian world than they are in a Gaussian world. This further complicates the problem of detecting changes in tail probabilities from historical records of limited length and accuracy. A possible solution is to exploit the fact that the salient non-Gaussian features of the observed distributions are captured by so-called stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distributions that include Gaussian distributions as special cases. SGS distributions are associated with damped linear Markov processes perturbed by asymmetric stochastic noise and as such represent the simplest physically based prototypes of the observed distributions. The tails of SGS distributions can also be directly linked to generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The Markov process model can be used to provide rigorous confidence intervals and to investigate temporal persistence statistics. The procedure is illustrated for assessing changes in the observed distributions of daily wintertime indices of large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors over the period 1872–2011. No significant changes in these indices are found from the first to the second half of the period.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Barras ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Luca Nisi ◽  
Katharina Schroeer ◽  
Alessandro Hering ◽  
...  

Abstract. In Switzerland, hail regularly occurs in multi-day hail clusters. The atmospheric conditions prior to and during multi-day hail clusters are described and contrasted to the conditions prior to and during isolated hail days. The analysis focuses on hail days that occurred between April and September 2002–2019 within 140 km of the Swiss radar network. Hail days north and south of the Alps are defined using a minimum area threshold of a radar-based hail product. Multi-day clusters are defined as 5-day windows containing 4 or 5 hail days and isolated hail days as 5-day windows containing a single hail day. The reanalysis ERA-5 is used to study the large-scale flow in combination with objectively identified cold fronts, atmospheric blocking events, and a weather type classification. Both north and south of the Alps, isolated hail days have frequency maxima in May and August-September whereas clustered hail days occur mostly in July and August. Composites of atmospheric variables indicate a more stationary and meridionally amplified atmospheric flow both north and south of the Alps during multi-day hail clusters. On clustered hail days north of the Alps, blocks are more frequent over the North Sea, and surface fronts are located farther from Switzerland than on isolated hail days. Clustered hail days north of the Alps are also characterized by significantly higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) values, warmer daily maximum surface temperatures, and higher atmospheric moisture content than isolated hail days. Hence, both stationary flow conditions and anomalous amounts of moisture are necessary for multi-day hail clusters on the north side. In contrast, differences in CAPE on the south side between clustered hail days and isolated hail days are small. The mean sea level pressure south of the Alps is significantly deeper, the maximum temperature is colder, and local moisture is significantly lower on isolated hail days. Both north and south of the Alps, the upper-level atmospheric flow over the eastern Atlantic is meridionally more amplified three days prior to clustered hail days than prior to isolated days. Moreover, Moreover blocking occurs prior to more than 10 % of clustered hail days over Scandinavia, but no blocks occur prior to isolated hail days. Half of the clustered hail days south of the Alps are also clustered north of the Alps. On hail days clustering only south of the Alps, fronts are more frequently located on the Alpine ridge, and local low- level winds are stronger. The temporal clustering of hail days is coupled to specific synoptic- and local- scale flow conditions, this information may be exploited for short to medium-range forecasts of hail in Switzerland.


2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1033-1051 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Thouret ◽  
J.-P. Cammas ◽  
B. Sauvage ◽  
G. Athier ◽  
R. Zbinden ◽  
...  

Abstract. The MOZAIC programme collects ozone and water vapour data using automatic equipment installed on board five long-range Airbus A340 aircraft flying regularly all over the world since August 1994. Those measurements made between September 1994 and August 1996 allowed the first accurate ozone climatology at 9–12 km altitude to be generated. The seasonal variability of the tropopause height has always provided a problem when constructing climatologies in this region. To remove any signal from the seasonal and synoptic scale variability in tropopause height we have chosen in this further study of these and subsequent data to reference our climatology to the altitude of the tropopause. We define the tropopause as a mixing zone 30 hPa thick across the 2 pvu potential vorticity surface. A new ozone climatology is now available for levels characteristic of the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause over the period 1994–2003. Moreover, this new presentation has allowed an estimation of the monthly mean climatological ozone concentration at the tropopause showing a sine seasonal variation with a maximum in May (120 ppbv) and a minimum in November (65 ppbv). Besides, we present a first assessment of the inter-annual variability of ozone in this particular critical region. The overall increase in the UTLS is about 1%/yr for the 9 years sampled. However, enhanced concentrations about 10–15 % higher than the other years were recorded in 1998 and 1999 in both the UT and the LS. This so-called "1998–1999 anomaly" may be attributed to a combination of different processes involving large scale modes of atmospheric variability, circulation features and local or global pollution, but the most dominant one seems to involve the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as we find a strong positive correlation (above 0.60) between ozone recorded in the upper troposphere and the NAO index. A strong anti-correlation is also found between ozone and the extremes of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index, attributing the lower stratospheric variability to dynamical anomalies. Finally this analysis highlights the coupling between the troposphere, at least the upper one, and the stratosphere, at least the lower one.


1976 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis P. Bretherton ◽  
Dale B. Haidvogel

In a turbulent two-dimensional flow enstrophy systematically cascades to very small scales, at which it is dissipated. The kinetic energy, on the other hand, remains at large scales and the total kinetic energy is constant. Above random topography an initially turbulent flow tends to a steady state with streamlines parallel to contours of constant depth, anticyclonic around a bump. A numerical experiment verifies this prediction. In a closed basin on a beta-plane the solution with minimum enstrophy implies a westward flow in the interior, returning in narrow boundary layers to the north and south. This result is interpreted using a parameterization of the effects of the eddies on the large-scale flow. The numerical solution is in qualitative agreement, but corresponds to a minimum of a more complex measure of the total enstrophy than the usual quadratic integral.


2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Luz Fernández de Puelles ◽  
Juan Carlos Molinero

Abstract Fernández de Puelles, M. L., and Molinero, J. C. 2008. Decadal changes in hydrographic and ecological time-series in the Balearic Sea (western Mediterranean), identifying links between climate and zooplankton. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 311–317. We investigated possible relationships between climate, hydrography, and zooplankton abundance in the Balearic Sea (BS), during a 10-year survey period spanning January 1994 to December 2003. It was demonstrated that large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean acts as a driver of regional meteorological variations and hydrographic patterns in the BS. The results also revealed that the variability of copepods, appendicularians, cladocerans, siphonophores, doliolids, and ostracods is closely related to variations in water temperature recorded during strong anomalies of the NA climate (>1 s.d.). Although the time-series that we analysed cover a period that is relatively short for investigating climate effects on marine ecosystems, the statistical results reported were consistent enough to emphasize the NA’s climate effect on the BS. The cascade of links identified by these results should be considered and integrated into the assessment and modelling studies of pelagic ecosystem and biogeochemical fluxes in the western Mediterranean Sea.


2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 1219-1235 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Ebbesen ◽  
A. Kuijpers ◽  
M. Moros ◽  
J. Lloyd ◽  
M.-S. Seidenkrantz ◽  
...  

Abstract. The North Atlantic cooling event at 8200 calibrated (cal) yr BP has been attributed to effects of an extensive freshwater discharge from the Hudson Strait (Barber et al., 1999; Leverington et al., 2002). Here we present sedimentary records from 5 cores collected from the Greenland shelf. These document high magnetic susceptibility (MS) values related to massive silt deposition, which is ascribed to large-scale melt water outflow from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) spanning the centuries before 8200 cal yr BP and ending after 8000 cal yr BP. XRF trace element composition and foraminiferal fauna's provide additional evidence for excessive melt-water production, which can be related to early Holocene warming of the circum-Arctic region including Greenland. Planktonic foraminiferal fauna data from the southern Davis Strait indicate the widespread presence of negative salinity anomalies reaching far offshore Greenland. Significant freshening of surface waters around Greenland prior to 8200 cal yr BP must have led to a slowdown of the deep-water formation which thus implies that significant melting of the GIS should be taken into account when discussing driving mechanisms behind the 8200 cal yr BP cooling event.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 5441-5488 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Thouret ◽  
J.-P. Cammas ◽  
B. Sauvage ◽  
G. Athier ◽  
R. Zbinden ◽  
...  

Abstract. The MOZAIC programme collects ozone and water vapour data using automatic equipment installed on board five long-range Airbus A340 aircraft flying regularly all over the world since August 1994. Those measurements made between September 1994 and August 1996 allowed the first accurate ozone climatology at 9–12 km altitude to be generated. The seasonal variability of the tropopause height has always provided a problem when constructing climatologies in this region. To remove any signal from the seasonal and synoptic scale variability in tropopause height we have chosen in this further study of these and subsequent data to reference our climatology to the altitude of the tropopause. We define the tropopause as a mixing zone 30 hPa thick across the 2 pvu potential vorticity surface. A new ozone climatology is now available for levels characteristic of the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause over the period 1994–2003. More over, this new presentation has allowed an estimation of the monthly mean climatological ozone concentration at the tropopause showing a sine seasonal variation with a maximum in May (120 ppbv) and a minimum in November (65 ppbv). Besides, we present a first assessment of the inter-annual variability of ozone in this particular critical region. The overall increase in the UTLS is about 1%/yr for the 9 years sampled. However, enhanced concentrations about 10–15% higher than the other years were recorded in 1998 and 1999 in both the UT and the LS. This so-called "1998–1999 anomaly'' may be attributed to a combination of different processes involving large scale modes of atmospheric variability, circulation features and local or global pollution, but the most dominant one seems to involve the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as we find a strong positive correlation (above 0.60) between ozone recorded in the upper troposphere and the NAO index. A strong anti-correlation is also found between ozone and the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index, attributing the lower stratospheric variability to dynamical anomalies. Finally this analysis highlights the coupling between the troposphere, at least the upper one, and the stratosphere, at least the lower one.


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