scholarly journals A 10-Year Survey of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States Using Gridded Multisensor Precipitation Analyses

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (9) ◽  
pp. 3147-3162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie N. Stevenson ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Maximum Minimum

Extreme rainfall events in the central and eastern United States during 2002–11 were identified using NCEP stage-IV precipitation analyses. Precipitation amounts were compared against established 50- and 100-yr recurrence interval thresholds for 1-, 6-, and 24-h durations. The authors identified points where analyzed precipitation exceeded the threshold, and combined points associated with the same weather system into events. At shorter durations, points exceeding the thresholds were most common in the Southeast, whereas points were more uniformly distributed for the 24-h duration. Most 24-h events have more points than the other durations, reflecting the importance of organized precipitation systems on longer temporal scales. Though monthly peaks varied by region, the maximum (minimum) usually occurred during the summer (winter); however, the 24-h point maximum occurred in September owing to tropical cyclones. The maximum (minimum) in hourly extreme rainfall points occurred at 2300 (1100) LST, though there were regional differences in the timing of the diurnal maxima and minima. Over half of 100-yr, 24-h events were a result of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), with synoptic and tropical systems responsible for nearly one-third and one-tenth, respectively. Of the 10 events with the most points exceeding this threshold, 5 were associated with tropical cyclones, 3 were synoptic events, and 2 were MCSs. Among the MCS events, 7 of the top 10 were training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS). While the 49 TL/AS events investigated further had similar moisture availability, the more widespread events had stronger low-level winds, stronger warm air advection, and stronger and more expansive frontogenesis in the inflow.

scholarly journals Can the GPM IMERG Final Product Accurately Represent MCSs’ Precipitation Characteristics over the Central and Eastern United States?

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjun Cui ◽  
Xiquan Dong ◽  
Baike Xi ◽  
Zhe Feng ◽  
Jiwen Fan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
False Alarm ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Precipitation Measurement ◽  
Precipitation Characteristics ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Global Precipitation

AbstractMesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in water and energy cycles as they produce heavy rainfall and modify the radiative profile in the tropics and midlatitudes. An accurate representation of MCSs’ rainfall is therefore crucial in understanding their impact on the climate system. The V06B Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals from Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation final product is a useful tool to study the precipitation characteristics of MCSs because of its global coverage and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. However, errors and uncertainties in IMERG should be quantified before applying it to hydrology and climate applications. This study evaluates IMERG performance on capturing and detecting MCSs’ precipitation in the central and eastern United States during a 3-yr study period against the radar-based Stage IV product. The tracked MCSs are divided into four seasons and are analyzed separately for both datasets. IMERG shows a wet bias in total precipitation but a dry bias in hourly mean precipitation during all seasons due to the false classification of nonprecipitating pixels as precipitating. These false alarm events are possibly caused by evaporation under the cloud base or the misrepresentation of MCS cold anvil regions as precipitating clouds by the algorithm. IMERG agrees reasonably well with Stage IV in terms of the seasonal spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of MCSs precipitation. A relative humidity (RH)-based correction has been applied to the IMERG precipitation product, which helps reduce the number of false alarm pixels and improves the overall performance of IMERG with respect to Stage IV.

scholarly journals Regional Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall Extracted from TRMM PR Measurements

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 8151-8169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atsushi Hamada ◽  
Yuki Murayama ◽  
Yukari N. Takayabu
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Characteristics and global distribution of regional extreme rainfall are presented using 12 yr of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) measurements. By considering each rainfall event as a set of contiguous PR rainy pixels, characteristic values for each event are obtained. Regional extreme rainfall events are defined as those in which maximum near-surface rainfall rates are higher than the corresponding 99.9th percentile on a 2.5° × 2.5° horizontal-resolution grid. The geographical distribution of extreme rainfall rates shows clear regional differences. The size and volumetric rainfall of extreme events also show clear regional differences. Extreme rainfall rates show good correlations with the corresponding rain-top heights and event sizes over oceans but marginal or no correlation over land. The time of maximum occurrence of extreme rainfall events tends to be during 0000–1200 LT over oceans, whereas it has a distinct afternoon peak over land. There are also clear seasonal differences in which the occurrence over land is largely coincident with insolation. Regional extreme rainfall is classified by extreme rainfall rate (intensity) and the corresponding event size (extensity). Regions of “intense and extensive” extreme rainfall are found mainly over oceans near coastal areas and are likely associated with tropical cyclones and convective systems associated with the establishment of monsoons. Regions of “intense but less extensive” extreme rainfall are distributed widely over land and maritime continents, probably related to afternoon showers and mesoscale convective systems. Regions of “extensive but less intense” extreme rainfall are found almost exclusively over oceans, likely associated with well-organized mesoscale convective systems and extratropical cyclones.

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern United States: Hurricane Irene (2011)

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2883-2904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
James A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Mountainous Terrain ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Rainfall Distribution ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Hurricane Irene ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Hurricane Irene produced catastrophic rainfall and flooding in portions of the eastern United States from 27 to 29 August 2011. Like a number of tropical cyclones that have produced extreme flooding in the northeastern United States, Hurricane Irene was undergoing extratropical transition during the period of most intense rainfall. In this study the rainfall distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones is examined, principally through analyses of radar rainfall fields and high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. In addition to extratropical transition, the changing storm environment at landfall and orographic precipitation mechanisms can be important players in controlling the distribution of extreme rainfall. Rainfall distribution from landfalling tropical cyclones is examined from a Lagrangian perspective, focusing on times of landfall and extratropical transition, as well as interactions of the storm circulation with mountainous terrain. WRF simulations capture important features of rainfall distribution, including the pronounced change in rainfall distribution during extratropical transition. Synoptic-scale analyses show that a deep baroclinic zone developed and strengthened in the left-front quadrant of Irene, controlling rainfall distribution over the regions experiencing most severe flooding. Numerical experiments were performed with WRF to examine the role of mountainous terrain in altering rainfall distribution. Analyses of Hurricane Irene are placed in a larger context through analyses of Hurricane Hannah (2008) and Hurricane Sandy (2012).

scholarly journals Object-Based Comparison of Data-Driven and Physics-Driven Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 2759-2776
Author(s):  
Zhe Li ◽  
Daniel B. Wright ◽  
Sara Q. Zhang ◽  
Dalia B. Kirschbaum ◽  
Samantha H. Hartke
Keyword(s):  
Wrf Model ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Physically Based

AbstractThe Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation of spaceborne sensors provides a variety of direct and indirect measurements of precipitation processes. Such observations can be employed to derive spatially and temporally consistent gridded precipitation estimates either via data-driven retrieval algorithms or by assimilation into physically based numerical weather models. We compare the data-driven Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and the assimilation-enabled NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model against Stage IV reference precipitation for four major extreme rainfall events in the southeastern United States using an object-based analysis framework that decomposes gridded precipitation fields into storm objects. As an alternative to conventional “grid-by-grid analysis,” the object-based approach provides a promising way to diagnose spatial properties of storms, trace them through space and time, and connect their accuracy to storm types and input data sources. The evolution of two tropical cyclones are generally captured by IMERG and NU-WRF, while the less organized spatial patterns of two mesoscale convective systems pose challenges for both. NU-WRF rain rates are generally more accurate, while IMERG better captures storm location and shape. Both show higher skill in detecting large, intense storms compared to smaller, weaker storms. IMERG’s accuracy depends on the input microwave and infrared data sources; NU-WRF does not appear to exhibit this dependence. Findings highlight that an object-oriented view can provide deeper insights into satellite precipitation performance and that the satellite precipitation community should further explore the potential for “hybrid” data-driven and physics-driven estimates in order to make optimal usage of satellite observations.

scholarly journals Mixture Distributions and the Hydroclimatology of Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in the Eastern United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Smith ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Mary Lynn Baeck
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Storm Evolution ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Flooding in the eastern United States reflects a mixture of flood-generating mechanisms, with landfalling tropical cyclones and extratropical systems playing central roles. The authors examine the climatology of heavy rainfall and flood magnitudes for the eastern United States through analyses of long-duration records of flood peaks and maximum daily rainfall series. Spatial heterogeneities in flood peak distributions due to orographic precipitation mechanisms in mountainous terrain, coastal circulations near land–ocean boundaries, and urbanization impacts on regional climate are central elements of flood peak distributions. Lagrangian analyses of rainfall distribution and storm evolution are presented for flood events in the eastern United States and used to motivate new directions for stochastic modeling of rainfall. Tropical cyclones are an important element of the upper tail of flood peak distributions throughout the eastern United States, but their relative importance varies widely, and abruptly, in space over the region. Nonstationarities and long-term persistence of flood peak and rainfall distributions are examined from the perspective of the impacts of human-induced climate change on flood-generating mechanisms. Analyses of flood frequency for the eastern United States, which are based on observations from a dense network of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging stations, provide insights into emerging problems in flood science.

Investigating the Global Monsoon by networks of extreme rainfall events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Strnad ◽  
Bedartha Goswami
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Precise Representation

<p>A defining feature of the Earth’s climate is the annual variation of heavy precipitation and convergent wind circulation in the tropics and subtropics. This dominant mode of hemispherically distributed rainfall is often termed the 'global monsoon', comprising of regional monsoon systems on every continent. Monsoon regions are defined using<strong> </strong>annual precipitation differences and average seasonality rather than by the dynamical similarities of rainfall dynamics<strong>; </strong>they thus<strong> </strong>fail to (i) consider global patterns of extreme rainfall events (EREs), and (ii) take into account spatio-temporal similarities in timing and intensity of monsoonal circulation.</p><p>In this work, we investigate the dynamics of the Global Monsoon using the framework of complex networks derived from extreme rainfall events. In particular, we use time-delayed event synchronization applied to the GPCP rainfall dataset to first extract a network of global ERE teleconnections. We then identify regions with similar ERE patterns by applying<strong> </strong>on the global ERE network a Bayesian hierarchical clustering approach based on the stochastic block model.</p><p>Our work presents evidence to place different monsoon regions in a global context and therefore to describe them as a unified system with common underlying dynamics: Besides known teleconnections, our method captures various differently resolved representations of the global weather system. These range from a description containing two clusters separated by the hemispheric equator to a precise representation of distinguishable but connected monsoon regions. We argue that the global monsoon can be regarded as a hierarchical complex system into which regional monsoons are embedded in intermediate levels of the clustering hierarchy.</p>

scholarly journals Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna M. Jalowska ◽  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Jared H. Bowden
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
First Century ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractIn the past quarter-century, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) experienced several devastating tropical cyclones that led to widespread flooding and damage. Historical climate records reflect an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across the eastern U.S., which is projected to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. Potential changes to extreme rainfall across ENC are explored and quantified for 2025–2100 for three tropical cyclones using an approach based on relative changes in future extreme rainfall frequencies (return periods) from dynamically downscaled projections. Maximum rainfall intensities at ‘2100’ could increase locally by 168%, with widespread regional increases in total rainfall up to 44%. Although these magnitudes exceed the consensus in the literature, the values here are comparable to the most extreme rainfall events observed in the U.S. during the early twenty-first century, which suggests that the intensity of projected future events is already a present-day reality.

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