scholarly journals Impact of Assimilating Upper-Level Dropsonde Observations Collected during the TCI Field Campaign on the Prediction of Intensity and Structure of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (8) ◽  
pp. 3069-3089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Feng ◽  
Xuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The dropsondes released during the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field campaign provide high-resolution kinematic and thermodynamic measurements of tropical cyclones within the upper-level outflow and inner core. This study investigates the impact of these upper-level TCI dropsondes on analyses and prediction of Hurricane Patricia (2015) during its rapid intensification (RI) phase using an ensemble–variational data assimilation system. In the baseline experiment (BASE), both kinematic and thermodynamic observations of TCI dropsondes at all levels except the upper levels are assimilated. The upper-level wind and thermodynamic observations are assimilated in additional experiments to investigate their respective impacts. Compared to BASE, assimilating TCI upper-level wind observations improves the accuracy of outflow analyses verified against independent atmospheric motion vector (AMV) observations. It also strengthens the tangential and radial wind near the upper-level eyewall. The inertial stability within the upper-level eyewall is enhanced, and the maximum outflow is more aligned toward the inner core. Additionally, the analyses including the upper-level thermodynamic observations produce a warmer and drier core at high levels. Assimilating both upper-level kinematic and thermodynamic observations also improves the RI forecast. Compared to BASE, assimilating the upper-level wind induces more upright and inward-located eyewall convection, resulting in more latent heat release closer to the warm core. This process leads to stronger inner-core warming. Additionally, the initial warmer upper-level inner core produced by assimilating TCI thermodynamic observations also intensifies the convection and latent heat release within the eyewall, thus further contributing to the improved intensity forecasts.

scholarly journals Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008): Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Implications for the Roles of Intense Convection and Moisture Conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1402-1424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Li ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Numerical Predictions ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The sensitivity of numerical simulations of the genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008) to initial conditions is examined using the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The initial and boundary conditions are derived from two different global analyses at different lead times. One simulation successfully captures the processes of Nuri’s genesis and early intensification, whereas other simulations fail to predict the genesis of Nuri. Discrepancies between simulations with and without Nuri’s development are diagnosed. Significant differences are found in the development and organization of the intense convection during Nuri’s pregenesis phase. In the developing case, convection evolves and organizes into a “pouch” center of a westward-propagating wavelike disturbance. In the nondeveloping case, the convection fails to develop and organize. Favorable conditions for the development of deep convection include strong closed circulation patterns with high humidity, especially at the middle levels. An additional set of sensitivity experiments is performed to examine the impact of the moisture field on numerical simulations of Nuri’s genesis. Results confirm that the enhancement of mid- to upper-level moisture is favorable for Nuri’s genesis, mainly because moist conditions benefit deep convection, which produces diabatic heating from latent heat release when vertical airmass flux maxima occur in the mid- to upper-level atmosphere. The substantial warming at upper levels induced by latent heat release from persistent deep convection contributes to the drop in Nuri’s minimum central sea level pressure. Overall, results from this study demonstrate that it is essential to accurately represent the initial conditions in numerical predictions of tropical cyclone genesis.

scholarly journals Recent Advances in Our Understanding of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Processes from Airborne Observations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 650
Author(s):  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Change Processes ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Secondary Eyewall Formation ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Upper Level

Recent (past ~15 years) advances in our understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change processes using aircraft data are summarized here. The focus covers a variety of spatiotemporal scales, regions of the TC inner core, and stages of the TC lifecycle, from preformation to major hurricane status. Topics covered include (1) characterizing TC structure and its relationship to intensity change; (2) TC intensification in vertical shear; (3) planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes and air–sea interaction; (4) upper-level warm core structure and evolution; (5) genesis and development of weak TCs; and (6) secondary eyewall formation/eyewall replacement cycles (SEF/ERC). Gaps in our airborne observational capabilities are discussed, as are new observing technologies to address these gaps and future directions for airborne TC intensity change research.

scholarly journals The Poleward Motion of Extratropical Cyclones from a Potential Vorticity Tendency Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 1687-1707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Talia Tamarin ◽  
Yohai Kaspi
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Growth Stage ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Propagation Time ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Tendency Analysis

Abstract The poleward propagation of midlatitude storms is studied using a potential vorticity (PV) tendency analysis of cyclone-tracking composites, in an idealized zonally symmetric moist GCM. A detailed PV budget reveals the important role of the upper-level PV and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. During the growth stage, the classic picture of baroclinic instability emerges, with an upper-level PV to the west of a low-level PV associated with the cyclone. This configuration not only promotes intensification, but also a poleward tendency that results from the nonlinear advection of the low-level anomaly by the upper-level PV. The separate contributions of the upper- and lower-level PV as well as the surface temperature anomaly are analyzed using a piecewise PV inversion, which shows the importance of the upper-level PV anomaly in advecting the cyclone poleward. The PV analysis also emphasizes the crucial role played by latent heat release in the poleward motion of the cyclone. The latent heat release tends to maximize on the northeastern side of cyclones, where the warm and moist air ascends. A positive PV tendency results at lower levels, propagating the anomaly eastward and poleward. It is also shown here that stronger cyclones have stronger latent heat release and poleward advection, hence, larger poleward propagation. Time development of the cyclone composites shows that the poleward propagation increases during the growth stage of the cyclone, as both processes intensify. However, during the decay stage, the vertical alignment of the upper and lower PV anomalies implies that these processes no longer contribute to a poleward tendency.

Double warm-core structure and potential vorticity diagnosis during the rapid intensification of Supertyphoon Lekima (2019)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donglei Shi ◽  
Guanghua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Deep Layer ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Pv Generation

AbstractThe rapid intensification (RI) of supertyphoon Lekima (2019) is investigated from the perspective of balanced potential vorticity (PV) dynamics using a high-resolution numerical simulation. The PV budget shows that the inner-core PV anomalies (PVAs) formed during the RI mainly comprise an eyewall PV tower generated by diabatic heating, a high-PV bridge extending into the eye resulting from the PV mixing, and an upper-tropospheric high-PV core induced by the PV intrusion from stratosphere. The inversion of the total PVA at the end of the RI captures about 90% of changes in pressure and wind fields, indicating that the storm is quasi-balanced. The piecewise PV inversion further demonstrates that the eyewall and mixed PVAs induce the upper-level and midlevel warm cores in the eye region, respectively. The two warm cores cause nearly all the balanced central pressure decrease and thus dominate the RI, with the contribution of the upper warm core being twice that of the midlevel one. In contrast, the upper-tropospheric PV core induces significant warming near the tropopause and deep-layer cooling beneath, reinforcing the upper-level warm core but causing little surface pressure drop.By comparing the diabatic PV generation due to the convective burst (CB) and non-CB precipitation, we found that the non-CB precipitation accounts for a larger portion for the eyewall PVA and thus the associated upper-level warming, distinct from previous studies that primarily attributed the upper-level warm-core formation to the CB. Nevertheless, CBs act to be more efficient PV generators due to their vigorous latent heat release and are thus favorable for RI.

scholarly journals Numerical Study of Explosively Developing Extratropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Region

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (2) ◽  
pp. 712-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akira Kuwano-Yoshida ◽  
Yoshio Asuma
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Moisture Distribution ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Northwestern Pacific Ocean ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Numerical simulations of six explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific Ocean region are conducted using a regional mesoscale numerical model [the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)]. Cyclones are categorized according to the locations where they form and develop: Okhotsk–Japan Sea (OJ) cyclones originate over the eastern Asian continent and develop over the Sea of Japan or the Sea of Okhotsk, Pacific Ocean–land (PO–L) cyclones also form over the Asian continent and develop over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and Pacific Ocean–ocean (PO–O) cyclones form and develop over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Two cases (the most extreme and normal deepening rate cases for each cyclone type) are selected and simulated. Simulations show that the extreme cyclone of each type is characterized by a different mesoscale structure and evolutionary path, which strongly reflect the larger-scale environment: an OJ cyclone has the smallest deepening rates, associated with a distinct upper-level shortwave trough, a clear lower-level cold front, and a precipitation area that is far from the cyclone center; a PO–L cyclone has moderate deepening rates with high propagation speeds under zonally stretched upper-level jets; and a PO–O cyclone has the strongest deepening rates associated with large amounts of precipitation near its center. Sensitivity experiments involving the latent heat release associated with water vapor condensation show that PO–O cyclones rarely develop without a release of latent heat and their structures are drastically different from the control runs, while OJ cyclones exhibit almost the same developments and have similar structures to the control runs. These tendencies can be seen in both extreme and normal deepening rate cases. These results reveal that the importance of latent heat release to explosive cyclone development varies among the cyclone types, as is reflected by the cyclone origin, frontal structure, moisture distribution, and jet stream configuration.

scholarly journals The Influence of Incipient Latent Heat Release on the Precipitation Distribution of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. East Coast Cyclone

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (7) ◽  
pp. 1913-1937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Brennan ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Precipitation Distribution ◽  
Balanced Flow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The role of a diabatically produced lower-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) maximum in determining the precipitation distribution of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. East Coast cyclone is investigated. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models performed poorly with this storm, even within 24 h of the event, as they were unable to properly forecast the westward extent of heavy precipitation over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. The development of an area of incipient precipitation (IP) around 0600 UTC 24 January over the southeastern United States prior to rapid cyclogenesis was also poorly forecasted by the operational NWP models. It is hypothesized that the lower-tropospheric diabatic PV maximum initially produced by the IP was important to subsequent inland moisture transport over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. A PV budget confirms that latent heat release in the midtroposphere associated with the IP led to the initial formation of a PV maximum in the lower troposphere that propagated eastward in association with the IP to the Atlantic coast late on 24 January. The impact of this PV maximum on the westward moisture transport was quantified by piecewise Ertel PV inversion. Results from the inversion show that the balanced flow associated with this evolving cyclonic PV maximum contributed substantially to the onshore moisture flux into the Carolinas and Virginia. The balanced flow associated with the PV anomaly also contributed to quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent in the region. These findings suggest that accurate numerical prediction of the precipitation distribution in this event requires adequate representation of the IP and its associated impacts on the PV distribution.

scholarly journals Potential-vorticity dynamics of troughs and ridges within Rossby wave packets during a 40-year reanalysis period

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 535-559
Author(s):  
Franziska Teubler ◽  
Michael Riemer
Keyword(s):  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Divergent Flow ◽  
Moist Processes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are fundamental to midlatitude dynamics and govern weather systems from their individual life cycles to their climatological distributions. Renewed interest in RWPs as precursors to high-impact weather events and in the context of atmospheric predictability motivates this study to revisit the dynamics of RWPs. A quantitative potential-vorticity (PV) framework is employed. Based on the well-established PV thinking of midlatitude dynamics, the processes governing RWP amplitude evolution comprise group propagation of Rossby waves, baroclinic interaction, the impact of upper-tropospheric divergent flow, and direct diabatic PV modification by nonconservative processes. An advantage of the PV framework is that the impact of moist processes is more directly diagnosed than in alternative, established frameworks for RWP dynamics. The mean dynamics of more than 6000 RWPs from 1979–2017 are presented using ERA5 data, complemented with nonconservative tendencies from the Year of Tropical Convection data (available 2008–2010). Confirming a pre-existing model of RWP dynamics, group propagation within RWPs is consistent with linear barotropic theory, and baroclinic and divergent amplifications occur most prominently during the mature stage and towards the trailing edge of RWPs. Refining the pre-existing model, the maximum of divergent amplification occurs in advance of maximum baroclinic growth, and baroclinic interaction tends to weaken RWP amplitude towards the leading edge. “Downstream baroclinic development” is confirmed to provide a valid description of RWP dynamics in both summer and winter, although baroclinic growth is substantially smaller (about 50 %) in summer. Longwave radiative cooling makes a first-order contribution to ridge and trough amplitude, with the potential that this contribution is partly associated with cloud-radiative effects. The direct impact of other nonconservative tendencies, including latent heat release, is an order of magnitude smaller than longwave radiative cooling. Arguably, latent heat release still has a substantial impact on RWPs by invigorating upper-tropospheric divergence. The divergent flow amplifies ridges and weakens troughs. This impact is of leading order and larger than that of baroclinic growth. To the extent that divergence is associated with latent heat release below, our results show that moist processes contribute to the well-known asymmetry in the spatial scale of troughs and ridges. For ridges, divergent amplification is strongly coupled to baroclinic growth and enhanced latent heat release. We thus propose that the life cycle of ridges is best described in terms of downstream moist-baroclinic development. Consistent with theories of moist-baroclinic instability, both the amplitude and the relative location of latent heat release within the developing wave pattern depend on the state of the baroclinic development. Taking this “phasing” aspect into account, we provide some evidence that variability in the strength of divergent ridge amplification can predominantly be attributed to variability in latent heat release below rather than to secondary circulations associated with the dry dynamics of a baroclinic wave.

scholarly journals The influence of the coastal front on heavy rainfall events along the east coast

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Chasity B. Henson
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Frontal Boundary

Coastal fronts are commonly found along the East Coast of the United States and can often be associated with intense rainfall and flooding due to elevated convection on the cold side of the boundary. Five heavy rainfall events ([greater to or equal than] 250 mm 24 hr-1) during the fall months along the East Coast were investigated using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to determine the influence of an upper-level trough/cut-off low, an offshore tropical cyclone, a frontal boundary, and a moisture plume on the intense precipitation. Using experimental NWP simulations, it was determined that the tropical cyclone had an impact on the moisture plume and subsequent location of precipitation due to an associated deformation zone. The tropical cyclone prolonged the events by 6 hours, but inhibited the amount of moisture and resulting precipitation by deterring southeasterly flow. Evaporation from precipitation (surface heat fluxes) contributed to less than 25% (33%) of the precipitation, while latent heat release had the largest impact on the rain totals due to positive feedback from convection and an influence on the frontal boundary. Terrain also impacted the frontal boundary in each event, altering precipitation totals. Parcel trajectories confirmed regions of frontogenesis to be the main source of lift for the release of gravitational instability and convective initiation in each event, while the extratropical cyclone provided upper-level support for ascent and organized the plume of deep tropospheric moisture perpendicular to the front. Three of the five events lasted multiple days due to negative PV advection by the irrotational wind, in response to latent heat release in the region of convection, acting to slow the propagation of the upper-level low.

scholarly journals Potential-Vorticity Dynamics of Troughs and Ridges within Rossby Wave Packets during a 40-year reanalysis period

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Teubler ◽  
Michael Riemer
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Heat Release ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
Latent Heat Release ◽  
Divergent Flow ◽  
Moist Processes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are fundamental to midlatitude dynamics and govern weather systems from their individual life cycles to their climatological distributions. Renewed interest in RWPs as precursors to high-impact weather events and in the context of atmospheric predictability motivates this study to revisit the dynamics of RWPs. A quantitative potential vorticity (PV) framework is employed. Based on the well established PV-thinking of midlatitude dynamics, the processes governing RWP amplitude evolution comprise group propagation of Rossby waves, baroclinic interaction, the impact of upper-tropospheric divergent flow, and direct diabatic PV modification by nonconservative processes. An advantage of the PV framework is that the impact of moist processes is more directly diagnosed than in alternative, established frameworks for RWP dynamics. The mean dynamics of more than 6000 RWPs from 1979–2017 are presented using ERA5 data, complemented with nonconservative tendencies from the Year of tropical convection data (available 2008–2010). Confirming a pre-existing model of RWP dynamics, group propagation within RWPs is consistent with linear barotropic theory, and baroclinic and divergent amplification occur most prominently during the mature stage and rather towards the trailing edge of RWPs. Refining the pre-existing model, the maximum of divergent amplification occurs in advance of max-imum baroclinic growth and baroclinic interaction tends to weaken RWP amplitude towards the leading edge. Downstream baroclinic development is confirmed to provide a valid description of RWP dynamics in both, summer and winter, although baroclinic growth is substantially smaller (about 50 %) in summer. Longwave radiative cooling makes a first-order contribution to ridge and trough amplitude. This large impact, however, is not coupled to other governing processes and is thus interpreted as a climatological background process. The direct impact of other nonconservative tendencies, including latent heat release, is an order of magnitude smaller than longwave radiative cooling. Arguably, latent heat release still has a substantial impact on RWPs by invigorating upper-troposhperic divergence. The divergent flow amplifies ridges and weakens troughs. This impact is of leading order and larger than that of baroclinic growth. To the extent that divergence is associated with latent heat release below, we argue that moist processes contribute to the well-known asymmetry in the spatial scale of troughs and ridges. For ridges, divergent amplification is strongly coupled to baroclinic growth and enhanced latent heat release. We thus propose that the life cycle of ridges is best described in terms of downstream moist-baroclinic development. Finally, our results demonstrate that divergent ridge amplification does not only depend on the magnitude of latent heat release but also on its relative location (phasing). We have demonstrated that phasing is a function of the stage of the baroclinic life cycle. We thus further hypothesize that phasing is the most relevant aspect of the dry baroclinic dynamics, rather than the impact of secondary circulations that develop associated with the dry dynamics of a baroclinically developing wave.

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