Propaganda and Protest in Autocracies

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272097509
Author(s):  
Erin Baggott Carter ◽  
Brett L. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Popular Protest ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Initial Effect ◽  
Temporal Persistence ◽  
Over Time

Does propaganda reduce the rate of popular protest in autocracies? To answer this question, we draw on an original dataset of state-run newspapers from thirty countries, encompassing six languages and over four million articles. We find that propaganda diminishes the rate of protest, and that its effects persist over time. By increasing the level of pro-regime propaganda by one standard deviation, autocrats have reduced the odds of protest the following day by 15%. The half-life of this effect is between five and ten days, and very little of the initial effect persists after one month. This temporal persistence is remarkably consistent with campaign advertisements in democracies.

scholarly journals Election proximity and representation focus in party-constrained environments

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge M. Fernandes ◽  
Cristina Leston-Bandeira ◽  
Carsten Schwemmer
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Context ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Party Size ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Constrained Environments ◽  
Written Questions ◽  
Elected Representatives ◽  
Over Time

Do elected representatives have a time-constant representation focus or do they adapt their focus depending on election proximity? In this paper, we examine this overlooked theoretical and empirical puzzle by looking at how reelection-seeking actors adapt their legislative behavior according to the electoral cycle. In parliamentary democracies, representatives need to serve two competing principals: their party and their district. Our analysis hinges on how representatives make a strategic use of parliamentary written questions in a highly party constrained institutional context to heighten their reselection and reelection prospects. Using an original dataset of over 32000 parliamentary questions tabled by Portuguese representatives from 2005 to 2015, we examine how time interacts with two keys explanatory elements: electoral vulnerability and party size. Results shows that representation focus is not static over time and, in addition, that electoral vulnerability and party size shape strategic use of parliamentary questions.

Abstract P084: Neighborhood Characteristics and Changes in Systolic Blood Pressure Over Time: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 131 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulina Kaiser ◽  
Lynda Lisabeth ◽  
Philippa Clarke ◽  
Sara Adar ◽  
Mahasin Mujahid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Systolic Blood Pressure ◽  
Social Environment ◽  
Social Environments ◽  
Lower Baseline ◽  
Neighborhood Environments ◽  
Physical Activity Environments ◽  
Over Time

Introduction: Research on the association between neighborhood environments and systolic blood pressure (SBP) is limited, predominantly cross-sectional, and has produced mixed results. Investigating specific aspects of neighborhood environments in relation to changes in SBP may help to identify the most important interventions for reducing the population burden of hypertension. Hypothesis: Better neighborhood food, physical activity, and social environments will be associated with lower baseline levels of SBP and smaller increases in SBP over time. Methods: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis recruited participants from six sites in the U.S., aged 45-84 (mean 59) and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline. Those with non-missing data for key variables were included (N=5,997); the analytic sample was 52.5% female, 39.1% White, 27.3% Hispanic, 11.9% Black, and 21.7% Chinese, with median follow-up time of 9.2 years (IQR 4.5) and SBP measured at three or more exams for 91.3% of participants. SBP in subjects taking anti-hypertensive medication were replaced with multiply imputed estimates of unmedicated SBP, imputed at each exam. Summary measures of neighborhood food and physical activity environments incorporated survey-based scales (healthy food availability and walking environment) and GIS-based measures (density of favorable food stores and recreational resources). The summary measure of the social environment combined survey-based measures of social cohesion and safety. Neighborhoods were defined by a one-mile buffer around each participant’s home address. Linear mixed models were used to model associations of time-varying cumulative average neighborhood environmental summary measures with SBP over time, adjusting for individual-level covariates (demographics, individual- and neighborhood-level SES); models with and without adjustment for baseline SBP were used to evaluate associations of neighborhood environments with SBP trajectories. Results: In models mutually adjusted for all three neighborhood domains and covariates, living in a better physical activity environment was associated with lower SBP at baseline (-1.34 mmHg [95% CI: -2.24, -0.45] per standard deviation higher cumulative average physical activity summary score), while living in a better social environment was associated with higher SBP at baseline (1.00 mmHg [0.39, 1.63] per standard deviation higher); food environment scores were not associated with baseline SBP. After adjustment for baseline SBP, there was no association between any neighborhood environments and trajectories of SBP. Conclusions: Better food and physical activity environments were associated with lower baseline SBP, while better social environments were associated with higher baseline SBP. Neighborhood environments appear to have minimal direct effect on SBP trajectories.

Software for Statistical Meta-analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher H. Schmid ◽  
Gavin B. Stewart ◽  
Hannah R. Rothstein ◽  
Marc J. Lajeunesse ◽  
Jessica Gurevitch
Keyword(s):  
Half Life ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Research Synthesis ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
User Needs ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Graphical Display ◽  
Web Searches ◽  
General Purpose Software ◽  
Over Time

To conduct a meta-analysis, a researcher will need software to perform all but the simplest calculations. Three types of software can be used, depending on user needs: a spreadsheet, a general purpose statistical package, and a program developed expressly to carry out meta-analysis. This chapter first reviews the stand-alone programs, then discusses the general purpose software, and finally briefly reviews two programs that can extract the data underlying a graphical display. Readers need to keep in mind that software features, cost, and availability all change fairly rapidly over time; while some of the specific information provided may soon be out of date, the general issues and principles discussed in choosing software for meta-analysis will have a longer half-life. Web searches, the Methods sections of recent research syntheses, and professional meetings where research synthesis results and methods are presented, are good resources for keeping up with both software availability and developments in methodology.

Testing the Theory in Latin America

2020 ◽  
pp. 121-148
Author(s):  
Nicole Baerg
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Instrumental Variable Analysis ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Information Precision ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Over Time

This chapter moves from studying developed countries to a sample of countries in Latin America over time. The chapter presents evidence that an increase in the information environment, in terms of its level of precision, exerts an attenuating and significant effect on the mean and standard deviation of forecasters’ inflation expectations, ultimately lowering inflation outcomes. The finding is robust to the inclusion of policy credibility, persistence in inflation, economic output, and month and country effects. When conducting instrumental variable analysis, similarly signed results hold. The main results imply that an increase in information precision helps to lower aggregate levels of inflation and that the channel that this works through is by lowering the weight of prior expectations, as predicted by the theoretical argument. Importantly, the results persist even when considering a sample of countries with relatively variable inflation outcomes and less established (and therefore less credible) economic institutions.

scholarly journals University of Miami Radiocarbon Dates XVI

Radiocarbon ◽  
1979 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-483
Author(s):  
D S Introne ◽  
R Johnson ◽  
J J Stipp
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Isotopic Fractionation ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Marine Carbonates ◽  
Age Correction ◽  
University Of Miami ◽  
Reservoir Age ◽  
Modern Standard

Radiocarbon measurements have been continued on a variety of projects and materials. Chemical and counting procedures remain the same as indicated in R, v 20, p 274-282. Dates are calculated using the Libby 14C half-life of 5568 years; errors are reported as one-standard deviation (1σ) based only on statistical counting uncertainties in background, modern standard, and sample activities. All samples for which 13C/12C ratios are available are corrected for isotopic fractionation by normalizing to —25‰. A 400-year reservoir age correction has been applied to marine carbonates.

scholarly journals University of Miami Radiocarbon Dates VIII

Radiocarbon ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Piepgras ◽  
J J Stipp
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Partial List ◽  
University Of Miami

The following radiocarbon measurements are a partial list of projects and samples dated since January 1975. The technique used is described in R, v 16, pp 402-408 and R, v 18, pp 210-220. Dates are calculated using 14C half-life of 5568 yr and errors are reported as one-standard deviation.

scholarly journals National Physical Laboratory Radiocarbon Measurements IV

Radiocarbon ◽  
1966 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 340-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Callow ◽  
M. J. Baker ◽  
Geraldine I. Hassall
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Count Rate ◽  
National Physical Laboratory ◽  
Background Count ◽  
Best Value ◽  
Sample Count ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Absolute Age

The following list comprises measurements made since those reported in NPL III and is complete to the end of November 1965.Ages are relative to A.D. 1950 and are calculated using a half-life of 5568 yr. The measurements, corrected for fractionation (quoted δC13 values are relative to the P.D.B. standard), are referred to 0.950 times the activity of the NBS oxalic acid as contemporary reference standard. The quoted uncertainty is one standard deviation derived from a proper combination of the parameter variances as described in detail in NPL III. These variances are those of the standard and background measurements over a rolling twenty week period, of the sample δC14 and δC13 measurements and of the de Vries effect (assumed to add an additional uncertainty equivalent to a standard deviation of 80 yr). Any uncertainty in the half-life has been excluded so that relative C14 ages may be correctly compared. Absolute age assessments, however, should be made using the accepted best value for the half-life and the appropriate uncertainty then included. If the net sample count rate is less than 4 times the standard error of the difference between the sample and background count rates, a lower limit to the age is reported corresponding to a net sample count rate of 4 times the standard error of this difference.

scholarly journals Tartu Radiocarbon Dates XIII

Radiocarbon ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-158
Author(s):  
Arvi Liiva ◽  
Ilze Loze
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Oxalic Acid ◽  
Liquid Scintillation Counting ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Liquid Scintillation ◽  
Standard Sample ◽  
Scintillation Counting ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Modern Standard

This date list reports dates of archaeological samples of Mesolithic and Neolithic sites of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. We use liquid scintillation counting at the Geochemical and Statistical Laboratory of the Institute of Zoology and Botany, Estonian Academy of Sciences. Our modern standard is benzene enriched in 14C and its activity is checked with an NBS oxalic acid standard sample. Dates are given in conventional 14C years, based on the Libby half-life of 5570 ± 30 yr. AD 1950 is the reference year. Errors are based on one standard deviation calculated from count rates.

scholarly journals National Physical Laboratory Radiocarbon Measurements II

Radiocarbon ◽  
1964 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 25-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Callow ◽  
M. J. Baker ◽  
Daphne H. Pritchard
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Standard Error ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
National Physical Laboratory ◽  
Reference Standard ◽  
Best Value ◽  
Physical Laboratory ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Absolute Age

The following list comprises measurements made since those reported in NPL I and is complete to the end of November 1963.Ages are relative to a.d. 1950 and are calculated using a half-life of 5568 yr. The measurements have been corrected for fractionation and referred to 0.950 times the activity of the NBS oxalic acid as a contemporary reference standard. The quoted uncertainty is one standard deviation derived from a proper combination of the parameter variances, viz. those of the standard and background measurements over a rolling twenty-week period, of the sample measurements from at least three independent fillings, of the δC13 measurements and of the de Vries effect (assumed to add an additional uncertainty equivalent to a standard deviation of 80 yr). Any uncertainty in the half-life has been excluded so that relative C14 ages may be correctly compared. Absolute age assessments, however, should be made using the accepted best value for the half-life and the appropriate uncertainty included. If the net sample activity is less than 4 times the standard error of the difference between the sample and background activities, a lower limit to the age is reported equivalent to a sample activity of 4 times the standard error of this difference.The description of each sample is based on information provided by the person submitting the sample to the Laboratory.The work reported forms part of the research programme of the Laboratory and is published by permission of the Director.

Anaemia and physical and mental health in the very old: An individual participant data meta-analysis of four longitudinal studies of ageing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah Palapar ◽  
Ngaire Kerse ◽  
Anna Rolleston ◽  
Wendy P J den Elzen ◽  
Jacobijn Gussekloo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Cognitive Function ◽  
Functional Ability ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Very Old ◽  
Self Rated Health ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Objective To determine the physical and mental health of very old people (aged 80+) with anaemia. Methods Individual level meta-analysis from five cohorts of octogenarians (n = 2,392): LiLACS NZ Māori, LiLACS NZ non-Māori, Leiden 85-plus Study, Newcastle 85+ Study, and TOOTH. Mixed models of change in functional ability, cognitive function, depressive symptoms, and self-rated health over time were separately fitted for each cohort. We combined individual cohort estimates of differences according to the presence of anaemia at baseline, adjusting for age at entry, sex, and time elapsed. Combined estimates are presented as differences in standard deviation units (i.e. standardised mean differences–SMDs). Results The combined prevalence of anaemia was 30.2%. Throughout follow-up, participants with anaemia, on average, had: worse functional ability (SMD −0.42 of a standard deviation across cohorts; CI -0.59,-0.25); worse cognitive scores (SMD -0.27; CI -0.39,-0.15); worse depression scores (SMD -0.20; CI -0.31,-0.08); and lower ratings of their own health (SMD -0.36; CI -0.47,-0.25). Differential rates of change observed were: larger declines in functional ability for those with anaemia (SMD −0.12 over five years; CI -0.21,-0.03) and smaller mean difference in depression scores over time between those with and without anaemia (SMD 0.18 over five years; CI 0.05,0.30). Conclusion Anaemia in the very old is a common condition associated with worse functional ability, cognitive function, depressive symptoms, and self-rated health, and a more rapid decline in functional ability over time. The question remains as to whether anaemia itself contributes to worse outcomes or is simply a marker of chronic diseases and nutrient deficiencies.

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