scholarly journals The World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, a slowdown in the pace of expansion in the medium term is likely unless productivity growth picks up substantially. We retain our view that the medium term outlook is for growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.No economic outlook is without uncertainties. Issues such as increases in tariffs, the effect of the gradual removal of monetary accommodation and the prolonged persistence of low inflation, create potential for surprises to the forecast.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We expect global growth to continue at a similar rate in 2018 and 2019.We expect the pace of global economic expansion to slow to around 3.5 per cent a year in the medium term unless productivity growth picks up substantially.Although some advanced economies appear to be operating at close to full capacity and oil prices have increased, our expectation is that any rise in inflation will be muted. Central banks will only raise policy interest rates gradually.Recent announcements on tariff increases by the US and retaliations to these have added to the uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Ongoing trade talks create the potential for a rapidly changing situation which could create surprises to the global forecast outlook.

The World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
List Type ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Recent data suggests that the global growth cycle has probably peaked. We forecast world GDP growth of around 3.5 per cent a year over the next two years.On that basis, the second decade of the 21st century will have seen sustained global GDP growth.Tariff increases and trade disputes seem likely to act as a drag on the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Despite faster wage growth in advanced economies, the recent fall in oil prices has reduced the risks of inflation overshooting targets. We expect central banks to reduce monetary accommodation very gradually.

At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
List Type ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

The World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 243 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity

The global economy is expanding at its fastest pace since 2011. With momentum expected to carry into 2018, we have revised up our forecasts for growth in all of the major economies and regions.But with many economies operating at close to full capacity, some slowdown in the pace of expansion is likely unless productivity surprises on the upside. In the medium term the outlook remains for growth of around 3½ per cent a year.In some economies the cumulative effect of monetary easing is still at work but there are concerns that in some countries a tightening of capacity pressures may lead to increased inflationary impulses.

At a Glance …: The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
List Type ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy will grow by 3 per cent this year, and by 3.8 per cent in 2014.Growth has picked up slightly in advanced economies, while it has slowed in in key emerging market economies.Despite the clear improvements in some major economies, the risks to global growth are mostly on the downside.

At a Glance… The World Economy

2014 ◽  
Vol 228 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Ukraine Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Following growth of 3.1 per cent in 2013, the world economy is projected to expand by 3.6 per cent in 2014 and 3.9 per cent in 2015.Growth prospects have improved in most advanced economies, with the exception of Japan, although much of the Euro Area remains very depressed.Key risks include deflationary pressures in advanced economies, especially the Euro Area. Provided that it is contained, the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global economy is likely to be small.

At a Glance…: The World Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
List Type ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Falls ◽  
Economic Outlook

The world economy grew by 3.0 per cent in 2015, as indicated in our last two forecasts. It is now projected to grow only slightly faster this year, by 3.2 per cent, and by 3.8 per cent in 2017.In the advanced economies, the modest and uneven recovery is expected to continue, while many major emerging market economies continue to face significant challenges, with slower growth in some cases and deep recessions in others.The renewed decline in global oil prices in the past three months, accompanied by sharp falls in equity prices worldwide, have increased uncertainty about the global economic outlook.Recent falls in oil and other global commodity prices will lower inflation again in the short term, but should boost global demand while increasing the challenges faced by commodity producers.

Spillovers to the Global South

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global South ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Very High

The crisis demolished the myth that EDEs were decoupled from advanced economies and BRICS were becoming new engines of global growth. From 2011 onwards, with the end of the twin booms in commodity prices and capital inflows, growth in EDEs has converged downward towards the depressed levels of advanced economies from the very high levels achieved in the run-up to the global crisis and the immediate aftermath. Loss of momentum is particularly visible in economies that failed to manage the earlier booms prudently. In examining the spillovers from policies in major advanced economies and China to EDEs, the chapter introduces the notion of commodity-finance nexus wherein these markets reinforce each other during both expansions and contractions. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of policies needed to put the world economy into decent shape and to avoid liquidity and debt crises in EDEs.

At a Glance …: The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
List Type ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World

The world economy will grow by 3.1 per cent this year, and by 3.6 per cent in 2014: still below longer-term trend.Growth has slowed in key emerging market economies, particularly China, while it remains relatively weak in most advanced economies.A significant rise in the volatility and level of global long-term interest rates is inconvenient for some countries and may slow recovery.

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