scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We expect global growth to continue at a similar rate in 2018 and 2019.We expect the pace of global economic expansion to slow to around 3.5 per cent a year in the medium term unless productivity growth picks up substantially.Although some advanced economies appear to be operating at close to full capacity and oil prices have increased, our expectation is that any rise in inflation will be muted. Central banks will only raise policy interest rates gradually.Recent announcements on tariff increases by the US and retaliations to these have added to the uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Ongoing trade talks create the potential for a rapidly changing situation which could create surprises to the global forecast outlook.

scholarly journals The World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, a slowdown in the pace of expansion in the medium term is likely unless productivity growth picks up substantially. We retain our view that the medium term outlook is for growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.No economic outlook is without uncertainties. Issues such as increases in tariffs, the effect of the gradual removal of monetary accommodation and the prolonged persistence of low inflation, create potential for surprises to the forecast.

At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
List Type ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

At A Glance…: The world economy

2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.

The World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
List Type ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Recent data suggests that the global growth cycle has probably peaked. We forecast world GDP growth of around 3.5 per cent a year over the next two years.On that basis, the second decade of the 21st century will have seen sustained global GDP growth.Tariff increases and trade disputes seem likely to act as a drag on the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Despite faster wage growth in advanced economies, the recent fall in oil prices has reduced the risks of inflation overshooting targets. We expect central banks to reduce monetary accommodation very gradually.

The World Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 9-33
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Subprime Mortgages ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Growth

Defaults on subprime mortgages in the US have triggered jitters in global financial markets over the course of this year, leading to a sharp rise in certain types of risk premia over the summer. The Federal Reserve and the ECB responded by injecting emergency liquidity into money markets, on top of which the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. We expect the recent turbulence to be short-lived, and impacts on the real economy will be limited. We continue to expect global growth of 5.2 per cent this year, with a sharper slowdown in the US offset by persistently strong growth in China and a relatively robust outlook for Europe and Japan - despite disappointing outturns for the second quarter of 2007. Global growth is expected to ease to 4.7 per cent in 2008, reflecting more moderate growth in China and Europe. However, as annual global growth has exceeded 4.5 per cent in only nine years since 1970, global prospects continue to look promising. Risks to the outlook include a further rise in risk premia, which could potentially lead to major banking crises.

Monetary Policy and the Future of Central Banking

2021 ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
Mitsuhiro Furusawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Policy Frameworks ◽  
Forward Looking

The chapter highlights the state of monetary policy in Africa and explores the challenges that central banks face as they address the increasingly complex forces at work in the global economy. It sequences the evolution of monetary policy from the time of World War II under the Bretton Woods system to the more recent forward-looking monetary policy in advanced economies and relates it to influencing the evolution of monetary policy frameworks in Africa. Some challenges affecting African countries are identified, including the collapse of commodity prices, persistent high interest rates spreads, and limitations of high frequency data that constrain monetary authorities’ abilities to take corrective actions in a timely manner. The chapter concludes by providing seven principles towards increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy for countries seeking to move towards forward-looking monetary policy frameworks.

scholarly journals Global Outlook for 2018: Economy, Finance, and Monetary, with a Particular Case Study of Taiwan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shyi-Min Lu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Economic Growth

In October 2017, IMF President Christine Lagarde declared that the GDP growth of world’s economies in the first half of 2017 was up to the broadest recovery since 2010. So far, the strength of global economic growth has been enhancing. The interest rates and inflation are still at a low level. The global economy has risen from the bottom in 2016 to reach its peak since 2011. As for the degree of economic development, the emerging markets grew fastest, followed by the developing countries, while the advanced economies grew moderately at an average rate around 2%. Manufacturing PMI in major countries, such as the United States, China, the Eurozone, and even Taiwan, have increased above 50 notably in the recent years, while the non-manufacturing PMI is also above 50. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to forecast the global economy in 2018, which is on the trajectory of booming with a certain degree of uncertainty. A particular case study of Taiwan’s overall economic development is presented as well.

At a Glance …: The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
List Type ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World

The world economy will grow by 3.1 per cent this year, and by 3.6 per cent in 2014: still below longer-term trend.Growth has slowed in key emerging market economies, particularly China, while it remains relatively weak in most advanced economies.A significant rise in the volatility and level of global long-term interest rates is inconvenient for some countries and may slow recovery.

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