Spillovers to the Global South

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global South ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Very High

The crisis demolished the myth that EDEs were decoupled from advanced economies and BRICS were becoming new engines of global growth. From 2011 onwards, with the end of the twin booms in commodity prices and capital inflows, growth in EDEs has converged downward towards the depressed levels of advanced economies from the very high levels achieved in the run-up to the global crisis and the immediate aftermath. Loss of momentum is particularly visible in economies that failed to manage the earlier booms prudently. In examining the spillovers from policies in major advanced economies and China to EDEs, the chapter introduces the notion of commodity-finance nexus wherein these markets reinforce each other during both expansions and contractions. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of policies needed to put the world economy into decent shape and to avoid liquidity and debt crises in EDEs.

At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
List Type ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

Overall Consequences of Global Crisis

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pritam Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The Third ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

The world economy started slowing down since the third quarter of 2008 leading to economic crises worldwide. GDP declined from an average growth of 3 per cent during 2003-2007 to 1.5 per cent during 2008-2012. The decline of world GDP growth was the sharpest at 42 per cent during the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009. Not only capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies declined during this period, there has been significant shrinking of markets for developing country exports. This paper determines overall consequences and its policy implications of Global Crisis. Time period is 2003-2012, from these 2003-2007 is the pre crisis and 2008-2012 is the post crisis period. JEL CLASSIFICATIONS-, F1, F6

scholarly journals The World Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.

scholarly journals The World Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We continue to expect to see slightly faster global growth this year with momentum being carried forward. We expect growth to continue to be broadly based.With some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, a slowdown in the pace of expansion in the medium term is likely unless productivity growth picks up substantially. We retain our view that the medium term outlook is for growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.No economic outlook is without uncertainties. Issues such as increases in tariffs, the effect of the gradual removal of monetary accommodation and the prolonged persistence of low inflation, create potential for surprises to the forecast.

The World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
List Type ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Economic Outlook

Recent data suggests that the global growth cycle has probably peaked. We forecast world GDP growth of around 3.5 per cent a year over the next two years.On that basis, the second decade of the 21st century will have seen sustained global GDP growth.Tariff increases and trade disputes seem likely to act as a drag on the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Despite faster wage growth in advanced economies, the recent fall in oil prices has reduced the risks of inflation overshooting targets. We expect central banks to reduce monetary accommodation very gradually.

At a Glance …: The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
List Type ◽  
Market Economies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy will grow by 3 per cent this year, and by 3.8 per cent in 2014.Growth has picked up slightly in advanced economies, while it has slowed in in key emerging market economies.Despite the clear improvements in some major economies, the risks to global growth are mostly on the downside.

At a Glance…: The World Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
List Type ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Falls ◽  
Economic Outlook

The world economy grew by 3.0 per cent in 2015, as indicated in our last two forecasts. It is now projected to grow only slightly faster this year, by 3.2 per cent, and by 3.8 per cent in 2017.In the advanced economies, the modest and uneven recovery is expected to continue, while many major emerging market economies continue to face significant challenges, with slower growth in some cases and deep recessions in others.The renewed decline in global oil prices in the past three months, accompanied by sharp falls in equity prices worldwide, have increased uncertainty about the global economic outlook.Recent falls in oil and other global commodity prices will lower inflation again in the short term, but should boost global demand while increasing the challenges faced by commodity producers.

scholarly journals Commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez ◽  
Amalia Morales-Zumaquero
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractThis paper analyses the commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain for the global commodity price index and the indices of its main categories (i.e., agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy and metals) in the world, advanced and emerging economies. To do so, the study considers country-by-country vector autoregression models and pool the results by taking weighted means for 18 advanced economies and 19 emerging countries, as well as for the world (defined as the sum of advanced and emerging economies). The results show the following: (i) there is evidence in favour of partial pass-through from commodity prices to producer prices, although the evidence for the pass-through to consumer prices is less evident; (ii) the pass-through in the world seems to be led by both advanced and emerging countries for producer prices and only by advanced economies for consumer prices; (iii) higher prices in the four categories (agricultural raw materials only in the short-run) induce significant higher producer prices in almost all cases, with shocks in the prices of energy and metals showing the largest effects; and (iv) energy prices explain the highest variability of producer and consumer prices.

scholarly journals Prospects for Vietnam’s Economy in 2013

2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 02-11
Author(s):  
NGÂN TRẦN HOÀNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Restructuring ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

In 2012, Vietnam?s economy faced great challenges. The world economy experienced more difficulties and complicated upheavals. International trade fell drastically while global growth rate was lower than predicted target, which affected badly the Vietnamese economy because of its full integration into the world economy and large openness. In this context, principal targets set for 2013 are macroeconomic stability, lower inflation rate, higher growth rate, three strategic breakthroughs associated with restructuring of the economy, and a new economic growth model. This paper analyzes obstacles to Vietnam?s economic growth, and offers short-term solutions to bottlenecks and long-term ones to the economic restructuring.

Challenges of Global Crisis. Italy

2013 ◽  
pp. 67-80
Author(s):  
I. Semenenko ◽  
I. Labinskaya
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
The World

A new stage has been reached in assessing new global trends. It is necessary to evaluate the West’s experience and its adaptability to the rest of the world. This journal begins a series of publications analyzing some of the leading states. For a starter, we offer contemporary Italy. Participants of the seminar are well-known scholars working at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations I. Semenenko and K. Kholodkovskiy (the main speakers), N. Goffe, N. Kisovskaya, A. Avilova.

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