Chapter IV. Problems of the Medium Term

1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 64-74
Keyword(s):  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Wage Bargaining ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bargaining Process ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Large Current ◽  
Real Growth ◽  
The Uk

In Chapter I we considered the prospects for the UK economy until end-1977 on the usual assumptions of ‘unchanged policies’, though with two alternative assumptions about the outcome of the wage-bargaining process for the 1976/77 wage calendar. We argued that with restraint in nominal wages in 1977 there was a prospect of a continued moderate recovery in UK economic activity though there were still serious problems outstanding by the end of 1977—high unemployment and a large current account deficit. We also argued that without restraint in nominal wages the chances of a sustained pick-up in activity looked poor and real growth would be slowing down sharply in the course of 1977. On this latter assumption, medium-term issues barely arise since the UK would be once again plunged into a short-term crisis. In this Chapter, we address the central medium-term issue of what sort of recovery paths could reasonably be expected for the UK economy over the next five years and what implications these prospects have for policy.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1975 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 8-21
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
The Uk ◽  
European Economies

The economy appears to be reaching the bottom of the cycle. Industrial production after a precipitous drop in the second quarter has levelled off since May. Retail prices have decelerated to show month on month rises at annual rates near to 10 per cent since July. The current account deficit, after falling sharply from 1974 levels in the first half of the year, increased again in the third quarter to an annual rate of £2½ billion. The growth of M3 has recently started to exceed the inflation rate, which it has not done since 1973 IV. These indicators suggest that the UK is at this point lagging only a few months behind Japan and the USA and barely if at all behind the other major European economies (see Chapter 2). Unemployment, a lagging indicator, continues to rise in this country, but has started to turn down in the United States and appears to be levelling off in Japan, Germany and France.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 6-26
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The World

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1986. The second part looks at the medium term. It begins with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The NIESR econometric model is then used to analyse medium-term prospects for the home economy. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.

Chapter I. the Home Economy

1982 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 6-26
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
General Account ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Recent Developments

This chapter contains a brief general account of recent developments in the economy and a short-term forecast to end-1984. (A medium-term assessment is given in chapter 3.) Since our last forecast, published in the May issue, we have re-estimated, and in some cases also re-specified, many sectors of our econometric model. This has inevitably changed some of its properties.Two short notes are appended. The first discusses the company sector's current financial position and the implications of the forecast for profitability. The second describes the data on wage settlements which we compile as part of our regular assessment of trends in wages and earnings.

Chapter I. The Medium Term: Prospects and Problems

1980 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 6-19 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Strategy ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
To Come

The focus of interest of macroeconomic policy has been moving away from the short term towards the medium term. Partly this is because the present recession, already deeper than any experienced since the war, seems still to have some way to go, and the question is hotly debated when, and how strongly, a recovery may be expected to come. But, with the new government, there has also been a significant shift in the attitude towards management of the economy. The government's objectives for the medium term, enunciated in the Financial Statement and Budget Report 1980-81, are ‘to bring down the rate of inflation and to create conditions for a sustainable growth of output and employment’. This reduction in the rate of inflation is to be brought about by a ‘Medium-Term Financial Strategy’ which is based on the idea that the role of government should be to announce, and subsequently adhere to, a sequence of declining targets for £M3 and the PSBR.

Chapter I. The Short-Term Prospects for the Economy

1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 6-22
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Wage Bargaining ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
Special Means ◽  
The Social ◽  
Union Leaders ◽  
Present Rate ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

In this Chapter we carry out our normal short-term forecasting exercise, that is we forecast the prospects up to two years ahead on ‘unchanged policy’ assumptions. Particularly important among these is what will happen to wage bargaining after the £6 pay limit. The short term outlook seems to us to hinge critically on how earnings will grow from autumn 1976 onwards: but we have no special means of foretelling the outcome of the discussions now proceeding between the Chancellor and the trade union leaders. The solution we have adopted is to assume a 6 per cent growth in earnings from autumn 1976. This is well below the present rate, but it is a conceivable figure, though opinions would differ as to how likely it is that such a low figure will be achieved. In view of the importance of the question we also show the prospects for the economy if the social contract deliberations should go seriously wrong, and for that purpose we have assumed 20 per cent earnings growth from autumn 1976.

Chapter III. The British Economy in the Medium Term

1982 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 39-51
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Critical View ◽  
British Economy

The short-term outlook on ‘unchanged policies’ presented in chapter I of slow output growth, rising unemployment and little further reduction in inflation is not encouraging. But in order to form a critical view of policies formulated with medium-term objectives in view, it is necessary to look beyond the short term to see whether the economic ills of the recent past and immediate future could prove to be the foundations of lasting prosperity in, let us say, the mid-1980s. In this chapter we assess the economic strategy now being followed, and how the economy is likely to respond.

Chapter V. Incomes Policy

1976 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 75-79
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Union Leaders ◽  
Incomes Policy ◽  
Cent Case ◽  
Economic Forecasts

The economic forecasts in Chapter I, and the examination of the problems of the medium term in Chapter IV, provide the background for the discussion about the successor policy to the £6 limit. The negotiations with the trade union leaders (and surely at some stage also with the CBI) should cover not simply questions of earnings and prices, but questions of output and employment as well. A useful starting point for discussion would be a set of forecasts with different earnings assumptions, similar to the forecasts for the 6 per cent and 20 per cent case which have been presented in Chapter I. The important point which these alternative simulations make is that a bigger increase in money earnings leads to a short-term gain in real wages net of tax, followed by a longer-term loss which exceeds the short-term gain. It is very hard to persuade people that, collectively, they will be better off with lower than with higher increases in money earnings; but over a longer period it is clearly true.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1985 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 6-32
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The World

This chapter is in two parts. The first part contains discussion of the current situation and a short-term forecast to end-1987. The second part looks at the medium term, beginning with an analysis of probable trends in public expenditure over the next five years. The medium-term outlook for the rest of the world is discussed in chapter II.

Is money the creation of the state or the market? (On the “modern monetary theory” as described in the textbook by W. Mitchell, L. R. Wray and M. Watts “Macroeconomics”)

2020 ◽  
pp. 121-134
Author(s):  
S. A. Andryushin
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Scientific Concept ◽  
Monetary Theory ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stimulation Of

In 2019, a textbook “Macroeconomics” was published in London, on the pages of which the authors presented a new monetary doctrine — Modern Monetary Theory, MMT, — an unorthodox concept based on the postulates of Post-Keynesianism, New Institutionalism, and the theory of Marxism. The attitude to this scientific concept in the scientific community is ambiguous. A smaller part of scientists actively support this doctrine, which is directly related to state monetary and fiscal stimulation of full employment, public debt servicing and economic growth. Others, the majority of economists, on the contrary, strongly criticize MMT, arguing that the new theory hides simple left-wing populism, designed for a temporary and short-term effect. This article considers the origins and the main provisions of MMT, its discussions with the mainstream, criticism of the basic tenets of MMT, and also assesses possible prospects for the development of MMT in the medium term.

The Dynamics of the Short-Term Interest Rate in the UK

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diether W. Beuermann ◽  
Antonios Antoniou ◽  
Alejandro Bernales
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Uk
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