Bin Yang on the Global History of Cowries

Bin Yang correctly states that cowrie shells (250 species) and cowrie monies (two species mostly) deserve far more attention in global histories than they have received. He provides the most comprehensive view of the global history of cowries and cowrie monies to date. Multiple shell monies proliferated worldwide, but they did not concentrate within China (except Yunnan) nor within Europe. Why did specific cowries accumulate only in certain specific geographical locations? Yang establishes a general answer: cultural preferences for holding specific objects, including specific monies, determined where the shells were concentrated. He offers global evidence that, I argue, contradicts mainstream economic theory, which is based upon conceptual aggregation of diverse monies into amorphous stocks of (national or regional) money (singular). Yang demonstrates repeatedly that distinct market locations and distinct market prices existed for specific cowrie and other shell monies (plural) throughout global history. His evidence starkly demonstrates inadequacies of mainstream monetary theory (although he does not say as much). The relentless evidence of the existence of monetary disaggregation, evidence highlighted throughout Yang’s volume, demonstrates an urgent need for alternative monetary theories that portray prices and stocks of individual monies in conformity with empirical evidence provided by archival historians.

Modern monetary theory for the post-pandemic NHS: why budget deficits do not matter

NHS clinical directors are responsible for balancing departmental budgets, which can encompass staffing, equipment and operating theatres. As trust income is generally fixed, expenditure reduction is often attempted via recurrent cost improvement plans. In orthodox monetary theory, a departmental deficit contributes first to the hospital, then to the NHS, then to the national deficit. In the orthodox view, governments in deficit need to increase taxes and/or borrow money by issuing bonds (akin to mortgage loans), the interest on which is paid off for generations. Modern monetary theory offers a different perspective: government deficits do not matter as much as orthodox theory claims, if at all. This is because governments have the monopoly right to create the money in which the deficit is denominated (so do not ever need to borrow something that they can create). Therefore governments cannot default on debt in their own currency. Furthermore, government deficits equate to private surplus. This new perspective should influence microeconomic budget management at the clinical director level: the new emphasis being to deliver value and not just implement local savings to eliminate departmental deficits. This approach will become increasingly important in managing the huge surgical waiting lists that have accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Debt to GDP Ratio from the Perspective of MMT

In this note we examine the debt to GDP ratio from the perspective of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) by a simple macroeconomic model with savings by government bonds instead of money. Mainly we will show the following results. 1) In order to maintain full employment under economic growth, the budget deficit, including interest payments on government bonds, must be positive; and if the budget deficit is smaller than this value, there will be recession with involuntary unemployment. 2) Under full employment the debt to GDP ratio approaches to a finite value over time. 3) In the underemployment case the national income is determined by the budget deficit. 4) The excessive budget deficit causes inflation. 6) In order to recover full employment from recession we need budget deficit larger than that when full employment is maintained. 5) The budget deficit, including interest payments on government bonds, equals the increase of the savings of consumers between periods (generations); and this result holds whether we have full employment or not, whether we have inflation or not. Then, the ratio of the national debt to GDP in a period is smaller than one, and even if one period constitutes of several years, the debt to GDP ratio in a year is finite.

On Budget Deficit under Economic Growth: Towards a Mathematical Model of MMT

Recently, a school of thought called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been attracting attention, but it has not received much theoretical or mathematical analysis. In this paper, we examine the theoretical validity of the MMT argument using an overlapping generations (OLG) model that includes economic growth due to population growth, and give a generally positive evaluation of MMT. The basic idea is that a certain level of continuous budget deficit is necessary to maintain full employment when the economy is growing, that inflation occurs when the budget deficit exceeds that level, that a recession occurs when the budget deficit falls below that level, and involuntary unemployment occurs. In order to recover from a recession, a budget deficit in excess of that level is required, and that deficit need not be covered by a future budget surplus. The same can be said for growth resulting from technological progress.

A Brief Rationale for MMT Arguments

In this note we examine MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) arguments by a simple macroeconomic model without microeconomic foundation. Mainly we will show the following results. 1) In the underemployment case the national income is determined by the budget deficit. 2) In the full employment case we can define the budget deficit which is necessary and sufficient to achieve full employment. 3) The excessive budget deficit causes inflation. 4) We need budget deficit to achieve and maintain full employment under economic growth. 5) We can recover recession by the budget deficit which is larger than that when full employment is maintained. Also, we show that the budget deficit equals the increase in the savings between generations.

Notas sobre ‘As Falhas da Modern Monetary Theory’ de Ricardo Carneiro

Esta nota comenta o artigo ‘As Falhas da Modern Monetary Theory’ escrito pelo Professor da Unicamp Ricardo Carneiro, e publicado nesta Brazilian Keynesian Review. Debatem-se concordâncias e discordâncias com o cerne do artigo bem como avançam-se alguns pontos não tratados por ele, mas que se julgam relevantes numa apreciação das falhas da Modern Monetary Theory.

Die Modern Monetary Theory

Zusammenfassung Das vorliegende Kapitel diskutiert die Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) und den Beitrag, den sie zu einer aufgeklärten Debatte über fortschrittsorientierte Finanzpolitik leisten kann. Im ersten Abschnitt dieses Kapitels legen wir drei zentrale theoretische Fundamente der MMT dar: Geld als soziale Rechnungseinheit, Währungssouveränität und effektive Nachfrage. Im zweiten Abschnitt erläutern wir, wie der deutsche Staat alltäglich seine Finanzpolitik ausführt. Hier wird deutlich, dass der Staat weder Ersparnisse der Haushalte noch Kredite des privaten Bankensektors benötigt, um seine Ausgaben tätigen zu können. Wir folgern im Hinblick auf einen Green New Deal aus MMT-Perspektive, dass politische Debatten über die Verfügbarkeit und Planung von Ressourcen geführt werden müssen, wenn wir die Produktion in unserer demokratischen Gesellschaft erfolgreich transformieren wollen.

The Economic Consequences of Banking Crises: The Role of Central Banks and Optimal Independence

A large literature establishes the benefits of central bank independence, yet very few have shown directly negative economic consequences. Furthermore, while prevailing monetary theory suggests CBI should enhance management of economic distress, I argue that independent central banks exhibit tepid responsiveness to banking instability due to a myopic focus on inflation. I show that banking crises produce larger unemployment shocks and credit and stock market contractions when the level of central bank independence is high. Further, I show that these significant economic costs are mitigated when central banks do not have the inflation-centric policy mandates predominantly considered necessary. When the bank has high operational and political independence, banks’ whose policy mandate does not rigidly prioritize inflation produce significantly better outcomes during banking crises. At the same time, I show that this configuration does not produce higher inflation, suggesting it achieves a more flexible design without incurring significant costs.