Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 104 ◽  
pp. 21-31
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Mild Conditions ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face

It is always difficult to distinguish the trend of output in the early months of the year, as much depends on the weather. This year, it seems fairly clear that relatively mild conditions in January in a number of countries, notably the US and West Germany, contributed significantly to recovery both in industrial production and, more especially, in construction from the depressed levels of the previous quarter. But it is not possible to isolate this influence on the statistics from that of falling interest rates or as yet to judge how far it may have been balanced, in terms of the first quarter as a whole, by unseasonably cold weather later on. Gratification at what seems on the face of it to have been an encouraging start to the year must be tempered by reservations about its reliability as an indication of what is to follow.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Minor Extent

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 117 ◽  
pp. 20-29
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Final Demand ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Cold Winter ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Initial Effect ◽  
Small Rise

Fuller data confirm the impression which we formed in May that OECD countries' total output did not change much in the first quarter. It probably increased by about ¼ per cent, with even this small rise attributable wholly to stock movements in the US. Final demand in the US fell and there were declines in total output in a number of countries, including Japan, Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and possibly Italy (for which there are conflicting estimates), white France achieved only marginal growth. The fall was notably severe in Germany, where construction suffered badly in the cold winter. This probably had a wider impact also, and, in North America at least, the initial effect of the slump in oil prices seems to have been depressive, with drilling activity sharply reduced, especially in the US. There may also have been a tendency for expenditure, perhaps on investment in particular, to be deferred in the expectation of falling prices and interest rates.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 20-39
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Early Indicators

Our February forecast suggested that developments in the short term would be dominated by fears of accelerating inflation and policy responses to them. This has indeed been the case. In Japan, Germany and the US wholesale prices have begun to rise relatively rapidly. Although commodity prices, especially of metals and minerals and of developed country foods, have fallen in recent weeks, at least in dollar terms they remain high and oil prices appear to have hit temporary peaks at the beginning of the quarter. These developments are the result of demand pressure. Our equations for real commodity prices, which were reported in the August 1988 issue of the Review, do have rather strong influences from world industrial production in then. As commodity prices are more timely than figures for demand and output they have often been early indicators of rising demand and we believe that they are currently, and correctly, filling this role.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 18-29
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Growth ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Considerable Improvement ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Small Growth ◽  
Trade Sector

After a disappointing first quarter in which, in broad terms, the small growth in output in the OECD area could be attributed wholly to stock movements in the US, the second quarter brought a considerable improvement. Though US stockbuilding was much smaller, OECD countries' total GDP appears to have risen by about 1 per cent, with notably rapid growth in major countries where output had fallen in the first quarter (Germany especially, Japan, France and, on some estimates, Italy). This acceleration, based largely on consumers' expenditure, was moreover achieved in the face of adverse developments in the foreign trade sector, with many non-OECD countries, the oil producers in particular, reducing the volume of their imports to compensate in part for a worsening in their terms of trade.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1985 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 20-30
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It now seems clear that there was no more than marginal growth in the overall output of the OECD countries in the first quarter. Exceptionally severe weather in Europe and in some areas of the US partly explains the sharpness of the deceleration, its effects being most clearly seen in a 5 per cent fall in construction. But though growth in the second quarter was almost certainly faster, it seems equally probable that there was no very marked rebound. For the first half of the year as a whole the annual rate of increase in industrial production, for example, was probably of the order of 1 1/2 per cent. This compares with as much as 3 per cent predicted by OECD in mid-April.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 21-32
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The growth of US GNP, which in the first quarter was responsible for the greater part of an increase of the order of 1½ per cent in the output of the whole OECD area, slowed down somewhat in the second quarter but it was still exceptionally fast. With the help mainly of sustained growth in Japan it probably kept total OECD output growing, despite the depressing effects of major strikes in West Germany and the UK. The deceleration in the US mainly reflected a reduction in stockbuilding, which in the first quarter had made the biggest contribution to the growth of demand both there and in West Germany and France.

At A Glance…: The world economy

2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Growth

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.

At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
List Type ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Global Growth

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

AT a Glance … The World Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

World growth remains below trend at 3.3 per cent in 2013 and 3.7 per cent in 2013, little changed from our previous forecast.World trade will only grow slightly faster, and again below trend.The Euro Area will grow only slightly next year, while Japan is forecast to grow by 1.4 per cent, the US by 2.4 per cent, and China by 7.3 per cent.Interest rates will remain extremely low by historical standards, and inflationary pressures will remain subdued.

The World Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 28-57
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It is now quite clear that growth slowed in Europe around the end of 1995, and that it remained low in the first quarter of 1996. However, the most recent information suggests that the slowdown is likely to prove temporary. Early indicators for the second quarter suggest that growth has begun to accelerate, much in line with our forecast published in May. We have made no further adjustment to our forecast for EU wide growth this year, with output still expected to rise by around 1½ per cent this year and around 2¾–3 per cent next year. Recent exchange rate developments should help support demand, as the D-mark, the French franc and other currencies within the D-mark bloc have all depreciated against the dollar in the last few months. A number of economies in Europe appear to have some spare capacity, and can increase output, whilst the US is operating at or above capacity, and a reduction in demand should ease incipient inflationary pressures rather more than it reduces output. The depreciation of the D-mark has been associated with a loosening of monetary policy, with short-term interest rates in Germany being a full point lower than they were a year ago. French short-term interest rates have fallen much more, reflecting the disappearance of a significant risk premium last year. The loosening of policy was timely, and should help offset the deflationary pressures that have come from a slowdown in stock accumulation in both France and Germany and from low investment, especially in Germany.

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